Georgia State
Sun Belt · 1–3
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 4 games, w is 33%, so the preseason prior is 67% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +5.8 avg | × 33% | +1.9 |
| Opponents faced | -8.8 avg | × 33% | -2.9 |
| Preseason prior | -8.3 | × 67% | -5.6 |
| Power | -6.6 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs | Bowling Green | L 73–76 | -2.1 | -0.9 | -1.2 |
| 2 | at | Charlotte | L 67–77 | -9.5 | -0.5 | -0.6 |
| 2 | vs | Andrew non-D1 | W 111–61 | +29.6 | +20.4 | +1.1 |
| 3 | at | Fresno State | L 92–95 | -2.2 | -0.8 | -0.3 |
| Preseason prior (67% of the rating) | -5.6 | |||||
| Power | -6.6 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | vs | Norfolk State | +11.9 | 86% |
| 4 | at | Jacksonville State | -5.7 | 30% |
| 5 | N | Tulane | -1.1 | 46% |
| 5 | N | Florida Gulf Coast | -1.8 | 44% |
| 6 | at | UL Monroe | +8.1 | 77% |
| 8 | at | James Madison | -8.3 | 22% |
| 8 | at | Pittsburgh | -19.3 | 4% |
| 10 | vs | Southern Miss | +1.7 | 56% |
Season by season
Best finish: #40 in 2014–15. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 10–22 | #301 of 365 · -10.60 | – |
| 2024–25 | 14–19 | #256 of 364 · -6.50 | – |
| 2023–24 | 14–17 | #204 of 362 · -3.29 | – |
| 2022–23 | 10–21 | #265 of 363 · -6.38 | – |
| 2021–22 | 18–11 | #118 of 358 · 3.87 | – |
| 2020–21 | 16–6 | #105 of 347 · 5.36 | – |
| 2019–20 | 17–13 | – | #123 of 353 · 51.98 |
| 2018–19 | 23–10 | – | #129 of 353 · 50.44 |
| 2017–18 | 24–11 | – | #96 of 351 · 76.26 |
| 2016–17 | 20–13 | – | #122 of 351 · 57.05 |
| 2015–16 | 16–14 | – | #184 of 351 · 30.70 |
| 2014–15 | 25–10 | – | #40 of 351 · 111.55 |
| 2013–14 | 25–9 | – | #52 of 351 · 101.30 |
| 2012–13 | 14–16 | – | #188 of 347 · 23.30 |
| 2011–12 | 21–11 | – | #69 of 345 · 89.56 |
| 2010–11 | 12–19 | – | #202 of 346 · 22.86 |
| 2009–10 | 12–20 | – | #206 of 335 · 16.93 |
| 2008–09 | 12–20 | – | #250 of 330 · -3.45 |
| 2007–08 | 9–21 | – | #249 of 328 · -7.28 |
| 2006–07 | 11–20 | – | #286 of 326 · -29.89 |
| 2005–06 | 7–22 | – | #285 of 326 · -21.53 |
| 2004–05 | 13–15 | – | #223 of 326 · 10.17 |