UNLV
Mountain West · 5–4 · 3–2 in conference · MRI Classic #72
Who to root for this week
Nothing this weekend moves the needle.
Hidden HeismanJackson Arnold · Week 5How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 4). After 9 games, w is 69%, so the preseason prior is 31% of this rating. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +0.9 avg | × 69% | +0.6 |
| Opponents faced | -8.9 avg | × 69% | -6.2 |
| Preseason prior | -1.8 | × 31% | -0.5 |
| Power | -6.1 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs | Memphis | L 21–27 | -7.1 | +1.1 | -0.5 |
| 1 | at | Hawaii | W 21–6 | +2.5 | +12.5 | +0.8 |
| 2 | at | North Texas | L 6–44 | -12.2 | -25.8 | -2.6 |
| 4 | at | Akron | W 38–10 | +13.6 | +14.4 | +1.0 |
| 5 | vs | California | W 39–31 | +4.5 | +3.5 | +0.0 |
| 6 | vs | North Dakota State | W 13–7 | -0.0 | +6.0 | +0.1 |
| 7 | at | Air Force | L 31–41 | -5.2 | -4.8 | -1.1 |
| 9 | vs | Northern Illinois | W 31–24 | +21.9 | -14.9 | -1.4 |
| 10 | vs | Wyoming | L 35–41 | +10.2 | -16.2 | -1.9 |
| Preseason prior (31% of the rating) | -0.5 | |||||
| Power | -6.1 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | at | New Mexico | -14.8 | 18% |
| 12 | at | San Jose State | +3.5 | 58% |
| 13 | vs | Nevada | +10.1 | 73% |
Hidden Heisman
The week’s biggest game from outside the power conferences, from a player the Heisman odds were not talking about. How it is picked.
| Season | Wk | Player | Opponent | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5 | Jackson Arnold | vs California | 177 pass, 3 TD · 110 rush, 2 TD |
Coaches
Mean added leaves out 1978–1980, the first seasons rated, which have no preseason prior to measure against.
| Coach | Years | Record | Mean added |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Knap | 1978–1981 | 29-15-2 | -10.4 |
| Harvey Hyde | 1982–1985 | 26-19-1 | -2.6 |
| Wayne Nunnely | 1986–1989 | 19-25 | -6.2 |
| Jim Strong | 1990–1993 | 17-27 | -6.0 |
| Jeff Horton | 1994–1998 | 13-44 | -6.1 |
| John Robinson | 1999–2004 | 28-42 | -1.3 |
| Mike Sanford Sr. | 2005–2009 | 16-43 | -4.1 |
| Bobby Hauck | 2010–2014 | 15-49 | -6.9 |
| Tony Sanchez | 2015–2019 | 20-40 | -4.1 |
| Marcus Arroyo | 2020–2022 | 7-23 | -5.8 |
| Barry Odom | 2023–2024 | 20-8 | +8.7 |
| Dan Mullen | 2025–2026 | 15-8 | -2.6 |
Season by season
Best finish: #40 in 1980. 48 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 150 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10–4 | #68 of 136 · -0.40 | – |
| 2024 | 11–3 | #42 of 134 · 7.13 | – |
| 2023 | 9–5 | #73 of 133 · -2.22 | – |
| 2022 | 5–7 | #106 of 131 · -10.90 | – |
| 2021 | 2–10 | #111 of 130 · -14.76 | – |
| 2020 | 0–6 | #120 of 128 · -19.07 | – |
| 2019 | 4–8 | #117 of 130 · -16.60 | #118 of 130 · -37.74 |
| 2018 | 4–8 | #108 of 130 · -15.16 | #108 of 130 · -28.11 |
| 2017 | 5–7 | #101 of 130 · -11.40 | #96 of 130 · 0.99 |
| 2016 | 4–8 | #112 of 128 · -14.57 | #106 of 128 · -21.36 |
| 2015 | 3–9 | #102 of 128 · -14.42 | #102 of 128 · -16.52 |
| 2014 | 2–11 | #120 of 128 · -19.55 | #125 of 128 · -54.66 |
| 2013 | 7–6 | #97 of 125 · -10.46 | #80 of 126 · 11.20 |
| 2012 | 2–11 | #116 of 124 · -19.33 | #116 of 124 · -40.84 |
| 2011 | 2–10 | #115 of 120 · -23.00 | #116 of 120 · -66.02 |
| 2010 | 2–11 | #108 of 120 · -18.22 | #115 of 120 · -51.79 |
| 2009 | 5–7 | #92 of 120 · -10.13 | #98 of 120 · -6.10 |
| 2008 | 5–7 | #97 of 120 · -10.82 | #92 of 120 · -7.00 |
| 2007 | 2–10 | #94 of 119 · -12.32 | #91 of 120 · -6.04 |
| 2006 | 2–10 | #107 of 119 · -15.24 | #110 of 119 · -34.71 |
| 2005 | 2–9 | #106 of 119 · -17.59 | #109 of 119 · -28.99 |
| 2004 | 2–9 | #91 of 117 · -10.32 | #102 of 117 · -20.34 |
| 2003 | 6–6 | #69 of 117 · -3.29 | #68 of 117 · 22.95 |
| 2002 | 5–7 | #79 of 117 · -6.76 | – |
| 2001 | 4–7 | #67 of 117 · -0.18 | – |
| 2000 | 8–5 | #64 of 116 · -0.16 | – |
| 1999 | 3–8 | #104 of 114 · -17.99 | – |
| 1998 | 0–11 | #104 of 112 · -17.91 | – |
| 1997 | 3–8 | #94 of 112 · -14.47 | – |
| 1996 | 1–11 | #107 of 111 · -24.25 | – |
| 1995 | 2–9 | #108 of 108 · -34.13 | – |
| 1994 | 7–5 | #90 of 107 · -13.53 | – |
| 1993 | 3–8 | #100 of 106 · -19.49 | – |
| 1992 | 6–5 | #100 of 107 · -18.59 | – |
| 1991 | 4–7 | #102 of 107 · -22.93 | – |
| 1990 | 4–7 | #101 of 107 · -19.06 | – |
| 1989 | 4–7 | #96 of 106 · -20.02 | – |
| 1988 | 4–7 | #95 of 104 · -20.08 | – |
| 1987 | 5–6 | #88 of 104 · -13.27 | – |
| 1986 | 6–5 | #70 of 105 · -7.33 | – |
| 1985 | 5–6 | #79 of 106 · -9.84 | – |
| 1984 | 11–2 | #51 of 106 · 1.39 | – |
| 1983 | 7–4 | #67 of 105 · -4.39 | – |
| 1982 | 3–8 | #90 of 105 · -12.84 | – |
| 1981 | 6–6 | #97 of 136 · -6.52 | – |
| 1980 | 7–4 | #40 of 138 · 5.91 | – |
| 1979 | 9–3 | #54 of 138 · 2.94 | – |
| 1978 | 7–4 | #55 of 138 · 3.05 | – |