The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 1986

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 86

Wilder than 86% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 13.7 expected

  • Biggest shockWilliam & Mary over Virginia6.8% chance · won 41-37
  • Runner-upNorthern Illinois over Bowling Green14% chance · won 16-8
  • Runner-upOle Miss over LSU18% chance · won 21-19

Upsets

Sat, Nov 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 47 games

Final
#9Alabama@Mississippi State
72%
28%
38
3
✓
ALA −9.7
–
–
Final
#4Washington@#8Arizona State
46%
54%
21
34
✓
ASU −1.1
–
–
Final
Rice@#20Arkansas
2.1%
98%
14
45
✓
ARK −32.5
–
–
Final
Boston College@Army
74%
26%
27
20
✓
BC −10.6
–
–
Final
Clemson@Wake Forest
54%
46%
28
20
✓
CLEM −2.2
–
–
Final
Colorado@Oklahoma State
55%
44%
31
14
✓
COLO −2.7
–
–
Final
Ball State@Eastern Michigan
44%
56%
7
14
✓
EMU −1.9
–
–
Final
#6Auburn@#22Florida
62%
38%
17
18
✗
AUB −5.3
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Fresno State
4.5%
96%
20
30
✓
FRES −26.9
–
–
Final
Duke@Georgia Tech
17%
83%
6
34
✓
GT −14.5
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Utah
61%
39%
33
13
✓
HAW −4.8
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Indiana
27%
73%
7
21
✓
IU −9.4
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Missouri
47%
53%
37
14
✗
MIZ −0.7
–
–
Final
Kent State@Ohio
51%
49%
17
13
✓
KENT −1.1
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Utah State
59%
41%
14
3
✓
Long Beach State −4.1
–
–
Final
Memphis@Vanderbilt
31%
69%
22
21
✗
VAN −7.3
–
–
Final
#14Florida State@#1Miami (FL)
11%
89%
23
41
✓
MIA −19.1
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Miami (OH)
15%
85%
21
59
✓
M-OH −16.3
–
–
Final
Illinois@#5Michigan
4.9%
95%
13
69
✓
MICH −26.1
–
–
Final
#21Michigan State@Minnesota
63%
37%
52
23
✓
MSU −5.9
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#12LSUUpset
18%
82%
21
19
✗
LSU −14.0
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#7Nebraska
0.6%
99%
0
38
✓
NEB −40.0
–
–
Final
Maryland@North Carolina
46%
54%
30
32
✓
UNC −0.9
–
–
Final
South Carolina@NC State
33%
67%
22
23
✓
NCSU −6.4
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Bowling GreenUpset
14%
86%
16
8
✗
BGSU −17.0
–
–
Final
#19Notre Dame@Navy
84%
16%
33
14
✓
ND −16.4
–
–
Final
#15Ohio State@#10Iowa
33%
67%
31
10
✗
IOWA −6.5
–
–
Final
#2Oklahoma@Kansas
99%
1.2%
64
3
✓
OU −36.3
–
–
Final
Oregon@California
39%
61%
27
9
✗
CAL −3.9
–
–
Final
#3Penn State@West Virginia
91%
8.8%
19
0
✓
PSU −22.0
–
–
Final
Purdue@Northwestern
38%
62%
17
16
✗
NU −4.2
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Louisville
77%
23%
41
0
✓
RUTG −12.1
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Colorado StateUpset
25%
75%
27
26
✗
CSU −10.5
–
–
Final
San Jose State@New Mexico State
92%
8.2%
45
7
✓
SJSU −22.6
–
–
Final
#24USC@#13Arizona
27%
73%
20
13
✗
ARIZ −9.3
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@East Carolina
68%
32%
23
21
✓
USM −7.9
–
–
Final
Washington State@Stanford
29%
71%
12
42
✓
STAN −8.2
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Syracuse
61%
39%
20
24
✗
PITT −4.8
–
–
Final
#16Texas A&M@SMU
55%
45%
39
35
✓
TA&M −2.5
–
–
Final
TCU@Houston
33%
67%
30
14
✗
HOU −6.7
–
–
Final
Texas@Texas Tech
37%
63%
21
23
✓
TTU −4.7
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Toledo
35%
65%
7
28
✓
TOL −5.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Tulane
59%
41%
39
42
✗
UL −4.1
–
–
Final
Wichita State@Tulsa
3.8%
96%
10
38
✓
TLSA −28.2
–
–
Final
#11UCLA@Oregon State
86%
14%
49
0
✓
UCLA −17.8
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Virginia Tech
42%
58%
15
17
✓
VT −2.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Wyoming
27%
73%
25
35
✓
WYO −9.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 1 · TBD Indiana State at Cincinnati Cincinnati −27.6 96%
Sat, Nov 1 · TBD Richmond at #17 Georgia Georgia −34.5 98%
Sat, Nov 1 · TBD North Texas at UNLV UNLV −0.3 52%
Sat, Nov 1 · TBD William & Mary at Virginia Virginia −23.5 93%