Louisiana Tech
Sun Belt · 7–2 · 5–0 in conference · MRI Classic #44
Who to root for this week
The games this week that move its playoff odds most, and the side to cheer. Other teams’ games only; its own game is in the schedule below. How these are worked out.
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Oregon Stateat
Boise State
Playoff odds3.0% if they win · 1.1% if not +1.9 pts
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 4). After 9 games, w is 69%, so the preseason prior is 31% of this rating. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +12.2 avg | × 69% | +8.5 |
| Opponents faced | -8.8 avg | × 69% | -6.1 |
| Preseason prior | -6.6 | × 31% | -2.1 |
| Power | +0.3 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs | Northwestern State FCS | W 80–6 | +37.0 | +37.0 | -0.1 |
| 2 | at | LSU | L 14–45 | -26.0 | -5.0 | -0.7 |
| 3 | at | Baylor | L 19–36 | -13.9 | -3.1 | -0.6 |
| 5 | vs | Army | W 31–29 | +3.0 | -1.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | vs | Louisiana | W 32–31 | +6.0 | -5.0 | -0.3 |
| 7 | at | Louisiana-Monroe | W 24–0 | +21.2 | +2.8 | +0.6 |
| 8 | vs | Old Dominion | W 26–0 | +19.2 | +6.8 | +0.9 |
| 9 | at | South Alabama | W 35–20 | +6.0 | +9.0 | +1.1 |
| 10 | at | Troy | W 41–17 | +9.6 | +14.4 | +1.5 |
| Preseason prior (31% of the rating) | -2.1 | |||||
| Power | +0.3 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | vs | Southern Miss | +18.9 | 87% |
| 12 | vs | Arkansas State | +14.3 | 81% |
| 13 | at | Georgia Southern | +1.1 | 53% |
Coaches
Mean added leaves out 1978–1980, the first seasons rated, which have no preseason prior to measure against.
| Coach | Years | Record | Mean added |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maxie Lambright | 1978 | 6-5 | – |
| Billy Brewer | 1980–1981 | 9-12-1 | -2.1 |
| Joe Peace | 1988–1995 | 40-44-4 | -2.4 |
| Gary Crowton | 1996–1998 | 21-13 | +1.6 |
| Jack Bicknell | 1999–2006 | 43-52 | -4.2 |
| Derek Dooley | 2007–2009 | 17-20 | +1.4 |
| Sonny Dykes | 2010–2012 | 22-15 | +2.3 |
| Skip Holtz | 2013–2021 | 64-50 | -3.2 |
| Sonny Cumbie | 2022–2026 | 26-33 | -1.9 |
Season by season
Best finish: #14 in 2014. 41 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 150 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8–5 | #94 of 136 · -7.00 | – |
| 2024 | 5–8 | #116 of 134 · -13.63 | – |
| 2023 | 3–9 | #121 of 133 · -16.70 | – |
| 2022 | 3–9 | #123 of 131 · -16.24 | – |
| 2021 | 3–9 | #110 of 130 · -12.02 | – |
| 2020 | 5–5 | #106 of 128 · -11.51 | – |
| 2019 | 10–3 | #76 of 130 · -2.94 | #36 of 130 · 39.36 |
| 2018 | 8–5 | #92 of 130 · -6.11 | #74 of 130 · 19.15 |
| 2017 | 7–6 | #75 of 130 · -1.76 | #52 of 130 · 32.68 |
| 2016 | 9–5 | #55 of 128 · 4.54 | #44 of 128 · 40.56 |
| 2015 | 9–4 | #59 of 128 · 3.08 | #48 of 128 · 42.05 |
| 2014 | 9–5 | #51 of 128 · 3.12 | #14 of 128 · 70.63 |
| 2013 | 4–8 | #106 of 125 · -15.57 | #108 of 126 · -25.16 |
| 2012 | 9–3 | #43 of 124 · 6.36 | #36 of 124 · 49.01 |
| 2011 | 8–5 | #55 of 120 · 2.23 | #43 of 120 · 36.71 |
| 2010 | 5–7 | #79 of 120 · -6.54 | #83 of 120 · 2.15 |
| 2009 | 4–8 | #71 of 120 · -3.41 | #71 of 120 · 16.05 |
| 2008 | 8–5 | #86 of 120 · -8.45 | #66 of 120 · 19.21 |
| 2007 | 5–7 | #104 of 119 · -14.66 | #103 of 120 · -16.11 |
| 2006 | 3–10 | #114 of 119 · -20.87 | #117 of 119 · -63.61 |
| 2005 | 7–4 | #74 of 119 · -3.85 | #49 of 119 · 35.61 |
| 2004 | 6–6 | #78 of 117 · -5.72 | #58 of 117 · 28.76 |
| 2003 | 5–7 | #87 of 117 · -9.68 | #90 of 117 · -5.41 |
| 2002 | 4–8 | #93 of 117 · -10.63 | – |
| 2001 | 7–5 | #72 of 117 · -2.72 | – |
| 2000 | 3–9 | #88 of 116 · -9.76 | – |
| 1999 | 8–3 | #49 of 114 · 2.90 | – |
| 1998 | 6–6 | #61 of 112 · -1.70 | – |
| 1997 | 9–2 | #75 of 112 · -4.61 | – |
| 1996 | 6–5 | #86 of 111 · -11.02 | – |
| 1995 | 5–6 | #93 of 108 · -16.38 | – |
| 1994 | 3–8 | #101 of 107 · -20.71 | – |
| 1993 | 2–9 | #96 of 106 · -18.31 | – |
| 1992 | 5–6 | #62 of 107 · -2.26 | – |
| 1991 | 8–3 | #59 of 107 · -2.11 | – |
| 1990 | 8–4 | #50 of 107 · 0.85 | – |
| 1989 | 5–5 | #70 of 106 · -6.42 | – |
| 1981 | 4–7 | #110 of 136 · -9.05 | – |
| 1980 | 5–6 | #108 of 138 · -9.61 | – |
| 1979 | 2–9 | #117 of 138 · -9.67 | – |
| 1978 | 6–5 | #52 of 138 · 3.50 | – |