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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 1986

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 90

Wilder than 90% of weeks in the archive.

21 upsets against 16.7 expected

  • Biggest shockWyoming over Air Force9.1% chance · won 23-17
  • Runner-upClemson over Georgia18% chance · won 31-28
  • Runner-upHouston over Oklahoma State21% chance · won 28-12

Upsets

Sat, Sep 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 44 games

Final
#8Alabama@#13Florida
46%
54%
21
7
✗
FLA −1.6
–
–
Final
#7Arizona@Oregon
70%
30%
41
17
✓
ARIZ −8.7
–
–
Final
#9SMU@#23Arizona State
53%
47%
0
30
✗
SMU −1.3
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#10Arkansas
11%
89%
17
34
✓
ARK −20.5
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#20Auburn
8.5%
92%
0
45
✓
AUB −22.9
–
–
Final
Washington State@California
47%
53%
21
31
✓
CAL −1.4
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Central Michigan
47%
53%
10
20
✓
CMU −1.2
–
–
Final
Clemson@#12GeorgiaUpset
18%
82%
31
28
✗
UGA −15.1
–
–
Final
Ohio@Duke
22%
78%
7
22
✓
DUKE −12.7
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Virginia
44%
56%
28
14
✗
UVA −2.7
–
–
Final
UTEP@Hawaii
27%
73%
21
31
✓
HAW −10.5
–
–
Final
Houston@Oklahoma StateUpset
21%
79%
28
12
✗
OKST −13.4
–
–
Final
Navy@Indiana
55%
45%
29
52
✗
NAVY −2.2
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@#5Iowa
2.6%
97%
3
57
✓
IOWA −32.4
–
–
Final
Utah State@Kansas
21%
79%
13
16
✓
KU −13.6
–
–
Final
Kent State@Kentucky
19%
80%
12
37
✓
UK −14.4
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Western Michigan
34%
66%
14
13
✗
WMU −6.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Memphis
47%
53%
26
10
✗
MEM −1.4
–
–
Final
#19Maryland@West Virginia
51%
49%
24
3
✓
MD −0.3
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@#15LSUUpset
26%
74%
21
12
✗
LSU −10.8
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#4Michigan
3.0%
97%
12
31
✓
MICH −31.4
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@Michigan State
45%
55%
15
20
✓
MSU −2.0
–
–
Final
#3Nebraska@Illinois
74%
26%
59
14
✓
NEB −10.5
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@UNLV
59%
41%
7
17
✗
WIS −3.9
–
–
Final
#21Florida State@North Carolina
54%
46%
10
10
✓
FSU −1.6
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@NC State
34%
66%
38
42
✓
NCSU −6.8
–
–
Final
Army@Northwestern
75%
25%
18
25
✗
ARMY −11.0
–
–
Final
Colorado@Ohio State
27%
73%
10
13
✓
OSU −10.2
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#2Oklahoma
14%
86%
0
63
✓
OU −18.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Pacific
26%
74%
14
41
✓
Pacific −10.6
–
–
Final
#6Penn State@Boston College
78%
22%
26
14
✓
PSU −12.4
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Purdue
35%
65%
41
26
✗
PUR −6.5
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Rutgers
49%
51%
28
48
✓
RUTG −0.6
–
–
Final
#24USC@#18Baylor
34%
66%
17
14
✗
BAY −6.9
–
–
Final
#25Mississippi State@Southern MissUpset
51%
49%
24
28
✗
MSST −0.2
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Stanford
20%
80%
10
28
✓
STAN −14.0
–
–
Final
Texas@Missouri
54%
46%
27
25
✓
TEX −1.4
–
–
Final
Kansas State@TCU
12%
88%
22
35
✓
TCU −19.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Texas Tech
36%
64%
7
14
✓
TTU −5.9
–
–
Final
Tulane@Vanderbilt
29%
71%
35
17
✗
VAN −9.3
–
–
Final
UCLA@San Diego State
54%
46%
45
14
✓
UCLA −1.6
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Syracuse
40%
60%
26
17
✗
SYR −4.2
–
–
Final
#11BYU@#14Washington
43%
57%
21
52
✓
WASH −3.1
–
–
Final
Wyoming@#16Air ForceUpset
9.1%
91%
23
17
✗
AF −22.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 20 · TBD Ole Miss at Arkansas State Arkansas State −7.1 66%
Sat, Sep 20 · TBD Northern Colorado at Colorado State Colorado State −26.1 94%
Sat, Sep 20 · TBD Akron at Eastern Michigan Akron −8.0 69%
Sat, Sep 20 · TBD Cal State Fullerton at Idaho Cal State Fullerton −3.4 58%
Sat, Sep 20 · TBD Indiana State at Iowa State Iowa State −10.9 74%
Sat, Sep 20 · TBD Western Kentucky at Louisville Western Kentucky −1.1 53%
Sat, Sep 20 · TBD Morehead State at Wichita State Morehead State −3.0 57%
Sat, Sep 20 · TBD Florida A&M at Temple Temple −29.5 96%
Sat, Sep 20 · TBD North Texas at Texas A&M Texas A&M −14.0 80%
Sat, Sep 20 · TBD Texas State at Rice Texas State −1.4 54%