MRI Champion · 4 football titles 1978, 1986, 1987, 2003

Oklahoma

SEC · 5–4 · 3–3 in conference · MRI Classic #47

Power+15.6#17 of 138

Résumé+2.73#24 · wins above average

Playoff chance7.0%#23 most likely · -0.3 pts this week

Trendrating by week

Who to root for this week

5 games · top: Michigan over Oregon, +1.3 pts playoff odds

The games this week that move its playoff odds most, and the side to cheer. Other teams’ games only; its own game is in the schedule below. How these are worked out.

MichiganatOregon
Root forMichigan19% to winupset needed

Playoff odds8.1% if they win · 6.8% if not +1.3 pts
TennesseeatTexas A&M
Root forTexas A&M45% to winupset needed

Playoff odds7.8% if they win · 6.5% if not +1.3 pts
NorthwesternatOhio State
Root forNorthwestern14% to winupset needed

Playoff odds7.8% if they win · 6.9% if not +0.9 pts
TexasatLSU
Root forTexas54% to win

Playoff odds7.4% if they win · 6.6% if not +0.8 pts
Boston CollegeatNotre Dame
Root forBoston College0.9% to winupset needed

Playoff odds7.7% if they win · 7.0% if not +0.7 pts

Best winTexas (27–24)
Worst lossMichigan (10–17)
Schedule faced+11.3 avg opponent
Schedule ahead+17.5 avg opponent
Roster talent#16 of 127 · worth +8.9, rated +15.6: beating it
Returning production63% of last year's · #37 of 128
Home field+3.4 pts · 29th of 131

How this rating is built

Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 4). After 9 games, w is 69%, so the preseason prior is 31% of this rating. Every game played shrinks that share.

Part	Value	Weight	Adds
Margin counted	+2.0 avg	× 69%	+1.4
Opponents faced	+11.3 avg	× 69%	+7.8
Preseason prior	+20.6	× 31%	+6.4
Power			+15.6

This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.

Results

Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.

Wk		Opponent	Result	Expected	Perf	Adds
1	vs	UTEP	W 51–0	+44.3	+6.7	+1.4
2	at	Michigan	L 10–17	+2.0	-9.0	+0.3
3	vs	New Mexico	W 14–6	+12.9	-4.9	+1.0
4	at	Georgia	L 13–41	-20.2	-7.8	+0.2
6	N	Texas	W 27–24	-12.4	+15.4	+2.5
7	vs	Kentucky	L 13–21	+7.3	-15.3	-0.2
8	at	Mississippi State	W 23–15	+4.1	+3.9	+1.7
9	vs	South Carolina	L 25–42	+1.7	-18.7	-0.6
10	at	Florida	W 23–7	-1.6	+17.6	+2.9
Preseason prior (31% of the rating)						+6.4
Power						+15.6

Remaining schedule

Wk		Opponent	Projected	Win prob
11	vs	Ole Miss	-2.9	43%
12	vs	Texas A&M	+2.6	56%
13	at	Missouri	-2.4	44%

Coaches

Mean added leaves out 1978–1980, the first seasons rated, which have no preseason prior to measure against.

Coach	Years	Record	Mean added
Barry Switzer	1978–1988	106-24-2	+5.9
Gary Gibbs	1989–1994	44-23-2	+2.8
Howard Schnellenberger	1995	5-5-1	-4.0
John Blake	1996–1998	12-22	-1.9
Bob Stoops	1999–2016	190-48	+7.3
Lincoln Riley	2017–2021	55-10	+6.6
Bob Stoops	2021	1-0	+4.8
Brent Venables	2022–2026	37-24	+3.8

Season by season

Best finish: #1 in 2003. 48 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.

Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 75 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.

Season	Rec	MRI 2.0	MRI Classic
2025	10–3	#16 of 136 · 17.51	–
2024	6–7	#29 of 134 · 10.86	–
2023	10–3	#11 of 133 · 19.91	–
2022	6–7	#24 of 131 · 11.77	–
2021	11–2	#8 of 130 · 17.79	–
2020	9–2	#4 of 128 · 24.77	–
2019	12–2	#9 of 130 · 21.34	#16 of 130 · 72.22
2018	12–2	#5 of 130 · 23.08	#7 of 130 · 82.95
2017	12–2	#7 of 130 · 25.04	#8 of 130 · 96.53
2016	11–2	#6 of 128 · 21.38	#8 of 128 · 79.08
2015	11–2	#3 of 128 · 24.29	#3 of 128 · 99.15
2014	8–5	#17 of 128 · 16.94	#29 of 128 · 53.30
2013	11–2	#12 of 125 · 20.26	#13 of 126 · 77.35
2012	10–3	#9 of 124 · 19.89	#18 of 124 · 64.46
2011	10–3	#7 of 120 · 23.56	#5 of 120 · 106.58
2010	12–2	#7 of 120 · 22.38	#6 of 120 · 102.17
2009	8–5	#4 of 120 · 23.04	#11 of 120 · 70.34
2008	12–2	#3 of 120 · 32.08	#3 of 120 · 126.07
2007	11–3	#4 of 119 · 21.89	#3 of 120 · 105.78
2006	11–3	#12 of 119 · 16.87	#17 of 119 · 76.16
2005	8–4	#14 of 119 · 15.36	#19 of 119 · 65.30
2004	12–1	#2 of 117 · 25.11	#4 of 117 · 120.90
2003	12–2	#2 of 117 · 29.00	#1 of 117 · 143.50
2002	12–2	#3 of 117 · 24.65	–
2001	11–2	#5 of 117 · 20.30	–
2000	13–0	#4 of 116 · 25.66	–
1999	7–5	#20 of 114 · 12.02	–
1998	5–6	#62 of 112 · -1.85	–
1997	4–8	#74 of 112 · -4.48	–
1996	3–8	#68 of 111 · -4.24	–
1995	5–6	#55 of 108 · 1.17	–
1994	6–6	#34 of 107 · 6.69	–
1993	9–3	#10 of 106 · 17.84	–
1992	5–6	#26 of 107 · 8.27	–
1991	9–3	#10 of 107 · 19.86	–
1990	8–3	#7 of 107 · 20.28	–
1989	7–4	#16 of 106 · 14.75	–
1988	9–3	#10 of 104 · 20.12	–
1987	11–1	#1 of 104 · 28.72	–
1986	11–1	#1 of 105 · 32.35	–
1985	11–1	#2 of 106 · 23.47	–
1984	9–3	#8 of 106 · 14.76	–
1983	8–4	#18 of 105 · 12.86	–
1982	8–4	#14 of 105 · 15.34	–
1981	7–5	#10 of 136 · 19.13	–
1980	10–2	#6 of 138 · 24.17	–
1979	11–1	#3 of 138 · 24.80	–
1978	11–1	#1 of 138 · 23.84	–