The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 1986

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 75

Wilder than 75% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 13.9 expected

  • Biggest shockSan Jose State over Washington State7.5% chance · won 20-13
  • Runner-upMississippi State over Tennessee20% chance · won 27-23
  • Runner-upNorthern Iowa over Kansas State20% chance · won 17-0

Upsets

Sat, Sep 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 40 games

Final
Southern Miss@#5Alabama
17%
83%
17
31
✓
ALA −14.1
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#10Arizona
22%
78%
10
37
✓
ARIZ −11.6
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Arizona State
32%
68%
17
20
✓
ASU −6.7
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#23Arkansas
33%
67%
0
21
✓
ARK −6.4
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Army
41%
59%
28
33
✓
ARMY −3.1
–
–
Final
California@Boston College
39%
61%
15
21
✓
BC −3.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico@#4BYU
4.3%
96%
30
31
✓
BYU −26.5
–
–
Final
#21Miami (OH)@CincinnatiUpset
57%
43%
38
45
✗
M-OH −3.2
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#22Fresno State
11%
89%
0
27
✓
FRES −18.3
–
–
Final
Duke@#24Georgia
24%
76%
7
31
✓
UGA −10.6
–
–
Final
Louisville@Indiana
16%
84%
0
21
✓
IU −15.3
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#18Iowa
11%
89%
7
43
✓
IOWA −18.6
–
–
Final
#20Texas A&M@LSUUpset
44%
56%
17
35
✓
LSU −2.0
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#8Maryland
6.0%
94%
21
35
✓
MD −23.8
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#1Miami (FL)
4.6%
95%
11
61
✓
MIA −25.8
–
–
Final
#14Michigan@Notre Dame
54%
46%
24
23
✓
MICH −2.3
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Minnesota
45%
55%
7
31
✓
MINN −1.4
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#7TennesseeUpset
20%
80%
27
23
✗
TENN −12.6
–
–
Final
Utah State@Missouri
20%
80%
10
24
✓
MIZ −12.6
–
–
Final
Virginia@Navy
48%
52%
10
20
✓
NAVY −0.2
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Kansas
38%
62%
20
0
✗
KU −4.2
–
–
Final
Colorado@Oregon
29%
71%
30
32
✓
ORE −8.1
–
–
Final
NC State@Pittsburgh
29%
71%
14
14
✗
PITT −7.9
–
–
Final
Ball State@Purdue
16%
84%
3
20
✓
PUR −14.7
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Rutgers
42%
58%
16
16
✗
RUTG −2.5
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Utah
31%
69%
37
30
✗
UTAH −7.2
–
–
Final
San Jose State@#25Washington StateUpset
7.5%
92%
20
13
✗
WSU −22.0
–
–
Final
Illinois@USC
45%
55%
16
31
✓
USC −1.5
–
–
Final
SMU@Rice
74%
26%
45
3
✓
SMU −10.5
–
–
Final
Stanford@Texas
28%
72%
31
20
✗
TEX −8.7
–
–
Final
Temple@Western Michigan
47%
53%
49
17
✗
WMU −0.5
–
–
Final
TCU@Tulane
36%
64%
48
31
✗
TULN −5.1
–
–
Final
UTEP@New Mexico State
78%
22%
47
33
✓
UTEP −12.2
–
–
Final
Wichita State@Toledo
4.1%
96%
13
30
✓
TOL −26.7
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Tulsa
64%
36%
23
27
✗
OKST −5.8
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Clemson
32%
68%
20
14
✗
CLEM −6.7
–
–
Final
#12Ohio State@WashingtonUpset
60%
40%
7
40
✗
OSU −4.5
–
–
Final
#17West Virginia@East Carolina
80%
20%
24
21
✓
WVU −13.7
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Wisconsin
11%
89%
20
35
✓
WIS −19.0
–
–
Final
Pacific@Wyoming
13%
87%
20
23
✓
WYO −17.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Akron at Kent State Akron −2.2 54%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Arkansas State at Memphis Memphis −0.9 54%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Louisiana Tech at #16 Baylor Baylor −18.4 89%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Idaho State at Cal State Fullerton Cal State Fullerton −2.7 58%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Idaho at Central Michigan Central Michigan −29.6 97%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Eastern Michigan at Youngstown State Eastern Michigan −9.6 72%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Georgia Tech at Furman Georgia Tech −14.3 82%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Louisiana-Monroe at Louisiana Louisiana-Monroe −7.7 68%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Marshall at Ohio Ohio −2.0 56%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Portland State at UNLV UNLV −18.4 89%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Northern Iowa at Kansas State Kansas State −12.5 80%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Western Carolina at South Carolina South Carolina −25.0 95%
Sat, Sep 13 · TBD Boston University at Wake Forest Wake Forest −29.0 97%