Arkansas-Pine Bluff
SWAC · 0–3
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -40.3 avg | × 27% | -11.0 |
| Opponents faced | +20.6 avg | × 27% | +5.6 |
| Preseason prior | -18.0 | × 73% | -13.0 |
| Power | -18.4 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at | California Baptist | -11.0 | 16% |
| 4 | at | USC | -41.4 | 0% |
| 4 | at | Arkansas State | -18.3 | 5% |
| 5 | at | South Dakota | -8.9 | 21% |
| 5 | at | Missouri | -40.5 | 0% |
| 6 | at | Saint Louis | -40.1 | 0% |
Season by season
Best finish: #184 in 2009–10. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 13–19 | #340 of 365 · -14.69 | – |
| 2024–25 | 6–25 | #363 of 364 · -21.15 | – |
| 2023–24 | 13–18 | #328 of 362 · -12.69 | – |
| 2022–23 | 10–21 | #340 of 363 · -13.05 | – |
| 2021–22 | 7–24 | #353 of 358 · -18.37 | – |
| 2020–21 | 4–21 | #340 of 347 · -17.60 | – |
| 2019–20 | 3–26 | – | #347 of 353 · -99.97 |
| 2018–19 | 12–19 | – | #314 of 353 · -39.48 |
| 2017–18 | 14–21 | – | #333 of 351 · -61.85 |
| 2016–17 | 7–25 | – | #346 of 351 · -90.37 |
| 2015–16 | 8–25 | – | #350 of 351 · -88.48 |
| 2014–15 | 12–20 | – | #329 of 351 · -48.72 |
| 2013–14 | 13–18 | – | #312 of 351 · -33.85 |
| 2012–13 | 16–14 | – | #255 of 347 · -11.27 |
| 2011–12 | 11–22 | – | #309 of 345 · -40.00 |
| 2010–11 | 7–24 | – | #338 of 346 · -80.16 |
| 2009–10 | 18–16 | – | #184 of 335 · 29.33 |
| 2008–09 | 13–18 | – | #285 of 330 · -21.90 |
| 2007–08 | 13–18 | – | #302 of 328 · -38.87 |
| 2006–07 | 12–19 | – | #270 of 326 · -16.77 |
| 2005–06 | 13–16 | – | #259 of 326 · -9.31 |
| 2004–05 | 7–20 | – | #305 of 326 · -42.18 |