San José State
Mountain West · 1–2
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -1.6 avg | × 27% | -0.4 |
| Opponents faced | -4.4 avg | × 27% | -1.2 |
| Preseason prior | -6.3 | × 73% | -4.6 |
| Power | -6.2 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs | UTSA | W 95–74 | +6.2 | +14.8 | +1.0 |
| 2 | at | UC Irvine | L 79–91 | -12.0 | -0.0 | -0.6 |
| 3 | vs | UC Riverside | L 75–80 | +3.1 | -8.1 | -2.0 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | -4.6 | |||||
| Power | -6.2 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | vs | Alabama State | +13.0 | 88% |
| 4 | vs | Fresno State | +4.0 | 64% |
| 5 | N | Loyola Chicago | -1.7 | 44% |
| 5 | at | Utah Valley | -12.4 | 13% |
| 6 | vs | Seattle U | -1.8 | 44% |
| 7 | vs | Long Beach State | +5.5 | 69% |
| 7 | vs | Southern Utah | +3.0 | 61% |
| 8 | at | Stanford | -21.1 | 3% |
Season by season
Best finish: #142 in 2022–23. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 9–24 | #247 of 365 · -6.02 | – |
| 2024–25 | 15–20 | #200 of 364 · -2.37 | – |
| 2023–24 | 9–23 | #246 of 362 · -5.22 | – |
| 2022–23 | 21–14 | #142 of 363 · 1.85 | – |
| 2021–22 | 8–23 | #326 of 358 · -12.03 | – |
| 2020–21 | 5–16 | #338 of 347 · -16.20 | – |
| 2019–20 | 6–24 | – | #338 of 353 · -65.25 |
| 2018–19 | 3–27 | – | #348 of 353 · -100.70 |
| 2017–18 | 4–26 | – | #329 of 351 · -48.45 |
| 2016–17 | 14–16 | – | #229 of 351 · 12.60 |
| 2015–16 | 9–22 | – | #276 of 351 · -14.74 |
| 2014–15 | 2–28 | – | #347 of 351 · -101.35 |
| 2013–14 | 7–24 | – | #326 of 351 · -47.75 |
| 2012–13 | 8–20 | – | #293 of 347 · -27.04 |
| 2011–12 | 8–22 | – | #294 of 345 · -25.90 |
| 2010–11 | 17–16 | – | #182 of 346 · 32.02 |
| 2009–10 | 14–17 | – | #203 of 335 · 17.37 |
| 2008–09 | 13–17 | – | #203 of 330 · 21.18 |
| 2007–08 | 13–19 | – | #235 of 328 · -1.32 |
| 2006–07 | 5–25 | – | #298 of 326 · -35.85 |
| 2005–06 | 6–25 | – | #253 of 326 · -7.06 |
| 2004–05 | 6–23 | – | #313 of 326 · -56.63 |