Rice
American · 1–8 · 0–5 in conference · MRI Classic #120
Who to root for this week
Nothing this weekend moves the needle.
Hidden HeismanGael Ochoa · Week 8How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 4). After 9 games, w is 69%, so the preseason prior is 31% of this rating. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -13.8 avg | × 69% | -9.6 |
| Opponents faced | -2.8 avg | × 69% | -1.9 |
| Preseason prior | -14.6 | × 31% | -4.5 |
| Power | -16.0 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs | Houston Christian FCS | W 31–3 | +20.7 | +7.3 | -1.2 |
| 2 | at | Notre Dame | L 0–52 | -48.6 | -3.4 | -1.1 |
| 3 | vs | Western Michigan | L 21–28 | -12.4 | +5.4 | -1.0 |
| 4 | at | Fresno State | L 24–38 | -19.6 | +5.6 | -1.1 |
| 5 | vs | UTSA | L 14–16 | -14.3 | +12.3 | -0.3 |
| 6 | at | East Carolina | L 12–28 | -13.4 | -2.6 | -1.8 |
| 7 | vs | Tulsa | L 17–38 | -10.8 | -10.2 | -2.4 |
| 8 | at | Florida Atlantic | L 49–51 | -13.0 | +11.0 | -0.5 |
| 10 | at | North Texas | L 23–52 | -22.1 | -6.9 | -2.1 |
| Preseason prior (31% of the rating) | -4.5 | |||||
| Power | -16.0 | |||||
Remaining schedule
Hidden Heisman
The week’s biggest game from outside the power conferences, from a player the Heisman odds were not talking about. How it is picked.
| Season | Wk | Player | Opponent | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8 | Gael Ochoa | vs Florida Atlantic | 80 pass, 1 TD · 259 rush, 4 TD |
Coaches
Mean added leaves out 1978–1980, the first seasons rated, which have no preseason prior to measure against.
| Coach | Years | Record | Mean added |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Alborn | 1978–1983 | 13-53 | -8.2 |
| Watson Brown | 1984–1985 | 4-18 | -1.8 |
| Jerry Berndt | 1986–1988 | 6-27 | -4.9 |
| Fred Goldsmith | 1989–1993 | 23-31-1 | +0.2 |
| Ken Hatfield | 1994–2005 | 55-78-1 | -3.1 |
| Todd Graham | 2006 | 7-6 | +3.2 |
| David Bailiff | 2007–2017 | 57-80 | -4.9 |
| Mike Bloomgren | 2018–2024 | 24-52 | -3.4 |
| Scott Abell | 2025–2026 | 6-16 | -4.1 |
Season by season
Best finish: #30 in 2008. 48 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 150 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5–8 | #126 of 136 · -18.10 | – |
| 2024 | 4–8 | #107 of 134 · -10.15 | – |
| 2023 | 6–7 | #95 of 133 · -6.90 | – |
| 2022 | 5–8 | #115 of 131 · -14.75 | – |
| 2021 | 4–8 | #118 of 130 · -16.65 | – |
| 2020 | 2–3 | #96 of 128 · -6.94 | – |
| 2019 | 3–9 | #119 of 130 · -18.22 | #106 of 130 · -16.40 |
| 2018 | 2–11 | #128 of 130 · -26.78 | #128 of 130 · -57.59 |
| 2017 | 1–11 | #125 of 130 · -24.96 | #122 of 130 · -54.55 |
| 2016 | 3–9 | #119 of 128 · -18.66 | #122 of 128 · -42.49 |
| 2015 | 5–7 | #103 of 128 · -14.52 | #101 of 128 · -15.82 |
| 2014 | 8–5 | #76 of 128 · -3.25 | #59 of 128 · 29.38 |
| 2013 | 10–4 | #68 of 125 · -2.12 | #47 of 126 · 39.99 |
| 2012 | 7–6 | #84 of 124 · -6.57 | #66 of 124 · 21.16 |
| 2011 | 4–8 | #102 of 120 · -13.66 | #91 of 120 · -5.57 |
| 2010 | 4–8 | #106 of 120 · -17.91 | #99 of 120 · -17.92 |
| 2009 | 2–10 | #112 of 120 · -20.16 | #116 of 120 · -65.13 |
| 2008 | 10–3 | #65 of 120 · -1.53 | #30 of 120 · 46.53 |
| 2007 | 3–9 | #109 of 119 · -16.78 | #111 of 120 · -33.80 |
| 2006 | 7–6 | #96 of 119 · -10.52 | #80 of 119 · 4.95 |
| 2005 | 1–10 | #110 of 119 · -19.86 | #111 of 119 · -36.29 |
| 2004 | 3–8 | #101 of 117 · -14.07 | #91 of 117 · -2.34 |
| 2003 | 5–7 | #90 of 117 · -10.47 | #78 of 117 · 6.58 |
| 2002 | 4–7 | #89 of 117 · -10.31 | – |
| 2001 | 8–4 | #81 of 117 · -5.95 | – |
| 2000 | 3–8 | #85 of 116 · -7.60 | – |
| 1999 | 5–6 | #68 of 114 · -2.54 | – |
| 1998 | 5–6 | #55 of 112 · -0.50 | – |
| 1997 | 7–4 | #57 of 112 · 0.29 | – |
| 1996 | 7–4 | #54 of 111 · 0.76 | – |
| 1995 | 2–9 | #77 of 108 · -7.52 | – |
| 1994 | 5–6 | #66 of 107 · -2.36 | – |
| 1993 | 6–5 | #62 of 106 · -3.32 | – |
| 1992 | 6–5 | #59 of 107 · -1.22 | – |
| 1991 | 4–7 | #63 of 107 · -3.32 | – |
| 1990 | 5–6 | #62 of 107 · -2.28 | – |
| 1989 | 2–9 | #82 of 106 · -10.57 | – |
| 1988 | 0–11 | #88 of 104 · -14.23 | – |
| 1987 | 2–9 | #96 of 104 · -16.71 | – |
| 1986 | 4–7 | #94 of 105 · -15.55 | – |
| 1985 | 3–8 | #88 of 106 · -12.81 | – |
| 1984 | 1–10 | #95 of 106 · -15.15 | – |
| 1983 | 1–10 | #99 of 105 · -19.30 | – |
| 1982 | 0–11 | #93 of 105 · -15.00 | – |
| 1981 | 4–7 | #91 of 136 · -5.24 | – |
| 1980 | 5–6 | #76 of 138 · -1.35 | – |
| 1979 | 1–10 | #124 of 138 · -16.20 | – |
| 1978 | 2–9 | #128 of 138 · -14.93 | – |