UMass
MAC · 5–5 · 2–4 in conference · MRI Classic #104
Who to root for this week
Nothing this weekend moves the needle.
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 4). After 10 games, w is 71%, so the preseason prior is 29% of this rating. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +2.2 avg | × 71% | +1.5 |
| Opponents faced | -16.6 avg | × 71% | -11.8 |
| Preseason prior | -29.5 | × 29% | -8.4 |
| Power | -18.7 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at | Rutgers | W 37–21 | -16.0 | +32.0 | +1.2 |
| 2 | vs | Sacred Heart FCS | W 37–10 | +18.0 | +9.0 | -0.2 |
| 3 | vs | Stonehill FCS | W 36–14 | +18.0 | +4.0 | -0.6 |
| 4 | at | Sacramento State | W 35–6 | +1.7 | +27.3 | +0.9 |
| 5 | vs | Eastern Michigan | L 14–38 | +1.2 | -25.2 | -3.5 |
| 6 | vs | Miami (OH) | L 19–20 | -6.2 | +5.2 | -1.0 |
| 7 | at | Buffalo | L 18–25 | -7.1 | +0.1 | -1.5 |
| 8 | at | UConn | L 16–35 | -15.8 | -3.2 | -1.9 |
| 10 | vs | Ball State | W 31–30 | +7.1 | -6.1 | -1.7 |
| 11 | at | Toledo | L 0–24 | -19.6 | -4.4 | -2.0 |
| Preseason prior (29% of the rating) | -8.4 | |||||
| Power | -18.7 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | vs | Akron | +7.1 | 67% |
| 13 | at | Bowling Green | -2.6 | 44% |
Coaches
| Coach | Years | Record | Mean added |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charley Molnar | 2012–2013 | 2-22 | -11.9 |
| Mark Whipple | 2014–2018 | 16-44 | -3.4 |
| Walt Bell | 2019–2021 | 2-23 | -15.9 |
| Don Brown | 2022–2024 | 6-28 | -4.6 |
| Joe Harasymiak | 2025–2026 | 5-17 | -5.2 |
Season by season
Best finish: #91 in 2017. 14 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 150 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0–12 | #136 of 136 · -33.25 | – |
| 2024 | 2–10 | #127 of 134 · -21.15 | – |
| 2023 | 3–9 | #129 of 133 · -20.34 | – |
| 2022 | 1–11 | #131 of 131 · -29.24 | – |
| 2021 | 1–11 | #130 of 130 · -34.83 | – |
| 2020 | 0–4 | #128 of 128 · -38.69 | – |
| 2019 | 1–11 | #130 of 130 · -39.67 | #130 of 130 · -145.50 |
| 2018 | 4–8 | #114 of 130 · -16.84 | #110 of 130 · -28.80 |
| 2017 | 4–8 | #103 of 130 · -12.71 | #91 of 130 · 2.34 |
| 2016 | 2–10 | #118 of 128 · -18.02 | #121 of 128 · -36.83 |
| 2015 | 3–9 | #111 of 128 · -17.64 | #106 of 128 · -19.15 |
| 2014 | 3–9 | #118 of 128 · -18.82 | #110 of 128 · -22.38 |
| 2013 | 1–11 | #120 of 125 · -29.75 | #119 of 126 · -62.03 |
| 2012 | 1–11 | #124 of 124 · -29.15 | #124 of 124 · -84.68 |