Ball State
MAC · 3–7 · 2–4 in conference · MRI Classic #123
Who to root for this week
Nothing this weekend moves the needle.
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 4). After 10 games, w is 71%, so the preseason prior is 29% of this rating. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -12.7 avg | × 71% | -9.1 |
| Opponents faced | -10.4 avg | × 71% | -7.4 |
| Preseason prior | -22.1 | × 29% | -6.3 |
| Power | -22.8 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at | Ohio State | L 3–56 | -52.6 | -0.4 | -1.2 |
| 2 | vs | Stony Brook FCS | W 41–17 | +13.9 | +10.1 | -1.5 |
| 3 | at | Liberty | L 15–51 | -28.8 | -7.2 | -2.4 |
| 4 | at | Kent State | L 13–26 | -5.0 | -8.0 | -2.5 |
| 5 | vs | Toledo | L 24–39 | -17.7 | +2.7 | -1.7 |
| 6 | at | Northwestern | L 14–45 | -37.9 | +6.9 | -1.5 |
| 7 | at | Bowling Green | W 32–31 | -6.7 | +7.7 | -1.1 |
| 8 | vs | Sacramento State | W 34–17 | +3.6 | +13.4 | -0.3 |
| 10 | at | UMass | L 30–31 | -7.1 | +6.1 | -1.2 |
| 11 | vs | Buffalo | L 7–28 | -5.2 | -15.8 | -3.1 |
| Preseason prior (29% of the rating) | -6.3 | |||||
| Power | -22.8 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | at | Ohio | -19.1 | 12% |
| 13 | vs | Central Michigan | -8.5 | 30% |
Coaches
Mean added leaves out 1978–1980, the first seasons rated, which have no preseason prior to measure against.
| Coach | Years | Record | Mean added |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dwight Wallace | 1978–1984 | 40-37 | -8.2 |
| Paul Schudel | 1985–1994 | 60-48-4 | -3.0 |
| Bill Lynch | 1995–2002 | 37-53 | -4.7 |
| Brady Hoke | 2003–2008 | 34-38 | -0.9 |
| Stan Parrish | 2009–2010 | 6-18 | -13.4 |
| Pete Lembo | 2011–2015 | 33-29 | -2.4 |
| Mike Neu | 2016–2024 | 40-63 | -2.8 |
| Mike Uremovich | 2025–2026 | 7-15 | -6.5 |
Season by season
Best finish: #15 in 1978. 48 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 150 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4–8 | #133 of 136 · -22.64 | – |
| 2024 | 3–9 | #124 of 134 · -16.99 | – |
| 2023 | 4–8 | #116 of 133 · -14.71 | – |
| 2022 | 5–7 | #111 of 131 · -12.31 | – |
| 2021 | 6–7 | #96 of 130 · -8.42 | – |
| 2020 | 7–1 | #61 of 128 · 1.98 | – |
| 2019 | 5–7 | #92 of 130 · -6.99 | #58 of 130 · 20.49 |
| 2018 | 4–8 | #117 of 130 · -18.02 | #107 of 130 · -28.03 |
| 2017 | 2–10 | #127 of 130 · -26.77 | #127 of 130 · -65.17 |
| 2016 | 4–8 | #108 of 128 · -13.61 | #92 of 128 · -4.10 |
| 2015 | 3–9 | #108 of 128 · -16.80 | #113 of 128 · -33.36 |
| 2014 | 5–7 | #90 of 128 · -8.93 | #86 of 128 · 2.71 |
| 2013 | 10–3 | #62 of 125 · 1.38 | #38 of 126 · 49.01 |
| 2012 | 9–4 | #75 of 124 · -4.43 | #53 of 124 · 33.68 |
| 2011 | 6–6 | #101 of 120 · -13.17 | #98 of 120 · -14.13 |
| 2010 | 4–8 | #109 of 120 · -19.12 | #105 of 120 · -30.64 |
| 2009 | 2–10 | #105 of 120 · -14.51 | #107 of 120 · -23.97 |
| 2008 | 12–2 | #43 of 120 · 4.70 | #25 of 120 · 51.65 |
| 2007 | 7–6 | #72 of 119 · -3.51 | #58 of 120 · 30.13 |
| 2006 | 5–7 | #88 of 119 · -8.22 | #83 of 119 · 3.82 |
| 2005 | 4–7 | #102 of 119 · -15.64 | #99 of 119 · -15.28 |
| 2004 | 2–9 | #108 of 117 · -18.63 | #110 of 117 · -29.72 |
| 2003 | 4–8 | #102 of 117 · -14.70 | #93 of 117 · -9.77 |
| 2002 | 6–6 | #99 of 117 · -13.72 | – |
| 2001 | 5–6 | #99 of 117 · -14.58 | – |
| 2000 | 5–6 | #107 of 116 · -19.75 | – |
| 1999 | 0–11 | #113 of 114 · -25.46 | – |
| 1998 | 1–10 | #107 of 112 · -21.39 | – |
| 1997 | 5–6 | #84 of 112 · -10.07 | – |
| 1996 | 8–4 | #64 of 111 · -3.28 | – |
| 1995 | 7–4 | #83 of 108 · -9.79 | – |
| 1994 | 5–6 | #87 of 107 · -12.42 | – |
| 1993 | 8–4 | #83 of 106 · -9.06 | – |
| 1992 | 5–6 | #91 of 107 · -11.98 | – |
| 1991 | 6–5 | #84 of 107 · -10.92 | – |
| 1990 | 7–4 | #80 of 107 · -9.91 | – |
| 1989 | 7–5 | #75 of 106 · -9.03 | – |
| 1988 | 8–3 | #75 of 104 · -7.72 | – |
| 1987 | 4–7 | #94 of 104 · -15.02 | – |
| 1986 | 6–5 | #91 of 105 · -14.67 | – |
| 1985 | 4–7 | #99 of 106 · -17.99 | – |
| 1984 | 3–8 | #103 of 106 · -19.95 | – |
| 1983 | 6–5 | #94 of 105 · -16.29 | – |
| 1982 | 5–6 | #94 of 105 · -15.59 | – |
| 1981 | 4–7 | #113 of 136 · -9.61 | – |
| 1980 | 6–5 | #60 of 138 · 0.57 | – |
| 1979 | 6–5 | #43 of 138 · 4.73 | – |
| 1978 | 10–1 | #15 of 138 · 13.27 | – |