UTSA
American · 2–1
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +5.8 avg | × 27% | +1.6 |
| Opponents faced | -7.0 avg | × 27% | -1.9 |
| Preseason prior | -12.6 | × 73% | -9.2 |
| Power | -9.5 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at | San José State | L 74–95 | -6.2 | -14.8 | -2.4 |
| 2 | vs | VMI | W 70–68 | +6.7 | -4.7 | -1.7 |
| 3 | at | Seattle U | W 86–59 | -11.0 | +38.0 | +3.8 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | -9.2 | |||||
| Power | -9.5 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | vs | Texas State | -8.9 | 21% |
| 4 | vs | Florida A&M | +14.1 | 90% |
| 4 | vs | Air Force | +4.2 | 65% |
| 5 | vs | Army | +3.8 | 63% |
| 5 | at | SIU Edwardsville | -7.7 | 24% |
| 10 | at | Minnesota | -26.1 | 1% |
Season by season
Best finish: #139 in 2020–21. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 5–25 | #341 of 365 · -14.83 | – |
| 2024–25 | 12–19 | #225 of 364 · -4.10 | – |
| 2023–24 | 11–21 | #289 of 362 · -7.83 | – |
| 2022–23 | 10–22 | #310 of 363 · -9.73 | – |
| 2021–22 | 10–22 | #294 of 358 · -8.71 | – |
| 2020–21 | 15–11 | #139 of 347 · 2.04 | – |
| 2019–20 | 10–19 | – | #239 of 353 · 2.45 |
| 2018–19 | 14–14 | – | #172 of 353 · 29.88 |
| 2017–18 | 20–15 | – | #174 of 351 · 38.73 |
| 2016–17 | 14–19 | – | #239 of 351 · 7.13 |
| 2015–16 | 5–27 | – | #345 of 351 · -78.30 |
| 2014–15 | 14–16 | – | #168 of 351 · 36.63 |
| 2013–14 | 8–22 | – | #319 of 351 · -39.71 |
| 2012–13 | 10–22 | – | #297 of 347 · -30.41 |
| 2011–12 | 18–14 | – | #151 of 345 · 45.57 |
| 2010–11 | 20–14 | – | #193 of 346 · 27.49 |
| 2009–10 | 19–11 | – | #150 of 335 · 46.21 |
| 2008–09 | 19–13 | – | #155 of 330 · 39.16 |
| 2007–08 | 13–17 | – | #240 of 328 · -4.35 |
| 2006–07 | 7–22 | – | #307 of 326 · -46.38 |
| 2005–06 | 11–17 | – | #212 of 326 · 14.58 |
| 2004–05 | 15–13 | – | #152 of 326 · 36.95 |