San Jose State
Mountain West · 5–5 · 3–3 in conference · MRI Classic #94
Who to root for this week
Nothing this weekend moves the needle.
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 4). After 10 games, w is 71%, so the preseason prior is 29% of this rating. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -1.3 avg | × 71% | -0.9 |
| Opponents faced | -12.2 avg | × 71% | -8.7 |
| Preseason prior | -10.5 | × 29% | -3.0 |
| Power | -12.6 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at | USC | L 26–42 | -33.1 | +17.1 | +0.0 |
| 1 | at | Eastern Michigan | W 27–21 | +1.2 | +4.8 | -0.4 |
| 2 | vs | Cal Poly FCS | W 30–20 | +24.1 | -14.1 | -2.1 |
| 3 | vs | Fresno State | L 10–26 | -10.3 | -5.7 | -1.6 |
| 5 | at | Hawaii | W 20–16 | -4.0 | +8.0 | -0.2 |
| 6 | vs | Wyoming | L 13–16 | +3.7 | -6.7 | -1.5 |
| 7 | at | UTEP | W 24–11 | +10.0 | +3.0 | -0.4 |
| 8 | at | Nevada | L 13–28 | -2.5 | -12.5 | -2.1 |
| 9 | vs | New Mexico | L 16–21 | -15.3 | +10.3 | -0.3 |
| 10 | vs | Northern Illinois | W 30–19 | +15.4 | -4.4 | -1.0 |
| Preseason prior (29% of the rating) | -3.0 | |||||
| Power | -12.6 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | at | Air Force | -11.6 | 24% |
| 12 | vs | UNLV | -3.5 | 42% |
| 13 | vs | North Dakota State | -6.5 | 35% |
Coaches
Mean added leaves out 1978–1980, the first seasons rated, which have no preseason prior to measure against.
| Coach | Years | Record | Mean added |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lynn Stiles | 1978 | 7-5 | – |
| Jack Elway | 1979–1983 | 35-20-1 | -0.2 |
| Claude Gilbert | 1984–1989 | 38-30-1 | -0.7 |
| Terry Shea | 1990–1991 | 15-6-2 | +4.2 |
| Ron Turner | 1992 | 7-4 | -6.4 |
| John Ralston | 1993–1996 | 11-34 | -7.6 |
| Dave Baldwin | 1997–2000 | 18-27 | -0.8 |
| Fitz Hill | 2001–2004 | 14-33 | -7.2 |
| Dick Tomey | 2005–2009 | 25-35 | -4.5 |
| Mike MacIntyre | 2010–2012 | 16-21 | +3.1 |
| Ron Caragher | 2013–2016 | 19-30 | -6.2 |
| Brent Brennan | 2017–2023 | 34-48 | -2.4 |
| Ken Niumatalolo | 2024–2026 | 15-20 | -5.3 |
Season by season
Best finish: #20 in 2012. 48 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 150 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3–9 | #113 of 136 · -13.22 | – |
| 2024 | 7–6 | #84 of 134 · -3.50 | – |
| 2023 | 7–6 | #67 of 133 · -0.59 | – |
| 2022 | 7–5 | #89 of 131 · -5.46 | – |
| 2021 | 5–7 | #100 of 130 · -9.66 | – |
| 2020 | 7–1 | #51 of 128 · 3.62 | – |
| 2019 | 5–7 | #112 of 130 · -12.05 | #78 of 130 · 9.69 |
| 2018 | 1–11 | #124 of 130 · -20.95 | #116 of 130 · -37.84 |
| 2017 | 2–11 | #126 of 130 · -26.09 | #130 of 130 · -104.43 |
| 2016 | 4–8 | #110 of 128 · -14.30 | #109 of 128 · -24.63 |
| 2015 | 6–7 | #91 of 128 · -6.91 | #80 of 128 · 9.82 |
| 2014 | 3–9 | #101 of 128 · -11.74 | #113 of 128 · -25.71 |
| 2013 | 6–6 | #73 of 125 · -3.06 | #82 of 126 · 7.73 |
| 2012 | 11–2 | #51 of 124 · 4.98 | #20 of 124 · 62.30 |
| 2011 | 5–7 | #96 of 120 · -10.53 | #76 of 120 · 9.25 |
| 2010 | 1–12 | #111 of 120 · -20.33 | #109 of 120 · -35.82 |
| 2009 | 2–10 | #113 of 120 · -20.34 | #115 of 120 · -52.79 |
| 2008 | 6–6 | #98 of 120 · -11.48 | #81 of 120 · 7.88 |
| 2007 | 5–7 | #93 of 119 · -12.13 | #93 of 120 · -8.29 |
| 2006 | 9–4 | #80 of 119 · -6.88 | #50 of 119 · 34.81 |
| 2005 | 3–8 | #113 of 119 · -20.16 | #108 of 119 · -28.14 |
| 2004 | 2–9 | #109 of 117 · -19.57 | #113 of 117 · -42.16 |
| 2003 | 3–8 | #101 of 117 · -14.42 | #96 of 117 · -13.71 |
| 2002 | 6–7 | #87 of 117 · -9.57 | – |
| 2001 | 3–9 | #91 of 117 · -11.19 | – |
| 2000 | 7–5 | #76 of 116 · -4.27 | – |
| 1999 | 3–7 | #99 of 114 · -14.50 | – |
| 1998 | 4–8 | #89 of 112 · -11.47 | – |
| 1997 | 4–7 | #100 of 112 · -17.72 | – |
| 1996 | 3–9 | #100 of 111 · -20.04 | – |
| 1995 | 3–8 | #99 of 108 · -18.47 | – |
| 1994 | 3–8 | #95 of 107 · -16.73 | – |
| 1993 | 2–9 | #75 of 106 · -7.95 | – |
| 1992 | 7–4 | #71 of 107 · -3.84 | – |
| 1991 | 6–5 | #43 of 107 · 3.28 | – |
| 1990 | 9–3 | #28 of 107 · 9.03 | – |
| 1989 | 6–5 | #64 of 106 · -3.66 | – |
| 1988 | 4–8 | #71 of 104 · -5.67 | – |
| 1987 | 10–2 | #36 of 104 · 5.49 | – |
| 1986 | 10–2 | #36 of 105 · 4.03 | – |
| 1985 | 2–9 | #87 of 106 · -12.80 | – |
| 1984 | 6–5 | #66 of 106 · -2.17 | – |
| 1983 | 5–6 | #61 of 105 · -3.24 | – |
| 1982 | 8–3 | #42 of 105 · 2.02 | – |
| 1981 | 9–3 | #41 of 136 · 5.61 | – |
| 1980 | 7–4 | #72 of 138 · -0.94 | – |
| 1979 | 6–5 | #66 of 138 · -0.13 | – |
| 1978 | 7–5 | #79 of 138 · -1.73 | – |