The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 1986

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 70

Wilder than 70% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 12.2 expected

  • Biggest shockWestern Illinois over Northern Illinois9.6% chance · won 10-0
  • Runner-upPacific over Minnesota13% chance · won 24-20
  • Runner-upNC State over Maryland14% chance · won 28-16

Upsets

Sat, Sep 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 43 games

Final
Colorado State@Air Force
30%
70%
7
24
✓
AF −8.8
–
–
Final
#4Arizona@Colorado
85%
15%
24
21
✓
ARIZ −16.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@#14Arkansas
0.4%
>99%
11
42
✓
ARK −44.6
–
–
Final
#15Tennessee@#11Auburn
35%
65%
8
34
✓
AUB −6.4
–
–
Final
Toledo@Ball State
50%
50%
10
27
✗
PK
–
–
Final
#17Baylor@Texas Tech
66%
34%
45
14
✓
BAY −7.0
–
–
Final
Temple@#21BYU
29%
71%
17
27
✓
BYU −9.5
–
–
Final
Ohio@Central Michigan
17%
83%
27
56
✓
CMU −15.7
–
–
Final
Clemson@Georgia Tech
37%
63%
27
3
✗
GT −5.5
–
–
Final
Virginia@Duke
45%
55%
13
20
✓
DUKE −2.1
–
–
Final
#18Georgia@South Carolina
74%
26%
31
26
✓
UGA −10.5
–
–
Final
Indiana@Missouri
62%
38%
41
24
✓
IU −5.0
–
–
Final
UTEP@#5Iowa
4.0%
96%
7
69
✓
IOWA −29.2
–
–
Final
Wichita State@Iowa State
4.5%
96%
14
36
✓
ISU −28.3
–
–
Final
Kent State@Eastern Michigan
36%
64%
20
16
✗
EMU −6.2
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Cincinnati
58%
42%
37
20
✓
UK −3.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@Louisville
43%
57%
8
34
✓
LOU −3.0
–
–
Final
#1Oklahoma@#2Miami (FL)
43%
57%
16
28
✓
MIA −3.1
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@#25Miami (OH)
20%
80%
7
24
✓
M-OH −14.2
–
–
Final
#16Florida State@#9Michigan
31%
69%
18
20
✓
MICH −8.1
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Michigan State
7.3%
93%
10
45
✓
MSU −24.2
–
–
Final
Tulane@Ole Miss
23%
77%
10
35
✓
MISS −12.2
–
–
Final
#19Florida@Mississippi StateUpset
49%
51%
10
16
✓
MSST −0.3
–
–
Final
Oregon@#3Nebraska
4.3%
96%
14
48
✓
NEB −28.5
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@UNLV
5.4%
95%
23
40
✓
UNLV −26.8
–
–
Final
NC State@#10MarylandUpset
14%
86%
28
16
✗
MD −17.9
–
–
Final
Purdue@Notre Dame
26%
74%
9
41
✓
ND −11.0
–
–
Final
Utah@Ohio State
30%
70%
6
64
✓
OSU −9.0
–
–
Final
Pacific@MinnesotaUpset
13%
87%
24
20
✗
MINN −19.0
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#8Penn State
2.4%
98%
17
42
✓
PSU −32.8
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Pittsburgh
35%
65%
16
48
✓
PITT −6.5
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Syracuse
47%
53%
16
10
✗
SYR −1.2
–
–
Final
San Diego State@New Mexico
44%
56%
38
34
✗
UNM −2.6
–
–
Final
San Jose State@CaliforniaUpset
22%
78%
35
14
✗
CAL −13.0
–
–
Final
#6Washington@#20USC
62%
38%
10
20
✗
WASH −5.1
–
–
Final
TCU@SMU
20%
80%
21
31
✓
SMU −14.0
–
–
Final
Stanford@Oregon State
78%
22%
17
7
✓
STAN −12.7
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#22Texas A&M
34%
66%
7
16
✓
TA&M −7.2
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Houston
33%
67%
24
14
✗
HOU −7.5
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@#12UCLA
2.7%
97%
23
41
✓
UCLA −32.1
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Army
36%
64%
49
14
✗
ARMY −6.0
–
–
Final
#13Arizona State@Washington State
75%
25%
21
21
✓
ASU −11.3
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Wisconsin
39%
61%
21
12
✗
WIS −4.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 27 · TBD Louisiana Tech at #23 Fresno State Fresno State −20.8 89%
Sat, Sep 27 · TBD Indiana State at Kansas Kansas −27.9 95%
Sat, Sep 27 · TBD Lehigh at Navy Navy −23.5 92%
Sat, Sep 27 · TBD Northwestern at Princeton Northwestern −9.7 72%
Sat, Sep 27 · TBD Illinois State at Oklahoma State Oklahoma State −26.5 94%
Sat, Sep 27 · TBD East Tennessee State at Virginia Tech Virginia Tech −35.1 98%
Sat, Sep 27 · TBD Western Illinois at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −21.7 90%