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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 1986

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 90

Wilder than 90% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 12.8 expected

  • Biggest shockMinnesota over Michigan5.2% chance · won 20-17
  • Runner-upOregon State over BYU10% chance · won 10-7
  • Runner-upNorthwestern over Michigan State13% chance · won 24-21

Upsets

Sat, Nov 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 47 games

Final
Temple@#9Alabama
11%
89%
14
24
✓
ALA −18.9
–
–
Final
Wichita State@#5Arizona State
0.1%
>99%
6
52
✓
ASU −50.7
–
–
Final
#17Texas A&M@#23Arkansas
48%
52%
10
14
✓
ARK −0.2
–
–
Final
#18Baylor@Rice
96%
4.2%
23
17
✓
BAY −28.0
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Boston College
28%
72%
9
27
✓
BC −9.0
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@PacificUpset
24%
76%
39
38
✗
Pacific −10.8
–
–
Final
Ball State@Central Michigan
46%
54%
22
43
✓
CMU −0.9
–
–
Final
Maryland@Clemson
35%
65%
17
17
✗
CLEM −5.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Colorado State
21%
79%
27
32
✓
CSU −12.2
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@East Carolina
65%
35%
19
32
✗
CIN −6.6
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#13Florida State
9.2%
91%
13
49
✓
FSU −20.8
–
–
Final
#24Georgia@#4AuburnUpset
18%
82%
20
16
✗
AUB −14.2
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Hawaii
51%
49%
13
24
✗
FRES −1.0
–
–
Final
Illinois@IndianaUpset
24%
76%
21
16
✗
IU −10.8
–
–
Final
Purdue@#16Iowa
5.0%
95%
14
42
✓
IOWA −26.0
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Iowa State
15%
86%
19
48
✓
ISU −16.5
–
–
Final
#19Florida@KentuckyUpset
63%
37%
3
10
✗
FLA −5.9
–
–
Final
#12LSU@Mississippi State
72%
28%
47
0
✓
LSU −9.6
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#1Miami (FL)
1.2%
99%
10
23
✓
MIA −36.1
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Miami (OH)
10%
90%
20
34
✓
M-OH −19.9
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#3MichiganUpset
5.2%
95%
20
17
✗
MICH −25.7
–
–
Final
#7Nebraska@Kansas
97%
3.3%
70
0
✓
NEB −29.8
–
–
Final
UNLV@New Mexico State
85%
15%
58
42
✓
UNLV −16.8
–
–
Final
Virginia@North Carolina
21%
78%
7
27
✓
UNC −12.1
–
–
Final
Duke@NC State
19%
81%
15
29
✓
NCSU −13.3
–
–
Final
#20Michigan State@NorthwesternUpset
87%
13%
21
24
✗
MSU −18.7
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Ohio
56%
44%
26
34
✗
NIU −2.8
–
–
Final
#11Ohio State@Wisconsin
85%
15%
30
17
✓
OSU −16.8
–
–
Final
#2Oklahoma@Colorado
89%
11%
28
0
✓
OU −20.0
–
–
Final
Washington State@Oregon
48%
52%
17
27
✓
ORE −0.4
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#25BYUUpset
10%
90%
10
7
✗
BYU −19.9
–
–
Final
#6Penn State@#14Notre Dame
55%
45%
24
19
✓
PSU −2.6
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Pittsburgh
34%
66%
6
20
✓
PITT −6.0
–
–
Final
Wyoming@San Diego State
46%
54%
24
31
✓
SDSU −1.1
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@San Jose State
19%
81%
14
38
✓
SJSU −13.5
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@South Carolina
40%
60%
21
48
✓
SC −3.7
–
–
Final
California@#21USC
6.2%
94%
3
28
✓
USC −24.2
–
–
Final
SMU@Texas Tech
48%
52%
13
7
✗
TTU −0.4
–
–
Final
Tennessee@Ole Miss
34%
66%
22
10
✗
MISS −5.9
–
–
Final
Texas@TCU
61%
39%
45
16
✓
TEX −5.1
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Toledo
43%
57%
3
22
✓
TOL −2.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@Tulane
31%
69%
6
15
✓
TULN −7.4
–
–
Final
#8Washington@#10UCLA
47%
53%
17
17
✗
UCLA −0.6
–
–
Final
Utah@Utah State
59%
41%
27
10
✓
UTAH −4.0
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Virginia Tech
12%
88%
21
29
✓
VT −17.9
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Louisville
67%
33%
42
19
✓
WVU −7.4
–
–
Final
Kent State@Western Michigan
43%
57%
7
27
✓
WMU −2.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 15 · TBD Lafayette at Army Army −22.7 92%
Sat, Nov 15 · TBD Delaware at Navy Delaware −11.1 75%
Sat, Nov 15 · TBD Louisiana at McNeese Louisiana −9.7 72%