The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 1986

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 38 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 79

Wilder than 79% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 10.7 expected

  • Biggest shockRice over Air Force11% chance · won 21-17
  • Runner-upCalifornia over Stanford13% chance · won 17-11
  • Runner-upNorthwestern over Illinois25% chance · won 23-18

Upsets

Sat, Nov 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 35 games

Final
#6Arizona State@#14Arizona
56%
44%
17
34
✗
ASU −2.9
–
–
Final
#24Arkansas@SMU
53%
47%
41
0
✓
ARK −1.8
–
–
Final
Texas@#21Baylor
22%
78%
13
18
✓
BAY −11.6
–
–
Final
BYU@Utah
77%
23%
35
21
✓
BYU −12.5
–
–
Final
#19Stanford@CaliforniaUpset
87%
13%
11
17
✗
STAN −18.1
–
–
Final
Colorado@Kansas State
91%
9.0%
49
3
✓
COLO −21.8
–
–
Final
Utah State@Fresno State
6.3%
94%
7
14
✓
FRES −24.1
–
–
Final
#15Iowa@Minnesota
70%
30%
30
27
✓
IOWA −9.0
–
–
Final
#16Notre Dame@#10LSU
32%
68%
19
21
✓
LSU −7.2
–
–
Final
#5Michigan@#12Ohio State
50%
50%
26
24
✗
MICH −0.5
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@#23Michigan State
13%
87%
13
23
✓
MSU −17.3
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Ole Miss
29%
71%
3
24
✓
MISS −8.2
–
–
Final
Kansas@Missouri
35%
65%
0
48
✓
MIZ −5.5
–
–
Final
UNLV@Long Beach State
45%
55%
31
8
✗
Long Beach State −1.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Memphis
66%
34%
20
13
✓
UNM −6.9
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Duke
66%
34%
42
35
✓
UNC −7.3
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Illinois
25%
75%
23
18
✗
ILL −10.2
–
–
Final
#2Oklahoma@#3Nebraska
62%
38%
20
17
✓
OU −5.5
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Oklahoma State
35%
65%
14
21
✓
OKST −5.6
–
–
Final
Oregon@Oregon State
48%
52%
49
28
✗
ORST −0.2
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#4Penn State
15%
85%
14
34
✓
PSU −16.2
–
–
Final
Indiana@Purdue
74%
26%
15
17
✗
IU −10.5
–
–
Final
Air Force@RiceUpset
89%
11%
17
21
✗
AF −20.1
–
–
Final
Hawaii@San Diego State
45%
55%
5
35
✓
SDSU −1.6
–
–
Final
#25Clemson@South Carolina
56%
44%
21
21
✓
CLEM −2.7
–
–
Final
Louisville@Southern Miss
17%
83%
16
31
✓
USM −14.7
–
–
Final
Syracuse@West Virginia
42%
58%
34
23
✗
WVU −2.7
–
–
Final
Temple@Rutgers
45%
55%
29
22
✗
RUTG −1.5
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Tennessee
41%
59%
9
28
✓
TENN −3.1
–
–
Final
TCU@#17Texas A&M
5.2%
95%
10
74
✓
TA&M −25.7
–
–
Final
Houston@Texas Tech
21%
79%
7
34
✓
TTU −12.5
–
–
Final
Colorado State@UTEP
72%
28%
19
21
✗
CSU −9.8
–
–
Final
#18USC@#11UCLA
28%
72%
25
45
✓
UCLA −8.8
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Wake Forest
60%
40%
21
24
✗
GT −4.5
–
–
Final
#7Washington@Washington State
87%
13%
44
23
✓
WASH −18.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 22 · TBD Boston College at Holy Cross Boston College −34.6 98%
Sat, Nov 22 · TBD Louisiana Tech at Louisiana Louisiana −8.4 71%
Sat, Nov 22 · TBD Western Carolina at NC State NC State −33.6 98%