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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 1986

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 40 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 1

Chaos 3

Wilder than 3% of weeks in the archive.

6 upsets against 10.9 expected

  • Biggest shockCincinnati over Virginia Tech32% chance · won 24-20
  • Runner-upColorado State over Colorado32% chance · won 23-7
  • Runner-upRutgers over Boston College35% chance · won 11-9

Sat, Sep 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 31 games

Final
#2Air Force@UTEP
86%
14%
23
21
✓
AF −17.2
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#3Alabama
11%
89%
10
42
✓
ALA −18.6
–
–
Final
Houston@#24Arizona
25%
75%
3
37
✓
ARIZ −9.8
–
–
Final
#20Baylor@Wyoming
71%
29%
31
28
✓
BAY −8.9
–
–
Final
Ohio@Bowling Green
17%
83%
16
21
✓
BGSU −14.0
–
–
Final
Utah State@#12BYU
11%
89%
0
52
✓
BYU −18.8
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Virginia Tech
31%
68%
24
20
✗
VT −6.9
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Colorado
32%
68%
23
7
✗
COLO −6.5
–
–
Final
Duke@Northwestern
50%
50%
17
6
✗
DUKE −0.4
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Eastern Michigan
48%
52%
14
21
✓
EMU −0.1
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Hawaii
36%
64%
17
20
✓
HAW −5.0
–
–
Final
Louisville@Illinois
15%
85%
0
23
✓
ILL −15.3
–
–
Final
Toledo@Kent State
35%
65%
16
18
✓
KENT −5.3
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@#4Florida
70%
30%
23
15
✓
MIA −8.8
–
–
Final
Ball State@Miami (OH)
29%
71%
7
45
✓
M-OH −7.9
–
–
Final
Memphis@Ole Miss
40%
60%
6
28
✓
MISS −3.6
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Syracuse
35%
65%
24
17
✗
SYR −5.5
–
–
Final
#5Florida State@#10Nebraska
46%
54%
17
34
✓
NEB −1.0
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@New Mexico State
31%
70%
21
24
✓
NMSU −7.4
–
–
Final
East Carolina@NC State
44%
56%
10
38
✓
NCSU −1.9
–
–
Final
#14UCLA@#8Oklahoma
35%
65%
3
38
✓
OU −5.5
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Louisiana
69%
31%
21
20
✓
OKST −8.2
–
–
Final
Oregon@San Jose State
65%
35%
21
14
✓
ORE −6.5
–
–
Final
Temple@#18Penn State
29%
71%
15
45
✓
PSU −7.9
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Boston College
35%
65%
11
9
✗
BC −5.5
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@San Diego State
12%
88%
24
27
✓
SDSU −17.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico@#11Tennessee
13%
87%
21
35
✓
TENN −17.2
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Texas Tech
20%
80%
7
41
✓
TTU −12.3
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Virginia
35%
65%
20
30
✓
UVA −5.6
–
–
Final
UNLV@Washington State
27%
73%
14
34
✓
WSU −9.0
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@West Virginia
17%
83%
14
47
✓
WVU −14.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD Chattanooga at #15 Auburn Auburn −29.5 97%
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD Montana State at Fresno State Fresno State −33.7 98%
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD The Citadel at North Carolina North Carolina −31.1 98%
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD Sacramento State at Pacific Pacific −1.6 56%
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD Lamar at Rice Rice −24.4 94%
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD Louisiana-Monroe at Southern Miss Southern Miss −1.7 56%
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD Tennessee Tech at Tulsa Tulsa −25.6 95%
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD Appalachian State at Wake Forest Wake Forest −4.1 62%
Sat, Sep 6 · TBD San Francisco State at Wichita State San Francisco State −3.0 56%