Iowa

Big Ten · 7–2 · 4–2 in conference · MRI Classic #28

Power+15.3#18 of 138

Résumé+3.35#14 · wins above average

Playoff chance17%#19 most likely · +0.7 pts this week

Trendrating by week

Who to root for this week

5 games · top: Michigan over Oregon, +3.2 pts playoff odds

The games this week that move its playoff odds most, and the side to cheer. Other teams’ games only; its own game is in the schedule below. How these are worked out.

MichiganatOregon
Root forMichigan19% to winupset needed

Playoff odds20% if they win · 16% if not +3.2 pts
IllinoisatUCLA
Root forIllinois22% to winupset needed

Playoff odds19% if they win · 16% if not +2.6 pts
NorthwesternatOhio State
Root forNorthwestern14% to winupset needed

Playoff odds19% if they win · 17% if not +2.5 pts
TennesseeatTexas A&M
Root forTexas A&M45% to winupset needed

Playoff odds18% if they win · 16% if not +1.8 pts
USCatIndiana
Root forUSC36% to winupset needed

Playoff odds18% if they win · 16% if not +1.6 pts

Best winNorthwestern (24–10)
Worst lossMinnesota (10–13)
Schedule faced+1.0 avg opponent
Schedule ahead+6.9 avg opponent
Roster talent#43 of 127 · worth +2.1, rated +15.3: beating it
Returning production34% of last year's · #79 of 128
Home field+2.7 pts · 88th of 131

How this rating is built

Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 4). After 9 games, w is 69%, so the preseason prior is 31% of this rating. Every game played shrinks that share.

Part	Value	Weight	Adds
Margin counted	+15.6 avg	× 69%	+10.8
Opponents faced	+1.0 avg	× 69%	+0.7
Preseason prior	+12.5	× 31%	+3.8
Power			+15.3

This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.

Results

Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.

Wk		Opponent	Result	Expected	Perf	Adds
1	vs	Northern Illinois	W 40–0	+43.4	-3.4	+1.0
2	vs	Iowa State	W 16–13	+16.9	-13.9	+0.2
3	vs	Northern Iowa FCS	W 55–0	+52.0	+3.0	+0.5
4	at	Michigan	W 20–19	+1.7	-0.7	+1.1
5	vs	Ohio State	L 14–31	-8.4	-8.6	+0.2
6	at	Washington	W 41–24	+3.8	+13.2	+2.5
8	at	Minnesota	L 10–13	+8.9	-11.9	+0.2
9	vs	Wisconsin	W 30–0	+8.5	+21.5	+3.2
10	at	Northwestern	W 24–10	+0.2	+13.8	+2.6
Preseason prior (31% of the rating)						+3.8
Power						+15.3

Remaining schedule

Wk		Opponent	Projected	Win prob
11	vs	Purdue	+18.0	86%
12	at	Illinois	+4.4	61%
13	vs	Nebraska	+5.8	64%

Coaches

Mean added leaves out 1978–1980, the first seasons rated, which have no preseason prior to measure against.

Coach	Years	Record	Mean added
Bob Commings	1978	2-9	–
Hayden Fry	1979–1998	143-89-6	+2.9
Kirk Ferentz	1999–2026	220-130	+3.6

Season by season

Best finish: #9 in 2020. 48 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.

Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 150 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.

Season	Rec	MRI 2.0	MRI Classic
2025	9–4	#17 of 136 · 17.24	–
2024	8–5	#21 of 134 · 13.07	–
2023	10–4	#41 of 133 · 6.66	–
2022	8–5	#23 of 131 · 12.00	–
2021	10–4	#22 of 130 · 12.50	–
2020	6–2	#9 of 128 · 20.07	–
2019	10–3	#15 of 130 · 17.58	#15 of 130 · 72.94
2018	9–4	#14 of 130 · 16.10	#12 of 130 · 70.35
2017	8–5	#20 of 130 · 14.59	#14 of 130 · 70.83
2016	8–5	#38 of 128 · 7.48	#41 of 128 · 42.86
2015	12–2	#36 of 128 · 9.58	#23 of 128 · 65.16
2014	7–6	#55 of 128 · 2.69	#64 of 128 · 23.92
2013	8–5	#42 of 125 · 7.27	#41 of 126 · 45.68
2012	4–8	#68 of 124 · -1.67	#75 of 124 · 9.65
2011	7–6	#40 of 120 · 5.71	#55 of 120 · 28.22
2010	8–5	#19 of 120 · 12.97	#23 of 120 · 61.88
2009	11–2	#26 of 120 · 10.60	#17 of 120 · 63.17
2008	9–4	#19 of 120 · 12.35	#17 of 120 · 65.92
2007	6–6	#65 of 119 · -0.42	#69 of 120 · 18.92
2006	6–7	#41 of 119 · 6.65	#60 of 119 · 26.51
2005	7–5	#22 of 119 · 13.39	#28 of 119 · 55.31
2004	10–2	#17 of 117 · 14.89	#15 of 117 · 76.94
2003	10–3	#10 of 117 · 17.80	#17 of 117 · 71.23
2002	11–2	#9 of 117 · 17.83	–
2001	7–5	#26 of 117 · 10.13	–
2000	3–9	#72 of 116 · -3.35	–
1999	1–10	#82 of 114 · -7.16	–
1998	3–8	#54 of 112 · -0.33	–
1997	7–5	#11 of 112 · 17.79	–
1996	9–3	#17 of 111 · 15.53	–
1995	8–4	#23 of 108 · 10.96	–
1994	5–6	#50 of 107 · 2.61	–
1993	6–6	#59 of 106 · -2.64	–
1992	5–7	#37 of 107 · 4.60	–
1991	10–2	#17 of 107 · 14.09	–
1990	8–4	#24 of 107 · 11.62	–
1989	5–6	#55 of 106 · -0.54	–
1988	6–7	#26 of 104 · 10.40	–
1987	10–3	#19 of 104 · 13.63	–
1986	9–3	#16 of 105 · 14.17	–
1985	10–2	#9 of 106 · 17.86	–
1984	8–5	#10 of 106 · 12.99	–
1983	9–3	#15 of 105 · 13.99	–
1982	8–4	#36 of 105 · 3.46	–
1981	8–4	#31 of 136 · 8.93	–
1980	4–7	#85 of 138 · -3.00	–
1979	5–6	#71 of 138 · -0.87	–
1978	2–9	#127 of 138 · -14.66	–