Hawaii
Mountain West · 3–6 · 2–4 in conference · MRI Classic #99
Who to root for this week
Nothing this weekend moves the needle.
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 4). After 9 games, w is 69%, so the preseason prior is 31% of this rating. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -4.3 avg | × 69% | -3.0 |
| Opponents faced | -11.6 avg | × 69% | -8.1 |
| Preseason prior | -2.0 | × 31% | -0.6 |
| Power | -11.7 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at | Stanford | L 27–37 | -5.4 | -4.6 | -1.5 |
| 1 | vs | UNLV | L 6–21 | -2.5 | -12.5 | -2.2 |
| 2 | vs | New Mexico State | W 29–19 | +9.9 | +0.1 | -0.6 |
| 4 | at | Wyoming | L 10–27 | -1.3 | -15.7 | -2.5 |
| 5 | vs | San Jose State | L 16–20 | +4.0 | -8.0 | -1.6 |
| 6 | at | Arizona State | L 12–30 | -15.1 | -2.9 | -1.5 |
| 7 | vs | New Mexico | L 10–21 | -14.3 | +3.3 | -0.9 |
| 8 | at | Northern Illinois | W 56–21 | +10.4 | +24.6 | +1.2 |
| 10 | at | UTEP | W 17–14 | +11.0 | -8.0 | -1.5 |
| Preseason prior (31% of the rating) | -0.6 | |||||
| Power | -11.7 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | vs | North Dakota State | -5.5 | 37% |
| 12 | at | Nevada | -1.5 | 46% |
| 13 | vs | Sacramento State | +14.8 | 82% |
Coaches
Mean added leaves out 1978–1980, the first seasons rated, which have no preseason prior to measure against.
| Coach | Years | Record | Mean added |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dick Tomey | 1978–1986 | 58-40-3 | +0.0 |
| Bob Wagner | 1987–1995 | 58-49-3 | -1.1 |
| Fred Vonappen | 1996–1998 | 5-31 | -9.6 |
| June Jones | 1999–2007 | 76-41 | +1.9 |
| Greg McMackin | 2008–2011 | 29-25 | -3.8 |
| Norm Chow | 2012–2015 | 10-36 | -7.6 |
| Nick Rolovich | 2016–2019 | 28-27 | -1.3 |
| Todd Graham | 2020–2021 | 11-11 | -4.1 |
| Timmy Chang | 2022–2026 | 25-35 | -3.7 |
Season by season
Best finish: #15 in 2006. 48 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 150 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9–4 | #85 of 136 · -4.20 | – |
| 2024 | 5–7 | #113 of 134 · -13.08 | – |
| 2023 | 5–8 | #124 of 133 · -17.17 | – |
| 2022 | 3–10 | #126 of 131 · -18.04 | – |
| 2021 | 6–7 | #95 of 130 · -7.89 | – |
| 2020 | 5–4 | #83 of 128 · -3.64 | – |
| 2019 | 10–5 | #84 of 130 · -4.56 | #59 of 130 · 20.37 |
| 2018 | 8–6 | #103 of 130 · -12.95 | #95 of 130 · -2.30 |
| 2017 | 3–9 | #119 of 130 · -18.74 | #119 of 130 · -38.27 |
| 2016 | 7–7 | #109 of 128 · -14.00 | #94 of 128 · -7.52 |
| 2015 | 3–10 | #116 of 128 · -20.19 | #124 of 128 · -60.58 |
| 2014 | 4–9 | #108 of 128 · -13.31 | #102 of 128 · -12.54 |
| 2013 | 1–11 | #105 of 125 · -15.51 | #110 of 126 · -32.60 |
| 2012 | 3–9 | #110 of 124 · -16.49 | #119 of 124 · -51.17 |
| 2011 | 6–7 | #80 of 120 · -5.11 | #79 of 120 · 7.20 |
| 2010 | 10–4 | #48 of 120 · 4.14 | #20 of 120 · 64.15 |
| 2009 | 6–7 | #99 of 120 · -11.58 | #89 of 120 · -2.18 |
| 2008 | 7–7 | #74 of 120 · -3.92 | #83 of 120 · 7.06 |
| 2007 | 12–1 | #32 of 119 · 8.91 | #21 of 120 · 63.94 |
| 2006 | 11–3 | #26 of 119 · 10.60 | #15 of 119 · 78.04 |
| 2005 | 5–7 | #81 of 119 · -7.10 | #81 of 119 · 12.53 |
| 2004 | 8–5 | #79 of 117 · -6.01 | #69 of 117 · 21.39 |
| 2003 | 9–5 | #64 of 117 · -1.02 | #51 of 117 · 40.65 |
| 2002 | 10–4 | #63 of 117 · 1.32 | – |
| 2001 | 9–3 | #63 of 117 · 0.51 | – |
| 2000 | 3–9 | #96 of 116 · -14.78 | – |
| 1999 | 9–4 | #84 of 114 · -8.01 | – |
| 1998 | 0–12 | #109 of 112 · -25.39 | – |
| 1997 | 3–9 | #97 of 112 · -15.94 | – |
| 1996 | 2–10 | #105 of 111 · -22.61 | – |
| 1995 | 4–8 | #89 of 108 · -12.14 | – |
| 1994 | 3–9 | #69 of 107 · -3.47 | – |
| 1993 | 6–6 | #61 of 106 · -3.21 | – |
| 1992 | 11–2 | #39 of 107 · 4.32 | – |
| 1991 | 4–8 | #61 of 107 · -2.67 | – |
| 1990 | 7–5 | #40 of 107 · 4.17 | – |
| 1989 | 9–4 | #35 of 106 · 7.13 | – |
| 1988 | 9–3 | #43 of 104 · 2.66 | – |
| 1987 | 5–7 | #64 of 104 · -4.31 | – |
| 1986 | 7–5 | #57 of 105 · -0.68 | – |
| 1985 | 4–8 | #60 of 106 · -1.09 | – |
| 1984 | 7–4 | #59 of 106 · -0.60 | – |
| 1983 | 5–6 | #64 of 105 · -3.59 | – |
| 1982 | 6–5 | #61 of 105 · -2.94 | – |
| 1981 | 9–2 | #34 of 136 · 7.98 | – |
| 1980 | 8–3 | #78 of 138 · -1.64 | – |
| 1979 | 6–5 | #56 of 138 · 2.20 | – |
| 1978 | 6–5 | #84 of 138 · -3.09 | – |