The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 1 slate, 1986

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 12 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 61

Wilder than 61% of weeks in the archive.

3 upsets against 2.7 expected

  • Biggest shockAngelo State over New Mexico State16% chance · won 20-14
  • Runner-upLouisiana Tech over Tulsa32% chance · won 22-17
  • Runner-upBall State over Northern Illinois37% chance · won 20-10

Wed, Aug 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#15Ohio State@#12Alabama
39%
61%
10
16
✓
ALA −3.9
–
–

Sat, Aug 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Hawaii@#6Air Force
20%
80%
17
24
✓
AF −12.3
–
–
Final
Ball State@Northern Illinois
37%
63%
20
10
✗
NIU −4.7
–
–
Final
Toledo@#17Florida State
17%
83%
0
24
✓
FSU −14.1
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@South Carolina
80%
20%
34
14
✓
MIA −13.2
–
–

Mon, Sep 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#13Maryland@Pittsburgh
57%
43%
10
7
✓
MD −3.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Aug 30 · TBD Angelo State at New Mexico State New Mexico State −14.9 84%
Sat, Aug 30 · TBD Georgia Southern at #7 Florida Florida −26.7 96%
Sat, Aug 30 · TBD Western Illinois at Kansas State Kansas State −15.2 84%
Sat, Aug 30 · TBD Louisiana Tech at Tulsa Tulsa −6.7 68%
Sat, Aug 30 · TBD Cal State Fullerton at Nevada Nevada −22.6 93%
Sat, Aug 30 · TBD Northern Michigan at UTEP UTEP −16.5 86%