Sacramento State

MAC · 2–9 · 1–7 in conference · MRI Classic #138

Power-23.4#135 of 138

Résumé-6.83#236 · wins above average

Playoff chance<0.1%out of the picture

Trendrating by week

Who to root for this week

Nothing this weekend moves the needle.

Best winKent State (31–10)
Worst lossBall State (17–34)
Schedule faced-14.3 avg opponent
Schedule ahead-11.7 avg opponent
Roster talent#109 of 127 · worth -6.5, rated -23.4: short of it

How this rating is built

Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 4). After 11 games, w is 73%, so the preseason prior is 27% of this rating. Every game played shrinks that share.

Part	Value	Weight	Adds
Margin counted	-15.9 avg	× 73%	-11.6
Opponents faced	-14.3 avg	× 73%	-10.5
Preseason prior	-4.7	× 27%	-1.3
Power			-23.4

This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.

Results

Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.

Wk		Opponent	Result	Expected	Perf	Adds
1	at	Eastern Michigan	L 17–28	-9.6	-1.4	-1.9
1	vs	Mississippi Valley State FCS	W 52–0	+13.3	+38.7	+0.5
2	at	Fresno State	L 3–49	-27.1	-18.9	-2.7
3	vs	North Dakota State	L 10–31	-17.3	-3.7	-2.1
4	vs	UMass	L 6–35	-1.7	-27.3	-3.7
6	at	Bowling Green	L 10–38	-7.3	-20.7	-3.3
7	vs	Ohio	L 7–48	-13.6	-27.4	-3.4
8	at	Ball State	L 17–34	-3.6	-13.4	-2.8
9	vs	Kent State	W 31–10	+0.4	+20.6	+0.2
10	vs	Toledo	L 17–20	-18.3	+15.3	-0.6
11	at	Central Michigan	L 7–28	-15.1	-5.9	-2.3
Preseason prior (27% of the rating)						-1.3
Power						-23.4

Remaining schedule

Wk		Opponent	Projected	Win prob
13	at	Hawaii	-14.8	18%

Coaches

Coach	Years	Record	Mean added
Alonzo Carter	2026	2-9	-9.3