UCF
Big 12 · 5–4 · 3–3 in conference · MRI Classic #82
Who to root for this week
Nothing this weekend moves the needle.
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 4). After 9 games, w is 69%, so the preseason prior is 31% of this rating. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +1.6 avg | × 69% | +1.1 |
| Opponents faced | +0.7 avg | × 69% | +0.5 |
| Preseason prior | -2.2 | × 31% | -0.7 |
| Power | +0.9 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs | Bethune-Cookman FCS | W 73–6 | +37.6 | +29.4 | +0.3 |
| 2 | at | Pittsburgh | L 7–12 | -8.6 | +3.6 | +0.2 |
| 3 | vs | Georgia State | W 44–30 | +13.0 | +1.0 | +0.5 |
| 4 | vs | TCU | W 21–13 | -2.3 | +10.3 | +1.1 |
| 5 | at | Houston | L 17–27 | -14.5 | +4.5 | +0.1 |
| 6 | at | Oklahoma State | L 28–42 | -9.1 | -4.9 | -0.6 |
| 8 | vs | BYU | W 39–31 | -10.9 | +18.9 | +1.7 |
| 9 | vs | Baylor | L 9–41 | -7.3 | -24.7 | -2.1 |
| 10 | at | Kansas | W 33–32 | -3.1 | +4.1 | +0.4 |
| Preseason prior (31% of the rating) | -0.7 | |||||
| Power | +0.9 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | vs | Arizona State | +3.5 | 58% |
| 12 | vs | Iowa State | +2.5 | 56% |
| 13 | at | Colorado | +3.3 | 58% |
Coaches
| Coach | Years | Record | Mean added |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gene McDowell | 1996–1997 | 10-12 | +4.5 |
| Mike Kruczek | 1998–2003 | 36-30 | -2.9 |
| George O'Leary | 2004–2015 | 81-68 | -1.4 |
| Scott Frost | 2016–2017 | 19-7 | +14.3 |
| Josh Heupel | 2018–2020 | 28-8 | +4.5 |
| Gus Malzahn | 2021–2024 | 28-24 | +0.3 |
| Scott Frost | 2025–2026 | 10-11 | +1.7 |
Season by season
Best finish: #8 in 2018. 30 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 150 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5–7 | #71 of 136 · -1.24 | – |
| 2024 | 4–8 | #55 of 134 · 4.21 | – |
| 2023 | 6–7 | #44 of 133 · 5.72 | – |
| 2022 | 9–5 | #42 of 131 · 7.48 | – |
| 2021 | 9–4 | #49 of 130 · 5.18 | – |
| 2020 | 6–4 | #22 of 128 · 13.09 | – |
| 2019 | 10–3 | #16 of 130 · 16.49 | #11 of 130 · 82.35 |
| 2018 | 12–1 | #10 of 130 · 17.43 | #8 of 130 · 81.55 |
| 2017 | 13–0 | #17 of 130 · 15.95 | #9 of 130 · 95.52 |
| 2016 | 6–7 | #76 of 128 · -4.12 | #63 of 128 · 21.22 |
| 2015 | 0–12 | #117 of 128 · -20.40 | #127 of 128 · -82.54 |
| 2014 | 9–4 | #47 of 128 · 5.01 | #42 of 128 · 39.90 |
| 2013 | 12–1 | #28 of 125 · 11.45 | #19 of 126 · 67.40 |
| 2012 | 10–4 | #35 of 124 · 7.73 | #17 of 124 · 64.48 |
| 2011 | 5–7 | #60 of 120 · 1.36 | #48 of 120 · 31.90 |
| 2010 | 11–3 | #42 of 120 · 5.83 | #19 of 120 · 64.99 |
| 2009 | 8–5 | #72 of 120 · -3.45 | #57 of 120 · 27.40 |
| 2008 | 4–8 | #89 of 120 · -9.01 | #99 of 120 · -18.15 |
| 2007 | 10–4 | #54 of 119 · 3.04 | #23 of 120 · 60.64 |
| 2006 | 4–8 | #101 of 119 · -12.38 | #97 of 119 · -8.55 |
| 2005 | 8–5 | #87 of 119 · -8.86 | #62 of 119 · 28.27 |
| 2004 | 0–11 | #113 of 117 · -21.15 | #116 of 117 · -50.20 |
| 2003 | 3–9 | #104 of 117 · -16.24 | #110 of 117 · -43.34 |
| 2002 | 7–5 | #65 of 117 · 0.30 | – |
| 2001 | 6–5 | #60 of 117 · 1.51 | – |
| 2000 | 7–4 | #71 of 116 · -2.59 | – |
| 1999 | 4–7 | #78 of 114 · -5.57 | – |
| 1998 | 9–2 | #45 of 112 · 4.36 | – |
| 1997 | 5–6 | #60 of 112 · -1.18 | – |
| 1996 | 5–6 | #93 of 111 · -13.96 | – |