Arkansas State
Sun Belt · 4–5 · 2–3 in conference · MRI Classic #98
Who to root for this week
Nothing this weekend moves the needle.
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 4). After 9 games, w is 69%, so the preseason prior is 31% of this rating. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -0.2 avg | × 69% | -0.2 |
| Opponents faced | -11.1 avg | × 69% | -7.7 |
| Preseason prior | -10.2 | × 31% | -3.1 |
| Power | -11.0 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at | Memphis | L 24–42 | -18.0 | -0.0 | -1.2 |
| 2 | vs | West Georgia FCS | W 52–7 | +25.7 | +19.3 | +0.3 |
| 3 | at | TCU | L 7–31 | -20.3 | -3.7 | -1.5 |
| 4 | vs | Kennesaw State | W 17–14 | +5.8 | -2.8 | -1.0 |
| 5 | at | Louisiana | L 20–23 | -11.4 | +8.4 | -0.3 |
| 6 | vs | South Alabama | L 49–56 | +0.8 | -7.8 | -1.6 |
| 7 | at | Southern Miss | W 23–13 | +1.5 | +8.5 | +0.0 |
| 8 | vs | Georgia State | W 38–32 | +1.1 | +4.9 | -0.3 |
| 10 | vs | Louisiana-Monroe | L 17–19 | +15.9 | -17.9 | -2.3 |
| Preseason prior (31% of the rating) | -3.1 | |||||
| Power | -11.0 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | at | Coastal Carolina | -0.4 | 49% |
| 12 | at | Louisiana Tech | -14.3 | 19% |
| 13 | vs | Troy | +4.4 | 60% |
Coaches
Mean added leaves out 1978–1980, the first seasons rated, which have no preseason prior to measure against.
| Coach | Years | Record | Mean added |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Davidson | 1978 | 7-4 | – |
| Larry Lacewell | 1979–1981 | 12-21 | +8.3 |
| Al Kincaid | 1990–1991 | 4-17-1 | -12.0 |
| Ray Perkins | 1992 | 2-9 | -10.9 |
| John Bobo | 1993–1996 | 13-30-1 | -5.5 |
| Joe Hollis | 1997–2001 | 13-43 | -8.3 |
| Steve Roberts | 2002–2010 | 45-63 | -3.3 |
| Hugh Freeze | 2011 | 10-3 | +4.8 |
| Gus Malzahn | 2012 | 9-3 | +4.0 |
| Bryan Harsin | 2013 | 7-5 | -5.7 |
| Blake Anderson | 2014–2020 | 51-37 | -2.0 |
| Butch Jones | 2021–2026 | 30-42 | -4.4 |
Season by season
Best finish: #23 in 2012. 40 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 150 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7–6 | #102 of 136 · -10.61 | – |
| 2024 | 8–5 | #108 of 134 · -11.05 | – |
| 2023 | 6–7 | #106 of 133 · -9.43 | – |
| 2022 | 3–9 | #120 of 131 · -15.79 | – |
| 2021 | 2–10 | #120 of 130 · -17.82 | – |
| 2020 | 4–7 | #100 of 128 · -9.65 | – |
| 2019 | 8–5 | #90 of 130 · -6.24 | #70 of 130 · 12.87 |
| 2018 | 8–5 | #77 of 130 · -2.36 | #37 of 130 · 42.78 |
| 2017 | 7–5 | #72 of 130 · -1.27 | #47 of 130 · 38.08 |
| 2016 | 8–5 | #73 of 128 · -2.85 | #55 of 128 · 28.30 |
| 2015 | 9–4 | #74 of 128 · -0.73 | #52 of 128 · 38.11 |
| 2014 | 7–6 | #79 of 128 · -4.04 | #68 of 128 · 20.49 |
| 2013 | 8–5 | #74 of 125 · -3.20 | #66 of 126 · 22.61 |
| 2012 | 10–3 | #57 of 124 · 3.41 | #23 of 124 · 58.68 |
| 2011 | 10–3 | #68 of 120 · -1.15 | #28 of 120 · 53.57 |
| 2010 | 4–8 | #91 of 120 · -9.09 | #75 of 120 · 11.15 |
| 2009 | 4–8 | #91 of 120 · -10.05 | #85 of 120 · 1.12 |
| 2008 | 6–6 | #85 of 120 · -8.38 | #58 of 120 · 26.31 |
| 2007 | 5–7 | #97 of 119 · -13.22 | #82 of 120 · 9.93 |
| 2006 | 6–6 | #109 of 119 · -17.27 | #100 of 119 · -13.17 |
| 2005 | 6–6 | #105 of 119 · -16.83 | #93 of 119 · -4.55 |
| 2004 | 3–8 | #110 of 117 · -20.37 | #108 of 117 · -26.98 |
| 2003 | 5–7 | #111 of 117 · -22.03 | #103 of 117 · -29.50 |
| 2002 | 6–7 | #109 of 117 · -19.84 | – |
| 2001 | 2–9 | #116 of 117 · -27.78 | – |
| 2000 | 1–10 | #104 of 116 · -17.51 | – |
| 1999 | 4–7 | #103 of 114 · -17.50 | – |
| 1998 | 4–8 | #110 of 112 · -25.78 | – |
| 1997 | 2–9 | #111 of 112 · -29.30 | – |
| 1996 | 4–7 | #99 of 111 · -19.69 | – |
| 1995 | 6–5 | #101 of 108 · -21.13 | – |
| 1994 | 1–10 | #104 of 107 · -26.50 | – |
| 1993 | 2–9 | #104 of 106 · -26.97 | – |
| 1992 | 2–9 | #107 of 107 · -29.23 | – |
| 1991 | 1–10 | #106 of 107 · -26.63 | – |
| 1990 | 3–8 | #98 of 107 · -17.85 | – |
| 1981 | 6–5 | #92 of 136 · -5.35 | – |
| 1980 | 2–9 | #131 of 138 · -19.23 | – |
| 1979 | 4–7 | #94 of 138 · -5.03 | – |
| 1978 | 7–4 | #73 of 138 · -0.14 | – |