The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 1986

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 51

Wilder than 51% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 11.0 expected

  • Biggest shockWichita State over Tulane7.5% chance · won 21-20
  • Runner-upUC Davis over Pacific18% chance · won 45-41
  • Runner-upColorado State over BYU23% chance · won 24-20

Upsets

Thu, Oct 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Cal State Fullerton@Tulsa
4.5%
96%
10
20
✓
TLSA −28.2
–
–

Fri, Oct 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Air Force@Utah
77%
23%
45
35
✓
AF −12.3
–
–
Final
Colorado State@BYUUpset
23%
77%
24
20
✗
BYU −12.1
–
–

Sat, Oct 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 42 games

Final
#17Notre Dame@#6Alabama
28%
72%
10
28
✓
ALA −9.8
–
–
Final
#13Arizona State@#15UCLA
44%
56%
16
9
✗
UCLA −2.8
–
–
Final
TCU@#12Arkansas
10%
90%
17
34
✓
ARK −20.9
–
–
Final
Houston@#11Baylor
9.0%
91%
13
27
✓
BAY −22.3
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Bowling Green
21%
79%
3
17
✓
BGSU −13.6
–
–
Final
Louisville@Cincinnati
30%
70%
17
24
✓
CIN −8.8
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#18Georgia
25%
75%
10
14
✓
UGA −11.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Hawaii
28%
72%
10
27
✓
HAW −9.6
–
–
Final
Indiana@Northwestern
72%
28%
24
7
✓
IU −9.4
–
–
Final
#4Iowa@#22Michigan State
70%
30%
24
21
✓
IOWA −8.6
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Iowa State
56%
44%
10
21
✗
WYO −2.4
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Kent State
68%
32%
30
33
✗
CMU −7.5
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Kentucky
33%
67%
0
32
✓
UK −7.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana@East Carolina
60%
40%
21
10
✓
UL −3.9
–
–
Final
#25LSU@Florida
43%
57%
28
17
✗
FLA −3.2
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@#1Miami (FL)
0.1%
>99%
0
34
✓
MIA −53.5
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Ohio
90%
9.9%
34
14
✓
M-OH −21.3
–
–
Final
#10Michigan@Wisconsin
84%
16%
34
17
✓
MICH −16.1
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Purdue
45%
55%
36
9
✗
PUR −2.0
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Memphis
88%
12%
34
17
✓
MSST −19.5
–
–
Final
#3Nebraska@South Carolina
94%
6.2%
27
24
✓
NEB −25.4
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@North Carolina
37%
63%
20
21
✓
UNC −5.8
–
–
Final
Illinois@#21Ohio State
22%
78%
0
14
✓
OSU −13.0
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#2Oklahoma
0.1%
>99%
10
56
✓
OU −49.6
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#8Penn State
16%
84%
6
31
✓
PSU −16.5
–
–
Final
#20Fresno State@San Jose StateUpset
76%
24%
41
45
✗
FRES −11.6
–
–
Final
Oregon@#14USC
14%
86%
21
35
✓
USC −17.8
–
–
Final
Boston College@SMU
25%
75%
29
31
✓
SMU −11.5
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Stanford
25%
75%
10
17
✓
STAN −11.5
–
–
Final
Missouri@Syracuse
30%
70%
9
41
✓
SYR −8.6
–
–
Final
Temple@Pittsburgh
28%
72%
19
13
✗
PITT −9.9
–
–
Final
UTEP@Tennessee
12%
88%
16
26
✓
TENN −19.7
–
–
Final
Texas@Rice
87%
13%
17
14
✓
TEX −18.4
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#23Texas A&M
17%
83%
8
45
✓
TA&M −16.1
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Toledo
45%
55%
18
23
✓
TOL −2.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Utah State
21%
79%
9
42
✓
USU −13.4
–
–
Final
Duke@Vanderbilt
66%
34%
18
24
✗
DUKE −7.0
–
–
Final
Virginia@Wake Forest
28%
72%
30
28
✗
WAKE −9.8
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Virginia Tech
29%
71%
7
13
✓
VT −9.1
–
–
Final
California@#9Washington
6.9%
93%
18
50
✓
WASH −24.7
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Washington State
18%
82%
14
24
✓
WSU −15.5
–
–
Final
Wichita State@TulaneUpset
7.5%
92%
21
20
✗
TULN −24.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 4 · TBD Army at Yale Army −16.7 84%
Sat, Oct 4 · TBD Western Carolina at #5 Auburn Auburn −52.7 >99%
Sat, Oct 4 · TBD Indiana State at Ball State Ball State −22.9 92%
Sat, Oct 4 · TBD UC Davis at Pacific Pacific −15.1 82%
Sat, Oct 4 · TBD The Citadel at #24 Clemson Clemson −52.2 >99%
Sat, Oct 4 · TBD Southern Illinois at Kansas Kansas −17.9 86%
Sat, Oct 4 · TBD Dartmouth at Navy Navy −25.4 94%