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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 1986

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 24

Wilder than 24% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 12.1 expected

  • Biggest shockColorado over Nebraska19% chance · won 20-10
  • Runner-upSyracuse over Temple22% chance · won 27-24
  • Runner-upTulane over Southern Miss28% chance · won 35-20

Upsets

Sat, Oct 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 48 games

Final
#25Air Force@San Diego State
63%
37%
22
10
✓
AF −5.8
–
–
Final
California@#11Arizona
5.5%
94%
16
33
✓
ARIZ −25.2
–
–
Final
Utah@#10Arizona State
3.6%
96%
7
52
✓
ASU −28.6
–
–
Final
#21Arkansas@Houston
71%
29%
30
13
✓
ARK −9.5
–
–
Final
#9Auburn@Mississippi State
67%
33%
35
6
✓
AUB −7.3
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Ball State
33%
67%
10
24
✓
BALL −6.6
–
–
Final
#17Baylor@TCU
84%
16%
28
17
✓
BAY −16.0
–
–
Final
Boston College@West Virginia
61%
39%
19
10
✓
BC −5.0
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Kent State
56%
44%
31
15
✓
BGSU −2.8
–
–
Final
UTEP@#24BYU
9.3%
91%
13
37
✓
BYU −20.8
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Wichita State
89%
11%
24
19
✓
CIN −19.8
–
–
Final
#3Nebraska@ColoradoUpset
81%
19%
10
20
✗
NEB −14.5
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Colorado State
28%
72%
15
20
✓
CSU −8.8
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Eastern Michigan
59%
41%
16
34
✗
CMU −4.2
–
–
Final
#16Florida State@Louisville
89%
11%
54
18
✓
FSU −19.9
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Fresno State
18%
82%
12
25
✓
FRES −14.3
–
–
Final
#22Georgia@Kentucky
48%
52%
31
9
✗
UK −0.4
–
–
Final
Tennessee@Georgia Tech
32%
68%
13
14
✓
GT −7.1
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Hawaii
6.5%
94%
15
26
✓
HAW −23.8
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#6Iowa
1.9%
98%
20
27
✓
IOWA −33.0
–
–
Final
North Carolina@#13LSU
21%
79%
3
30
✓
LSU −12.6
–
–
Final
Maryland@Duke
67%
33%
27
19
✓
MD −7.6
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Northern Illinois
89%
11%
20
6
✓
M-OH −19.7
–
–
Final
#7Michigan@Indiana
70%
30%
38
14
✓
MICH −8.9
–
–
Final
Purdue@#23Michigan State
8.8%
91%
3
37
✓
MSU −21.2
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Vanderbilt
77%
23%
28
12
✓
MISS −12.0
–
–
Final
Missouri@Kansas State
52%
48%
17
6
✓
MIZ −1.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@New Mexico
7.7%
92%
14
45
✓
UNM −22.4
–
–
Final
#20Clemson@NC StateUpset
63%
37%
3
27
✗
CLEM −5.9
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#15Ohio State
21%
79%
0
33
✓
OSU −12.5
–
–
Final
#2Oklahoma@Iowa State
96%
4.3%
38
0
✓
OU −27.8
–
–
Final
Kansas@Oklahoma State
18%
82%
6
24
✓
OKST −14.2
–
–
Final
#8Penn State@#4Alabama
34%
66%
23
3
✗
ALA −6.2
–
–
Final
Navy@Pittsburgh
16%
84%
14
56
✓
PITT −15.2
–
–
Final
Army@Rutgers
21%
79%
7
35
✓
RUTG −12.3
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Pacific
55%
45%
44
15
✓
SJSU −2.3
–
–
Final
East Carolina@South Carolina
16%
84%
3
38
✓
SC −15.8
–
–
Final
USC@Stanford
39%
61%
10
0
✗
STAN −4.0
–
–
Final
Syracuse@TempleUpset
22%
78%
27
24
✗
TEM −12.0
–
–
Final
SMU@Texas
64%
36%
24
27
✗
SMU −6.1
–
–
Final
Rice@#14Texas A&M
1.7%
98%
10
45
✓
TA&M −33.9
–
–
Final
Toledo@Ohio
57%
43%
24
21
✓
TOL −3.4
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Tulane
72%
28%
20
35
✗
USM −9.8
–
–
Final
Washington State@#12UCLA
19%
81%
16
54
✓
UCLA −13.7
–
–
Final
UNLV@Utah State
68%
32%
6
7
✗
UNLV −8.1
–
–
Final
Virginia@Virginia Tech
31%
68%
10
42
✓
VT −7.2
–
–
Final
Oregon@#5Washington
3.3%
97%
3
38
✓
WASH −29.2
–
–
Final
Illinois@Wisconsin
42%
58%
9
15
✓
WIS −2.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 25 · TBD Stephen F. Austin at Louisiana Louisiana −24.1 94%
Sat, Oct 25 · TBD Boise State at Oregon State Boise State −1.7 53%