Memphis
American · 8–2 · 5–1 in conference · MRI Classic #19
Who to root for this week
The games this week that move its playoff odds most, and the side to cheer. Other teams’ games only; its own game is in the schedule below. How these are worked out.
-
Oregon Stateat
Boise State
Playoff odds6.1% if they win · 2.0% if not +4.1 pts -
UNLVat
New Mexico
Playoff odds3.4% if they win · 2.9% if not +0.6 pts
Hidden HeismanJaylin Carter · Week 1How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 4). After 10 games, w is 71%, so the preseason prior is 29% of this rating. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +15.1 avg | × 71% | +10.8 |
| Opponents faced | -8.9 avg | × 71% | -6.3 |
| Preseason prior | -1.7 | × 29% | -0.5 |
| Power | +4.0 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at | UNLV | W 27–21 | +7.1 | -1.1 | +0.4 |
| 1 | vs | Arkansas State | W 42–24 | +18.0 | +0.0 | +0.6 |
| 2 | at | Boise State | L 20–38 | -10.5 | -7.5 | -0.6 |
| 3 | vs | UT Martin FCS | W 45–21 | +40.7 | -16.7 | -0.8 |
| 5 | at | Charlotte | W 59–8 | +24.1 | +26.9 | +1.9 |
| 6 | vs | UAB | W 38–13 | +17.6 | +7.4 | +1.2 |
| 7 | at | Tulane | L 17–31 | +9.2 | -23.2 | -1.7 |
| 8 | vs | East Carolina | W 41–34 | +12.6 | -5.6 | +0.1 |
| 9 | vs | Army | W 49–22 | +6.7 | +20.3 | +2.1 |
| 11 | at | USF | W 52–41 | -0.5 | +11.5 | +1.3 |
| Preseason prior (29% of the rating) | -0.5 | |||||
| Power | +4.0 | |||||
Remaining schedule
Hidden Heisman
The week’s biggest game from outside the power conferences, from a player the Heisman odds were not talking about. How it is picked.
| Season | Wk | Player | Opponent | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | Jaylin Carter | vs Arkansas State | 183 rush, 4 TD |
Coaches
Mean added leaves out 1978–1980, the first seasons rated, which have no preseason prior to measure against.
| Coach | Years | Record | Mean added |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Williamson | 1978–1980 | 11-22 | – |
| Rex Dockery | 1981–1983 | 8-24-1 | +1.3 |
| Rey Dempsey | 1984–1985 | 7-12-3 | -1.6 |
| Charlie Bailey | 1986–1988 | 12-20-1 | -2.4 |
| Chuck Stobart | 1989–1994 | 29-36-1 | -0.3 |
| Rip Scherer | 1995–2000 | 22-44 | -2.0 |
| Tommy West | 2001–2009 | 49-61 | -3.1 |
| Larry Porter | 2010–2011 | 3-21 | -12.0 |
| Justin Fuente | 2012–2015 | 26-23 | +4.9 |
| Mike Norvell | 2016–2019 | 38-16 | +3.0 |
| Ryan Silverfield | 2020–2025 | 50-24 | +1.1 |
| Charles Huff | 2026 | 8-2 | +0.1 |
Season by season
Best finish: #19 in 2003. 48 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 150 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8–5 | #60 of 136 · 2.89 | – |
| 2024 | 11–2 | #45 of 134 · 5.48 | – |
| 2023 | 10–3 | #45 of 133 · 5.50 | – |
| 2022 | 7–6 | #53 of 131 · 5.07 | – |
| 2021 | 6–6 | #81 of 130 · -2.14 | – |
| 2020 | 8–3 | #53 of 128 · 3.26 | – |
| 2019 | 12–2 | #20 of 130 · 13.15 | #20 of 130 · 69.59 |
| 2018 | 8–6 | #51 of 130 · 5.39 | #49 of 130 · 34.57 |
| 2017 | 10–3 | #33 of 130 · 8.96 | #26 of 130 · 60.25 |
| 2016 | 8–5 | #48 of 128 · 5.85 | #54 of 128 · 29.30 |
| 2015 | 9–4 | #40 of 128 · 8.62 | #41 of 128 · 46.98 |
| 2014 | 10–3 | #42 of 128 · 6.46 | #21 of 128 · 61.83 |
| 2013 | 3–9 | #100 of 125 · -11.97 | #104 of 126 · -20.29 |
| 2012 | 4–8 | #114 of 124 · -18.04 | #104 of 124 · -20.59 |
| 2011 | 2–10 | #117 of 120 · -26.62 | #115 of 120 · -59.93 |
| 2010 | 1–11 | #116 of 120 · -25.74 | #120 of 120 · -79.27 |
| 2009 | 2–10 | #106 of 120 · -15.22 | #111 of 120 · -40.19 |
| 2008 | 6–7 | #90 of 120 · -9.41 | #69 of 120 · 15.67 |
| 2007 | 7–6 | #98 of 119 · -13.33 | #77 of 120 · 12.14 |
| 2006 | 2–10 | #98 of 119 · -11.02 | #102 of 119 · -18.03 |
| 2005 | 7–5 | #69 of 119 · -1.45 | #63 of 119 · 26.48 |
| 2004 | 8–4 | #58 of 117 · 1.10 | #43 of 117 · 38.26 |
| 2003 | 9–4 | #57 of 117 · 1.84 | #19 of 117 · 69.79 |
| 2002 | 3–9 | #80 of 117 · -7.32 | – |
| 2001 | 5–6 | #71 of 117 · -2.44 | – |
| 2000 | 4–7 | #75 of 116 · -4.05 | – |
| 1999 | 5–6 | #55 of 114 · 1.29 | – |
| 1998 | 2–9 | #87 of 112 · -10.52 | – |
| 1997 | 4–7 | #77 of 112 · -6.20 | – |
| 1996 | 4–7 | #71 of 111 · -6.08 | – |
| 1995 | 3–8 | #75 of 108 · -7.33 | – |
| 1994 | 6–5 | #63 of 107 · -1.17 | – |
| 1993 | 6–5 | #40 of 106 · 4.03 | – |
| 1992 | 6–5 | #31 of 107 · 5.89 | – |
| 1991 | 5–6 | #57 of 107 · -0.71 | – |
| 1990 | 4–7 | #72 of 107 · -5.25 | – |
| 1989 | 2–9 | #85 of 106 · -11.67 | – |
| 1988 | 6–5 | #59 of 104 · -2.35 | – |
| 1987 | 5–6 | #68 of 104 · -5.65 | – |
| 1986 | 1–10 | #97 of 105 · -17.31 | – |
| 1985 | 2–9 | #63 of 106 · -2.36 | – |
| 1984 | 5–6 | #46 of 106 · 2.20 | – |
| 1983 | 6–5 | #43 of 105 · 2.48 | – |
| 1982 | 1–10 | #92 of 105 · -14.74 | – |
| 1981 | 1–10 | #117 of 136 · -10.03 | – |
| 1980 | 2–9 | #123 of 138 · -13.02 | – |
| 1979 | 5–6 | #102 of 138 · -6.84 | – |
| 1978 | 4–7 | #104 of 138 · -7.78 | – |