USF
American · 6–4 · 2–4 in conference · MRI Classic #55
Who to root for this week
Nothing this weekend moves the needle.
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 4). After 10 games, w is 71%, so the preseason prior is 29% of this rating. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +9.0 avg | × 71% | +6.4 |
| Opponents faced | -11.5 avg | × 71% | -8.3 |
| Preseason prior | +11.4 | × 29% | +3.3 |
| Power | +1.4 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs | FIU | W 19–9 | +16.4 | -6.4 | -0.1 |
| 2 | at | Army | W 28–24 | -1.9 | +5.9 | +0.6 |
| 3 | vs | Delaware State FCS | W 59–17 | +38.1 | +3.9 | -0.2 |
| 4 | at | Bowling Green | W 14–6 | +17.5 | -9.5 | -0.4 |
| 5 | vs | Temple | L 13–17 | +15.6 | -19.6 | -1.4 |
| 6 | at | UTSA | L 24–31 | -2.9 | -4.1 | -0.4 |
| 7 | vs | Kent State | W 29–2 | +25.2 | +1.8 | +0.6 |
| 9 | vs | UAB | W 30–10 | +15.0 | +5.0 | +0.8 |
| 10 | at | East Carolina | L 17–20 | +4.0 | -7.0 | -0.5 |
| 11 | vs | Memphis | L 41–52 | +0.5 | -11.5 | -0.9 |
| Preseason prior (29% of the rating) | +3.3 | |||||
| Power | +1.4 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | at | Florida Atlantic | +4.4 | 60% |
| 13 | vs | Tulane | +12.7 | 78% |
Coaches
| Coach | Years | Record | Mean added |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Leavitt | 2000–2009 | 75-44 | +2.2 |
| Skip Holtz | 2010–2012 | 16-21 | -2.0 |
| Willie Taggart | 2013–2016 | 24-25 | +0.4 |
| Charlie Strong | 2017–2019 | 21-16 | -4.7 |
| Jeff Scott | 2020–2022 | 4-26 | -5.5 |
| Alex Golesh | 2023–2025 | 23-15 | +5.9 |
| Brian Hartline | 2026 | 6-4 | +1.6 |
Season by season
Best finish: #14 in 2007. 26 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 150 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9–4 | #31 of 136 · 9.99 | – |
| 2024 | 7–6 | #89 of 134 · -4.71 | – |
| 2023 | 7–6 | #98 of 133 · -7.91 | – |
| 2022 | 1–11 | #113 of 131 · -13.03 | – |
| 2021 | 2–10 | #108 of 130 · -11.85 | – |
| 2020 | 1–8 | #110 of 128 · -13.63 | – |
| 2019 | 4–8 | #98 of 130 · -8.72 | #95 of 130 · -2.45 |
| 2018 | 7–6 | #93 of 130 · -6.48 | #90 of 130 · 4.70 |
| 2017 | 10–2 | #35 of 130 · 8.17 | #16 of 130 · 69.47 |
| 2016 | 11–2 | #37 of 128 · 7.74 | #28 of 128 · 54.20 |
| 2015 | 8–5 | #62 of 128 · 2.82 | #43 of 128 · 45.80 |
| 2014 | 4–8 | #114 of 128 · -15.27 | #105 of 128 · -17.13 |
| 2013 | 2–10 | #107 of 125 · -15.72 | #111 of 126 · -36.48 |
| 2012 | 3–9 | #73 of 124 · -4.23 | #100 of 124 · -16.83 |
| 2011 | 5–7 | #43 of 120 · 4.52 | #51 of 120 · 30.67 |
| 2010 | 8–5 | #51 of 120 · 3.69 | #56 of 120 · 25.98 |
| 2009 | 8–5 | #47 of 120 · 5.15 | #50 of 120 · 29.55 |
| 2008 | 8–5 | #34 of 120 · 7.62 | #39 of 120 · 41.39 |
| 2007 | 9–4 | #16 of 119 · 13.36 | #14 of 120 · 73.12 |
| 2006 | 9–4 | #45 of 119 · 5.30 | #34 of 119 · 49.14 |
| 2005 | 6–6 | #47 of 119 · 3.78 | #38 of 119 · 44.45 |
| 2004 | 4–7 | #87 of 117 · -9.16 | #88 of 117 · -1.60 |
| 2003 | 7–4 | #65 of 117 · -1.59 | #65 of 117 · 26.48 |
| 2002 | 9–2 | #46 of 117 · 4.89 | – |
| 2001 | 8–3 | #80 of 117 · -4.95 | – |
| 2000 | 7–4 | #106 of 116 · -18.35 | – |