Tennessee State
OVC · 2–1
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +14.7 avg | × 27% | +4.0 |
| Opponents faced | -25.9 avg | × 27% | -7.1 |
| Preseason prior | -4.7 | × 73% | -3.4 |
| Power | -6.5 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | N | Murray State | L 64–94 | -12.9 | -17.1 | -2.8 |
| 2 | vs | East-West University non-D1 | W 127–61 | +29.7 | +36.3 | -0.5 |
| 3 | vs | Fisk non-D1 | W 123–73 | +29.7 | +20.3 | +0.2 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | -3.4 | |||||
| Power | -6.5 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at | Tennessee | -37.9 | 0% |
| 4 | at | South Florida | -23.3 | 2% |
| 5 | at | Oklahoma State | -25.7 | 1% |
| 6 | N | Grambling | +5.2 | 68% |
| 6 | N | Florida A&M | +14.2 | 90% |
| 7 | at | Western Illinois | +12.5 | 87% |
| 10 | at | Southern Indiana | +3.3 | 62% |
| 10 | at | Eastern Illinois | +4.2 | 65% |
Season by season
Best finish: #115 in 2015–16. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 23–10 | #183 of 365 · -1.52 | – |
| 2024–25 | 17–16 | #244 of 364 · -5.84 | – |
| 2023–24 | 18–15 | #281 of 362 · -7.19 | – |
| 2022–23 | 18–14 | #287 of 363 · -7.80 | – |
| 2021–22 | 14–18 | #277 of 358 · -7.45 | – |
| 2020–21 | 4–19 | #311 of 347 · -11.03 | – |
| 2019–20 | 16–15 | – | #228 of 353 · 5.78 |
| 2018–19 | 7–21 | – | #302 of 353 · -31.47 |
| 2017–18 | 15–15 | – | #180 of 351 · 33.74 |
| 2016–17 | 17–13 | – | #126 of 351 · 56.30 |
| 2015–16 | 20–11 | – | #115 of 351 · 63.94 |
| 2014–15 | 5–26 | – | #342 of 351 · -70.11 |
| 2013–14 | 5–25 | – | #303 of 351 · -28.08 |
| 2012–13 | 16–14 | – | #147 of 347 · 38.70 |
| 2011–12 | 19–11 | – | #127 of 345 · 54.62 |
| 2010–11 | 14–16 | – | #231 of 346 · 8.05 |
| 2009–10 | 9–23 | – | #290 of 335 · -24.29 |
| 2008–09 | 12–18 | – | #282 of 330 · -18.32 |
| 2007–08 | 15–17 | – | #191 of 328 · 20.78 |
| 2006–07 | 12–20 | – | #248 of 326 · -7.19 |
| 2005–06 | 13–15 | – | #196 of 326 · 22.46 |
| 2004–05 | 13–17 | – | #214 of 326 · 14.17 |