North Texas
American · 7–2 · 5–0 in conference · MRI Classic #25
Who to root for this week
The games this week that move its playoff odds most, and the side to cheer. Other teams’ games only; its own game is in the schedule below. How these are worked out.
-
Oregon Stateat
Boise State
Playoff odds6.9% if they win · 2.6% if not +4.3 pts -
UNLVat
New Mexico
Playoff odds4.2% if they win · 3.4% if not +0.8 pts
Hidden HeismanJahiem White · Week 4How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 4). After 9 games, w is 69%, so the preseason prior is 31% of this rating. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +13.8 avg | × 69% | +9.6 |
| Opponents faced | -8.6 avg | × 69% | -5.9 |
| Preseason prior | -1.8 | × 31% | -0.6 |
| Power | +3.1 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at | Indiana | L 16–52 | -20.3 | -15.7 | -1.2 |
| 2 | vs | UNLV | W 44–6 | +12.2 | +25.8 | +2.4 |
| 3 | at | Texas State | L 35–49 | -5.0 | -9.0 | -0.8 |
| 4 | vs | Houston Christian FCS | W 63–14 | +39.8 | +9.2 | -0.2 |
| 5 | at | Tulsa | W 45–44 | +2.2 | -1.2 | +0.2 |
| 6 | vs | Charlotte | W 50–10 | +29.2 | +10.8 | +1.2 |
| 8 | at | Navy | W 49–39 | +4.1 | +5.9 | +0.9 |
| 9 | vs | Florida Atlantic | W 48–41 | +12.1 | -5.1 | +0.1 |
| 10 | vs | Rice | W 52–23 | +22.1 | +6.9 | +1.1 |
| Preseason prior (31% of the rating) | -0.6 | |||||
| Power | +3.1 | |||||
Remaining schedule
Hidden Heisman
The week’s biggest game from outside the power conferences, from a player the Heisman odds were not talking about. How it is picked.
| Season | Wk | Player | Opponent | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4 | Jahiem White | vs Houston Christian | 133 rush, 4 TD |
Coaches
Mean added leaves out 1978–1980, the first seasons rated, which have no preseason prior to measure against.
| Coach | Years | Record | Mean added |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden Fry | 1978 | 9-2 | – |
| Jerry Moore | 1979–1980 | 11-11 | – |
| Bob Tyler | 1981 | 2-9 | -6.9 |
| Corky Nelson | 1982 | 2-9 | -6.5 |
| Matt Simon | 1995–1997 | 11-22 | -4.9 |
| Darrell Dickey | 1998–2006 | 42-64 | -4.7 |
| Todd Dodge | 2007–2010 | 6-37 | -6.5 |
| Dan McCarney | 2011–2015 | 22-32 | -5.2 |
| Seth Littrell | 2016–2022 | 44-44 | -1.9 |
| Eric Morris | 2023–2025 | 22-16 | +4.2 |
| Neal Brown | 2026 | 7-2 | +1.7 |
Season by season
Best finish: #23 in 1978. 35 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 150 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12–2 | #42 of 136 · 7.33 | – |
| 2024 | 6–7 | #98 of 134 · -7.63 | – |
| 2023 | 5–7 | #105 of 133 · -9.18 | – |
| 2022 | 7–7 | #82 of 131 · -4.11 | – |
| 2021 | 6–7 | #101 of 130 · -9.89 | – |
| 2020 | 4–6 | #119 of 128 · -18.14 | – |
| 2019 | 4–8 | #106 of 130 · -11.06 | #102 of 130 · -9.28 |
| 2018 | 9–4 | #78 of 130 · -2.44 | #35 of 130 · 45.07 |
| 2017 | 9–5 | #98 of 130 · -9.26 | #77 of 130 · 14.36 |
| 2016 | 5–8 | #117 of 128 · -17.83 | #111 of 128 · -26.84 |
| 2015 | 1–11 | #126 of 128 · -26.72 | #126 of 128 · -77.10 |
| 2014 | 4–8 | #102 of 128 · -12.19 | #116 of 128 · -28.11 |
| 2013 | 9–4 | #59 of 125 · 1.72 | #26 of 126 · 59.88 |
| 2012 | 4–8 | #102 of 124 · -12.51 | #92 of 124 · -4.89 |
| 2011 | 5–7 | #104 of 120 · -14.03 | #83 of 120 · 4.01 |
| 2010 | 3–9 | #107 of 120 · -18.07 | #94 of 120 · -12.37 |
| 2009 | 2–10 | #114 of 120 · -20.77 | #105 of 120 · -14.06 |
| 2008 | 1–11 | #120 of 120 · -31.09 | #120 of 120 · -87.61 |
| 2007 | 2–10 | #118 of 119 · -23.94 | #117 of 120 · -43.26 |
| 2006 | 3–9 | #115 of 119 · -21.44 | #111 of 119 · -36.35 |
| 2005 | 2–9 | #114 of 119 · -21.31 | #106 of 119 · -26.84 |
| 2004 | 7–5 | #90 of 117 · -10.01 | #76 of 117 · 13.72 |
| 2003 | 9–4 | #67 of 117 · -1.91 | #45 of 117 · 43.68 |
| 2002 | 8–5 | #73 of 117 · -3.97 | – |
| 2001 | 5–7 | #94 of 117 · -12.47 | – |
| 2000 | 3–8 | #108 of 116 · -20.13 | – |
| 1999 | 2–9 | #109 of 114 · -21.48 | – |
| 1998 | 3–8 | #98 of 112 · -16.44 | – |
| 1997 | 4–7 | #103 of 112 · -19.61 | – |
| 1996 | 5–6 | #104 of 111 · -22.39 | – |
| 1995 | 2–9 | #105 of 108 · -28.50 | – |
| 1981 | 2–9 | #96 of 136 · -6.17 | – |
| 1980 | 6–5 | #56 of 138 · 1.39 | – |
| 1979 | 5–6 | #84 of 138 · -3.28 | – |
| 1978 | 9–2 | #23 of 138 · 9.58 | – |