The MRI
2026–27 · Week 3

Kennesaw State

CUSA · 4–0

Power+2.1#128 of 365
Résumé+0.73#50 · wins above average
Movement+4up from #132 last week
Best winAustin Peay (71–69)
Schedule faced-18.3 avg opponent
Schedule ahead-2.5 avg opponent
Returning production26% of last season's win shares · #157 of 364 · counted against its preseason rating
Incoming production8.4 win shares from other schools' players
Recruiting class#110 in the country

How this rating is built

Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 4 games, w is 33%, so the preseason prior is 67% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.

PartValueWeightAdds
Margin counted+20.3 avg× 33%+6.8
Opponents faced-18.3 avg× 33%-6.1
Preseason prior+2.1× 67%+1.4
Power+2.1

This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.

Results

Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.

WkOpponentResult ExpectedPerfAdds
2 vs Midway University non-D1 W 116–57 +38.2 +20.8 +0.5
2 vs Austin Peay W 71–69 +4.5 -2.5 -0.4
3 vs Winthrop W 88–79 +9.1 -0.1 +0.1
3 vs LaGrange non-D1 W 107–54 +38.2 +14.8 +0.5
Preseason prior (67% of the rating)+1.4
Power+2.1

Remaining schedule

WkOpponent ProjectedWin prob
4 at Alabama -25.5 1%
4 vs SE Louisiana +15.3 92%
5 N Eastern Michigan +5.4 69%
6 vs Florida A&M +25.7 99%
10 vs Western Kentucky +3.0 61%
10 vs Middle Tennessee +7.7 76%
11 vs Jacksonville State +8.9 79%
12 at Sam Houston -0.2 49%

Season by season

Best finish: #122 in 2022–23. 17 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.

25 1 400 2009–10 (MRI Classic): #278 of 335 (13-20)2010–11 (MRI Classic): #321 of 346 (8-23)2011–12 (MRI Classic): #335 of 345 (3-28)2012–13 (MRI Classic): #334 of 347 (3-27)2013–14 (MRI Classic): #342 of 351 (6-25)2014–15 (MRI Classic): #339 of 351 (10-22)2015–16 (MRI Classic): #277 of 351 (11-20)2016–17 (MRI Classic): #236 of 351 (14-18)2017–18 (MRI Classic): #295 of 351 (10-20)2018–19 (MRI Classic): #344 of 353 (4-26)2019–20 (MRI Classic): #351 of 353 (1-28)2020–21 (MRI 2.0): #330 of 347 (5-19)2021–22 (MRI 2.0): #223 of 358 (13-18)2022–23 (MRI 2.0): #122 of 363 (26-9)2023–24 (MRI 2.0): #206 of 362 (15-16)2024–25 (MRI 2.0): #160 of 364 (19-14)2025–26 (MRI 2.0): #138 of 365 (21-14) MRI 2.0Classic 2009–10 2025–26

Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.

SeasonRec MRI 2.0MRI Classic
2025–26 21–14 #138 of 365 · 2.02 –
2024–25 19–14 #160 of 364 · -0.05 –
2023–24 15–16 #206 of 362 · -3.46 –
2022–23 26–9 #122 of 363 · 3.35 –
2021–22 13–18 #223 of 358 · -3.43 –
2020–21 5–19 #330 of 347 · -13.93 –
2019–20 1–28 – #351 of 353 · -128.94
2018–19 4–26 – #344 of 353 · -87.67
2017–18 10–20 – #295 of 351 · -21.24
2016–17 14–18 – #236 of 351 · 10.14
2015–16 11–20 – #277 of 351 · -15.82
2014–15 10–22 – #339 of 351 · -64.94
2013–14 6–25 – #342 of 351 · -73.08
2012–13 3–27 – #334 of 347 · -73.00
2011–12 3–28 – #335 of 345 · -76.67
2010–11 8–23 – #321 of 346 · -53.89
2009–10 13–20 – #278 of 335 · -17.68