The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 1986

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 48 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 82

Wilder than 82% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 12.1 expected

  • Biggest shockTexas Tech over Arkansas8.9% chance · won 17-7
  • Runner-upRice over TCU15% chance · won 37-31
  • Runner-upArmy over Tennessee17% chance · won 25-21

Upsets

Sat, Oct 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 46 games

Final
Navy@#24Air Force
26%
74%
6
40
✓
AF −10.7
–
–
Final
Memphis@#5Alabama
1.3%
99%
0
37
✓
ALA −37.0
–
–
Final
#11Arizona State@Oregon
77%
23%
37
17
✓
ASU −12.1
–
–
Final
Army@TennesseeUpset
17%
83%
25
21
✗
TENN −15.8
–
–
Final
#9Auburn@Vanderbilt
92%
8.3%
31
9
✓
AUB −22.9
–
–
Final
Ohio@Ball State
29%
71%
9
30
✓
BALL −9.4
–
–
Final
Boston College@#22MarylandUpset
21%
79%
30
25
✗
MD −13.5
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Bowling Green
28%
72%
10
24
✓
BGSU −9.6
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Western Michigan
75%
25%
18
10
✓
CMU −11.0
–
–
Final
Clemson@Virginia
60%
40%
31
17
✓
CLEM −3.9
–
–
Final
Colorado@Missouri
68%
32%
17
12
✓
COLO −7.9
–
–
Final
Kent State@Florida
14%
86%
9
52
✓
FLA −18.0
–
–
Final
Tulane@#18Florida State
5.5%
94%
21
54
✓
FSU −26.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Fresno State
1.0%
99%
14
17
✓
FRES −38.6
–
–
Final
NC State@Georgia Tech
48%
52%
21
59
✓
GT −1.1
–
–
Final
Purdue@Illinois
26%
74%
27
34
✓
ILL −10.7
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@#4Iowa
3.8%
96%
6
17
✓
IOWA −29.5
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Kansas
55%
45%
13
10
✓
ISU −2.0
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Cal State Fullerton
69%
31%
30
20
✓
Long Beach State −8.0
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Louisiana
40%
60%
13
17
✓
UL −4.2
–
–
Final
#23Georgia@#16LSU
36%
64%
14
23
✓
LSU −5.9
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@West Virginia
94%
6.5%
58
14
✓
MIA −25.0
–
–
Final
Toledo@#25Miami (OH)
8.8%
91%
8
24
✓
M-OH −22.6
–
–
Final
#21Michigan State@#10Michigan
30%
70%
6
27
✓
MICH −8.9
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Minnesota
21%
79%
23
44
✓
MINN −13.7
–
–
Final
#17Kentucky@Ole MissUpset
62%
38%
13
33
✗
UK −4.9
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#3Nebraska
4.4%
96%
10
30
✓
NEB −28.5
–
–
Final
UTEP@New Mexico
40%
60%
22
24
✓
UNM −4.1
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Wake Forest
45%
55%
40
30
✗
WAKE −2.4
–
–
Final
#19Ohio State@Indiana
49%
51%
24
22
✗
IU −0.7
–
–
Final
Texas@#2Oklahoma
3.8%
96%
12
47
✓
OU −29.5
–
–
Final
Oregon State@California
31%
69%
14
12
✗
CAL −8.4
–
–
Final
UNLV@Pacific
59%
41%
15
21
✗
UNLV −3.6
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#6Penn State
7.5%
92%
17
23
✓
PSU −23.9
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Notre Dame
35%
65%
10
9
✗
ND −6.6
–
–
Final
Rice@TCUUpset
15%
86%
37
31
✗
TCU −17.7
–
–
Final
Utah State@San Jose State
21%
79%
28
38
✓
SJSU −13.4
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@South Carolina
52%
48%
27
27
✓
VT −0.6
–
–
Final
SMU@#12BaylorUpset
25%
75%
27
21
✗
BAY −11.2
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Temple
11%
89%
28
45
✓
TEM −20.1
–
–
Final
#15Texas A&M@Houston
77%
23%
19
7
✓
TA&M −12.1
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#13ArkansasUpset
8.9%
91%
17
7
✗
ARK −22.4
–
–
Final
#8Arizona@#20UCLA
57%
43%
25
32
✗
ARIZ −2.9
–
–
Final
#7Washington@Stanford
70%
30%
24
14
✓
WASH −8.5
–
–
Final
#14USC@Washington StateUpset
69%
31%
14
34
✗
USC −8.0
–
–
Final
Utah@Wyoming
31%
69%
14
38
✓
WYO −8.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 11 · TBD Arkansas State at Mississippi State Mississippi State −8.3 69%
Sat, Oct 11 · TBD UCF at Wichita State UCF −7.4 67%