Army
American · 5–4 · 4–2 in conference · MRI Classic #59
Who to root for this week
Nothing this weekend moves the needle.
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 4). After 9 games, w is 69%, so the preseason prior is 31% of this rating. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +5.6 avg | × 69% | +3.9 |
| Opponents faced | -6.9 avg | × 69% | -4.8 |
| Preseason prior | +3.9 | × 31% | +1.2 |
| Power | +0.3 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs | Bryant FCS | W 59–3 | +37.0 | +19.0 | +0.7 |
| 2 | vs | USF | L 24–28 | +1.9 | -5.9 | -0.5 |
| 4 | at | Temple | W 21–17 | +8.4 | -4.4 | -0.2 |
| 5 | at | Louisiana Tech | L 29–31 | -3.0 | +1.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | vs | Tulane | W 20–17 | +11.5 | -8.5 | -0.6 |
| 7 | vs | Florida Atlantic | W 56–24 | +9.3 | +22.7 | +2.1 |
| 8 | at | Tulsa | W 38–35 | -0.6 | +3.6 | +0.4 |
| 9 | at | Memphis | L 22–49 | -6.7 | -20.3 | -1.9 |
| 10 | vs | Air Force | L 21–24 | +7.3 | -10.3 | -0.9 |
| Preseason prior (31% of the rating) | +1.2 | |||||
| Power | +0.3 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | vs | East Carolina | +8.9 | 70% |
| 13 | at | Rice | +13.2 | 79% |
| 15 | N | Navy | +4.3 | 60% |
Coaches
Mean added leaves out 1978–1980, the first seasons rated, which have no preseason prior to measure against.
| Coach | Years | Record | Mean added |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homer Smith | 1978 | 4-6-1 | – |
| Lou Saban | 1979 | 2-8-1 | – |
| Ed Cavanaugh | 1980–1982 | 10-21-2 | -6.1 |
| Jim Young | 1983–1990 | 51-39-1 | -1.5 |
| Bob Sutton | 1991–1999 | 44-55-1 | -2.7 |
| Todd Berry | 2000–2003 | 5-35 | -9.7 |
| Bobby Ross | 2004–2006 | 9-25 | -1.9 |
| Stan Brock | 2007–2008 | 6-18 | -6.8 |
| Rich Ellerson | 2009–2013 | 20-41 | -4.0 |
| Jeff Monken | 2014–2026 | 94-67 | +0.4 |
Season by season
Best finish: #19 in 2018. 48 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 150 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7–6 | #70 of 136 · -1.11 | – |
| 2024 | 12–2 | #41 of 134 · 7.30 | – |
| 2023 | 6–6 | #89 of 133 · -5.20 | – |
| 2022 | 6–6 | #71 of 131 · -1.49 | – |
| 2021 | 9–4 | #51 of 130 · 5.05 | – |
| 2020 | 9–3 | #63 of 128 · 1.66 | – |
| 2019 | 5–8 | #74 of 130 · -2.75 | #71 of 130 · 12.34 |
| 2018 | 11–2 | #41 of 130 · 6.60 | #19 of 130 · 65.08 |
| 2017 | 10–3 | #64 of 130 · 1.51 | #38 of 130 · 46.92 |
| 2016 | 8–5 | #80 of 128 · -5.08 | #53 of 128 · 29.42 |
| 2015 | 2–10 | #107 of 128 · -16.71 | #105 of 128 · -18.82 |
| 2014 | 4–8 | #117 of 128 · -17.50 | #108 of 128 · -20.48 |
| 2013 | 3–9 | #111 of 125 · -16.92 | #107 of 126 · -24.16 |
| 2012 | 2–10 | #113 of 124 · -17.51 | #110 of 124 · -29.96 |
| 2011 | 3–9 | #91 of 120 · -9.36 | #95 of 120 · -10.87 |
| 2010 | 7–6 | #85 of 120 · -7.51 | #50 of 120 · 29.49 |
| 2009 | 5–7 | #110 of 120 · -16.98 | #99 of 120 · -6.88 |
| 2008 | 3–9 | #113 of 120 · -18.41 | #108 of 120 · -27.02 |
| 2007 | 3–9 | #111 of 119 · -17.05 | #114 of 120 · -38.63 |
| 2006 | 3–9 | #106 of 119 · -14.42 | #109 of 119 · -32.90 |
| 2005 | 4–7 | #97 of 119 · -13.07 | #90 of 119 · 3.02 |
| 2004 | 2–9 | #106 of 117 · -18.46 | #99 of 117 · -15.94 |
| 2003 | 0–13 | #117 of 117 · -27.15 | #117 of 117 · -75.76 |
| 2002 | 1–11 | #116 of 117 · -25.98 | – |
| 2001 | 3–8 | #102 of 117 · -16.43 | – |
| 2000 | 1–10 | #97 of 116 · -15.26 | – |
| 1999 | 3–8 | #92 of 114 · -10.26 | – |
| 1998 | 3–8 | #83 of 112 · -8.33 | – |
| 1997 | 4–7 | #86 of 112 · -11.85 | – |
| 1996 | 10–2 | #39 of 111 · 6.09 | – |
| 1995 | 5–6 | #59 of 108 · -0.85 | – |
| 1994 | 4–7 | #91 of 107 · -15.07 | – |
| 1993 | 6–5 | #90 of 106 · -13.21 | – |
| 1992 | 5–6 | #96 of 107 · -14.05 | – |
| 1991 | 4–7 | #92 of 107 · -14.60 | – |
| 1990 | 6–5 | #83 of 107 · -11.29 | – |
| 1989 | 6–5 | #65 of 106 · -3.72 | – |
| 1988 | 9–3 | #60 of 104 · -3.42 | – |
| 1987 | 5–6 | #76 of 104 · -9.03 | – |
| 1986 | 6–5 | #66 of 105 · -5.97 | – |
| 1985 | 9–3 | #41 of 106 · 3.47 | – |
| 1984 | 8–4 | #69 of 106 · -2.94 | – |
| 1983 | 2–9 | #101 of 105 · -20.03 | – |
| 1982 | 4–7 | #96 of 105 · -15.69 | – |
| 1981 | 3–8 | #116 of 136 · -9.94 | – |
| 1980 | 3–8 | #110 of 138 · -9.95 | – |
| 1979 | 2–9 | #123 of 138 · -15.85 | – |
| 1978 | 4–7 | #112 of 138 · -9.93 | – |