Texas State
Pac-12 · 5–4 · 3–2 in conference · MRI Classic #46
Who to root for this week
The games this week that move its playoff odds most, and the side to cheer. Other teams’ games only; its own game is in the schedule below. How these are worked out.
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Oregon Stateat
Boise State
Playoff odds0.9% if they win · 0.4% if not +0.5 pts
Hidden HeismanBrad Jackson · Week 9How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 4). After 9 games, w is 69%, so the preseason prior is 31% of this rating. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +8.4 avg | × 69% | +5.8 |
| Opponents faced | -1.7 avg | × 69% | -1.2 |
| Preseason prior | +1.3 | × 31% | +0.4 |
| Power | +5.0 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at | Texas | L 7–59 | -25.9 | -26.1 | -1.2 |
| 2 | vs | UTSA | L 26–31 | +6.7 | -11.7 | -0.6 |
| 3 | vs | North Texas | W 49–35 | +5.0 | +9.0 | +1.4 |
| 4 | vs | Incarnate Word FCS | W 63–10 | +41.7 | +11.3 | +0.8 |
| 5 | at | San Diego State | L 29–31 | +9.2 | -11.2 | -0.6 |
| 7 | vs | Colorado State | W 66–27 | +21.3 | +17.7 | +1.9 |
| 8 | vs | Utah State | W 20–17 | +13.8 | -10.8 | -0.4 |
| 9 | at | Boise State | L 45–46 | -9.4 | +8.4 | +1.0 |
| 10 | at | Oregon State | W 42–21 | +1.2 | +19.8 | +2.3 |
| Preseason prior (31% of the rating) | +0.4 | |||||
| Power | +5.0 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | vs | Fresno State | +7.4 | 67% |
| 12 | vs | Washington State | +16.1 | 84% |
Hidden Heisman
The week’s biggest game from outside the power conferences, from a player the Heisman odds were not talking about. How it is picked.
| Season | Wk | Player | Opponent | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9 | Brad Jackson | vs Boise State | 327 pass, 4 TD · 54 rush, 1 TD |
Coaches
| Coach | Years | Record | Mean added |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Franchione | 2012–2015 | 20-28 | -4.3 |
| Everett Withers | 2016–2018 | 7-28 | -8.7 |
| Jake Spavital | 2019–2022 | 13-35 | -6.6 |
| G.J. Kinne | 2023–2026 | 28-20 | +3.5 |
Season by season
Best finish: #65 in 2024. 14 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 150 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7–6 | #72 of 136 · -1.50 | – |
| 2024 | 8–5 | #65 of 134 · 0.15 | – |
| 2023 | 8–5 | #88 of 133 · -5.18 | – |
| 2022 | 4–8 | #118 of 131 · -14.89 | – |
| 2021 | 4–8 | #119 of 130 · -17.25 | – |
| 2020 | 2–10 | #111 of 128 · -13.71 | – |
| 2019 | 3–9 | #122 of 130 · -21.63 | #121 of 130 · -41.65 |
| 2018 | 3–9 | #126 of 130 · -22.39 | #106 of 130 · -24.92 |
| 2017 | 2–10 | #129 of 130 · -27.38 | #123 of 130 · -57.41 |
| 2016 | 2–10 | #128 of 128 · -28.14 | #128 of 128 · -76.91 |
| 2015 | 3–9 | #113 of 128 · -19.42 | #117 of 128 · -39.27 |
| 2014 | 7–5 | #93 of 128 · -10.21 | #67 of 128 · 20.76 |
| 2013 | 6–6 | #108 of 125 · -16.09 | #90 of 126 · -5.61 |
| 2012 | 4–8 | #106 of 124 · -14.68 | #101 of 124 · -17.30 |