Oregon

Big Ten · 6–3 · 4–2 in conference · MRI Classic #36

Power+22.1#8 of 138

Résumé+3.63#11 · wins above average

Playoff chance51%#11 most likely · +1.3 pts this week

Trendrating by week

Who to root for this week

5 games · top: Northwestern over Ohio State, +4.8 pts playoff odds

The games this week that move its playoff odds most, and the side to cheer. Other teams’ games only; its own game is in the schedule below. How these are worked out.

NorthwesternatOhio State
Root forNorthwestern14% to winupset needed

Playoff odds55% if they win · 50% if not +4.8 pts
IllinoisatUCLA
Root forIllinois22% to winupset needed

Playoff odds53% if they win · 50% if not +3.0 pts
TennesseeatTexas A&M
Root forTexas A&M45% to winupset needed

Playoff odds53% if they win · 50% if not +2.7 pts
USCatIndiana
Root forUSC36% to winupset needed

Playoff odds53% if they win · 50% if not +2.4 pts
Ole MissatOklahoma
Root forOklahoma43% to winupset needed

Playoff odds52% if they win · 50% if not +2.2 pts

Best winOhio State (41–28)
Worst lossOklahoma State (31–39)
Schedule faced+8.4 avg opponent
Schedule ahead+6.9 avg opponent
Roster talent#3 of 127 · worth +15.9, rated +22.1: beating it
Returning production75% of last year's · #17 of 128
Home field+3.4 pts · 28th of 131

How this rating is built

Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 4). After 9 games, w is 69%, so the preseason prior is 31% of this rating. Every game played shrinks that share.

Part	Value	Weight	Adds
Margin counted	+9.0 avg	× 69%	+6.2
Opponents faced	+8.4 avg	× 69%	+5.9
Preseason prior	+32.5	× 31%	+10.0
Power			+22.1

This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.

Results

Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.

Wk		Opponent	Result	Expected	Perf	Adds
1	vs	Boise State	W 34–27	+13.7	-6.7	+1.4
2	at	Oklahoma State	L 31–39	+12.0	-20.0	-0.1
3	vs	Portland State FCS	W 84–0	+58.8	+25.2	+1.0
4	at	USC	W 41–27	+1.6	+12.4	+3.0
6	vs	UCLA	L 15–17	+7.7	-9.7	+0.9
7	vs	Nebraska	W 17–14	+12.6	-9.6	+1.1
8	at	Illinois	L 10–21	+11.2	-22.2	-0.3
9	vs	Northwestern	W 34–26	+13.0	-5.0	+1.5
10	at	Ohio State	W 41–28	-7.7	+20.7	+3.6
Preseason prior (31% of the rating)						+10.0
Power						+22.1

Remaining schedule

Wk		Opponent	Projected	Win prob
11	vs	Michigan	+14.6	81%
12	at	Michigan State	+17.1	85%
13	vs	Washington	+16.7	84%

Coaches

Mean added leaves out 1978–1980, the first seasons rated, which have no preseason prior to measure against.

Coach	Years	Record	Mean added
Rich Brooks	1978–1994	89-100-4	+1.1
Mike Bellotti	1995–2008	116-55	+3.8
Chip Kelly	2009–2012	46-7	+9.7
Mark Helfrich	2013–2016	37-16	+0.9
Willie Taggart	2017	7-6	+4.8
Mario Cristobal	2018–2021	35-12	+4.2
Dan Lanning	2022–2026	54-11	+7.3

Season by season

Best finish: #1 in 2014. 48 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.

Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 100 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.

Season	Rec	MRI 2.0	MRI Classic
2025	13–2	#4 of 136 · 26.15	–
2024	13–1	#5 of 134 · 24.35	–
2023	12–2	#4 of 133 · 26.48	–
2022	10–3	#15 of 131 · 15.16	–
2021	10–4	#27 of 130 · 10.97	–
2020	4–3	#23 of 128 · 12.47	–
2019	12–2	#13 of 130 · 19.16	#7 of 130 · 90.94
2018	9–4	#38 of 130 · 7.48	#51 of 130 · 32.41
2017	7–6	#38 of 130 · 7.01	#49 of 130 · 35.84
2016	4–8	#57 of 128 · 3.18	#88 of 128 · 0.50
2015	9–4	#17 of 128 · 16.03	#34 of 128 · 52.17
2014	13–2	#1 of 128 · 29.72	#2 of 128 · 123.51
2013	11–2	#3 of 125 · 29.51	#3 of 126 · 98.69
2012	12–1	#2 of 124 · 30.95	#2 of 124 · 111.26
2011	12–2	#3 of 120 · 27.10	#7 of 120 · 98.78
2010	12–1	#1 of 120 · 27.71	#5 of 120 · 110.99
2009	10–3	#8 of 120 · 19.08	#8 of 120 · 80.05
2008	10–3	#6 of 120 · 19.78	#13 of 120 · 75.05
2007	9–4	#8 of 119 · 19.42	#8 of 120 · 92.35
2006	7–6	#30 of 119 · 9.19	#47 of 119 · 38.03
2005	10–2	#18 of 119 · 14.35	#18 of 119 · 70.90
2004	5–6	#46 of 117 · 3.66	#54 of 117 · 31.24
2003	8–5	#40 of 117 · 6.06	#58 of 117 · 32.77
2002	7–6	#34 of 117 · 7.73	–
2001	11–1	#9 of 117 · 17.79	–
2000	10–2	#17 of 116 · 14.09	–
1999	9–3	#16 of 114 · 12.68	–
1998	8–4	#18 of 112 · 14.92	–
1997	7–5	#27 of 112 · 9.93	–
1996	6–5	#33 of 111 · 8.04	–
1995	9–3	#24 of 108 · 10.60	–
1994	9–4	#23 of 107 · 12.10	–
1993	5–6	#34 of 106 · 5.74	–
1992	6–6	#34 of 107 · 5.66	–
1991	3–8	#46 of 107 · 2.62	–
1990	8–4	#25 of 107 · 11.46	–
1989	8–4	#23 of 106 · 13.01	–
1988	6–6	#34 of 104 · 5.51	–
1987	6–5	#37 of 104 · 5.45	–
1986	5–6	#52 of 105 · 0.18	–
1985	5–6	#50 of 106 · 1.82	–
1984	6–5	#62 of 106 · -1.13	–
1983	4–7	#71 of 105 · -5.29	–
1982	2–9	#74 of 105 · -5.82	–
1981	2–9	#80 of 136 · -3.11	–
1980	6–5	#27 of 138 · 10.17	–
1979	6–5	#69 of 138 · -0.42	–
1978	2–9	#82 of 138 · -2.71	–