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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 8 slate, 1986

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 89

Wilder than 89% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 13.9 expected

  • Biggest shockPennsylvania over Navy1.9% chance · won 30-26
  • Runner-upHoly Cross over Army3.5% chance · won 17-14
  • Runner-upWestern Michigan over Miami (OH)11% chance · won 27-17

Upsets

Sat, Oct 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 48 games

Final
#5Alabama@Tennessee
73%
27%
56
28
✓
ALA −10.1
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#11Arizona
4.0%
96%
12
23
✓
ARIZ −27.8
–
–
Final
#10Arizona State@#24USC
58%
42%
29
20
✓
ASU −3.9
–
–
Final
#22Arkansas@Texas
67%
33%
21
14
✓
ARK −7.3
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#8Auburn
19%
81%
10
31
✓
AUB −13.5
–
–
Final
Kent State@Ball State
36%
64%
17
26
✓
BALL −5.3
–
–
Final
Louisville@Boston College
19%
81%
7
41
✓
BC −13.7
–
–
Final
BYU@Wyoming
56%
44%
34
22
✓
BYU −2.8
–
–
Final
Utah State@Cal State Fullerton
71%
29%
0
33
✗
USU −9.1
–
–
Final
Duke@#23Clemson
15%
85%
3
35
✓
CLEM −16.0
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Colorado
33%
67%
3
31
✓
COLO −6.5
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Colorado State
41%
59%
7
31
✓
CSU −3.2
–
–
Final
Ohio@Eastern Michigan
25%
75%
31
33
✓
EMU −10.3
–
–
Final
#19Florida@Rutgers
58%
42%
15
3
✓
FLA −3.7
–
–
Final
Wichita State@#14Florida State
0.5%
>99%
3
59
✓
FSU −40.9
–
–
Final
Pacific@Fresno State
13%
87%
9
10
✓
FRES −17.9
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#20Georgia
6.8%
93%
16
38
✓
UGA −23.5
–
–
Final
Kansas@Kansas State
66%
34%
12
29
✗
KU −7.0
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@New Mexico State
68%
32%
38
7
✓
Long Beach State −8.0
–
–
Final
#12LSU@#25Kentucky
52%
48%
25
16
✓
LSU −1.2
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@Cincinnati
95%
5.2%
45
13
✓
MIA −26.4
–
–
Final
#4Iowa@#6Michigan
45%
55%
17
20
✓
MICH −1.4
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Illinois
62%
38%
29
21
✓
MSU −5.4
–
–
Final
Indiana@Minnesota
46%
54%
17
19
✓
MINN −1.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Ole Miss
22%
78%
20
21
✓
MISS −11.9
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Tulane
86%
14%
34
27
✓
MSST −17.6
–
–
Final
Missouri@#3Nebraska
1.4%
99%
17
48
✓
NEB −35.1
–
–
Final
Utah@New Mexico
37%
63%
43
47
✓
UNM −5.0
–
–
Final
NC State@North Carolina
26%
74%
35
34
✗
UNC −9.5
–
–
Final
#16Air Force@Notre DameUpset
50%
50%
3
31
✓
AF −0.4
–
–
Final
#18Ohio State@Purdue
80%
20%
39
11
✓
OSU −13.8
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#2Oklahoma
2.2%
98%
0
19
✓
OU −32.0
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#9Penn State
12%
88%
3
42
✓
PSU −18.2
–
–
Final
San Diego State@UTEP
51%
49%
15
10
✓
SDSU −0.9
–
–
Final
San Jose State@UNLV
45%
55%
23
20
✗
UNLV −1.3
–
–
Final
Houston@SMU
15%
85%
3
10
✓
SMU −16.1
–
–
Final
Memphis@Southern Miss
9.5%
90%
9
14
✓
USM −20.5
–
–
Final
Stanford@Oregon
60%
40%
41
7
✓
STAN −4.3
–
–
Final
Temple@Virginia Tech
41%
59%
29
13
✗
VT −3.2
–
–
Final
#17Baylor@#13Texas A&M
37%
63%
30
31
✓
TA&M −4.9
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Rice
71%
29%
49
21
✓
TTU −9.2
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Toledo
21%
79%
28
29
✓
TOL −12.3
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Tulsa
50%
50%
6
42
✓
CMU −0.5
–
–
Final
#15UCLA@California
82%
18%
36
10
✓
UCLA −14.8
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Maryland
26%
74%
27
21
✗
MD −9.6
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@#7Washington
7.1%
93%
0
48
✓
WASH −23.1
–
–
Final
#21Miami (OH)@Western MichiganUpset
89%
11%
17
27
✗
M-OH −20.2
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Northwestern
55%
45%
35
27
✓
WIS −2.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 18 · TBD Georgia Southern at East Carolina East Carolina −9.1 73%
Sat, Oct 18 · TBD Holy Cross at Army Army −28.6 96%
Sat, Oct 18 · TBD North Texas at TCU TCU −0.5 52%
Sat, Oct 18 · TBD Pennsylvania at Navy Navy −32.9 98%