MRI Champion · 6 football titles 1998, 2014, 2017, 2019, 2024, 2025

Ohio State

Big Ten · 6–3 · 4–2 in conference · MRI Classic #13

Power+26.8#5 of 138

Résumé+2.81#22 · wins above average

Playoff chance56%#10 most likely · -0.8 pts this week

Trendrating by week

Who to root for this week

5 games · top: Michigan over Oregon, +3.9 pts playoff odds

The games this week that move its playoff odds most, and the side to cheer. Other teams’ games only; its own game is in the schedule below. How these are worked out.

MichiganatOregon
Root forMichigan19% to winupset needed

Playoff odds59% if they win · 55% if not +3.9 pts
IllinoisatUCLA
Root forIllinois22% to winupset needed

Playoff odds59% if they win · 55% if not +3.4 pts
TennesseeatTexas A&M
Root forTexas A&M45% to winupset needed

Playoff odds57% if they win · 55% if not +2.7 pts
Ole MissatOklahoma
Root forOklahoma43% to winupset needed

Playoff odds58% if they win · 55% if not +2.6 pts
TexasatLSU
Root forTexas54% to win

Playoff odds57% if they win · 55% if not +2.4 pts

Best winIndiana (19–15)
Worst lossUSC (18–30)
Schedule faced+7.3 avg opponent
Schedule ahead+11.7 avg opponent
HeismanJeremiah Smith · 6.0% to win
Roster talent#5 of 127 · worth +14.9, rated +26.8: beating it
Returning production68% of last year's · #27 of 128
Home field+2.9 pts · 67th of 131

How this rating is built

Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 4). After 9 games, w is 69%, so the preseason prior is 31% of this rating. Every game played shrinks that share.

Part	Value	Weight	Adds
Margin counted	+16.3 avg	× 69%	+11.3
Opponents faced	+7.3 avg	× 69%	+5.1
Preseason prior	+33.8	× 31%	+10.4
Power			+26.8

This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.

Results

Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.

Wk		Opponent	Result	Expected	Perf	Adds
1	vs	Ball State	W 56–3	+52.6	+0.4	+1.6
2	at	Texas	L 23–24	-4.2	+3.2	+2.3
3	vs	Kent State	W 59–3	+50.6	+5.4	+1.9
4	vs	Illinois	W 42–19	+21.9	+1.1	+2.6
5	at	Iowa	W 31–14	+8.4	+8.6	+3.1
6	vs	Maryland	W 45–16	+31.4	-2.4	+2.2
7	at	Indiana	W 19–15	+3.4	+0.6	+2.2
9	at	USC	L 18–30	+6.2	-18.2	+0.3
10	vs	Oregon	L 28–41	+7.7	-20.7	+0.2
Preseason prior (31% of the rating)						+10.4
Power						+26.8

Remaining schedule

Wk		Opponent	Projected	Win prob
11	vs	Northwestern	+17.7	86%
12	at	Nebraska	+11.2	75%
13	vs	Michigan	+19.2	88%

Coaches

Mean added leaves out 1978–1980, the first seasons rated, which have no preseason prior to measure against.

Coach	Years	Record	Mean added
Woody Hayes	1978	7-4-1	–
Earle Bruce	1979–1987	81-26-1	+3.8
John Cooper	1988–2000	111-43-4	+5.4
Jim Tressel	2001–2010	106-22	+6.1
Luke Fickell	2011	6-7	-7.6
Urban Meyer	2012–2018	83-9	+8.5
Ryan Day	2019–2026	85-15	+10.1

Season by season

Best finish: #1 in 2025. 48 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.

Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 75 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.

Season	Rec	MRI 2.0	MRI Classic
2025	12–2	#1 of 136 · 30.62	–
2024	14–2	#1 of 134 · 31.12	–
2023	11–2	#3 of 133 · 26.73	–
2022	11–2	#2 of 131 · 30.95	–
2021	11–2	#2 of 130 · 29.13	–
2020	7–1	#2 of 128 · 32.42	–
2019	13–1	#1 of 130 · 37.73	#1 of 130 · 169.63
2018	13–1	#4 of 130 · 23.68	#4 of 130 · 95.29
2017	12–2	#2 of 130 · 28.92	#1 of 130 · 124.14
2016	11–2	#2 of 128 · 27.00	#3 of 128 · 114.93
2015	12–1	#2 of 128 · 25.60	#2 of 128 · 112.73
2014	14–1	#2 of 128 · 26.87	#1 of 128 · 123.96
2013	12–2	#8 of 125 · 21.13	#7 of 126 · 87.84
2012	12–0	#17 of 124 · 14.60	#7 of 124 · 78.23
2011	6–7	#27 of 120 · 9.07	#53 of 120 · 28.53
2010	12–1	#6 of 120 · 23.28	#4 of 120 · 114.22
2009	11–2	#9 of 120 · 18.92	#6 of 120 · 93.28
2008	10–3	#7 of 120 · 19.58	#10 of 120 · 80.65
2007	11–2	#6 of 119 · 21.14	#9 of 120 · 92.26
2006	12–1	#2 of 119 · 25.58	#2 of 119 · 111.69
2005	10–2	#4 of 119 · 23.90	#5 of 119 · 105.52
2004	8–4	#20 of 117 · 13.05	#27 of 117 · 59.69
2003	11–2	#14 of 117 · 15.34	#20 of 117 · 69.19
2002	14–0	#7 of 117 · 19.57	–
2001	7–5	#19 of 117 · 11.86	–
2000	8–4	#12 of 116 · 15.49	–
1999	6–6	#17 of 114 · 12.53	–
1998	11–1	#1 of 112 · 28.78	–
1997	10–3	#4 of 112 · 26.37	–
1996	11–1	#3 of 111 · 31.55	–
1995	11–2	#4 of 108 · 27.45	–
1994	9–4	#11 of 107 · 17.23	–
1993	10–2	#11 of 106 · 17.71	–
1992	8–4	#15 of 107 · 13.55	–
1991	8–4	#23 of 107 · 10.56	–
1990	7–5	#26 of 107 · 11.41	–
1989	8–4	#33 of 106 · 7.40	–
1988	4–7	#37 of 104 · 3.87	–
1987	6–5	#22 of 104 · 12.07	–
1986	10–3	#11 of 105 · 18.53	–
1985	9–3	#14 of 106 · 15.48	–
1984	9–3	#6 of 106 · 15.28	–
1983	9–3	#10 of 105 · 16.90	–
1982	9–3	#18 of 105 · 13.58	–
1981	9–3	#20 of 136 · 14.41	–
1980	9–3	#10 of 138 · 19.52	–
1979	11–1	#6 of 138 · 19.05	–
1978	7–5	#25 of 138 · 9.00	–