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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 1986

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 94

Wilder than 94% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 11.6 expected

  • Biggest shockKent State over Miami (OH)14% chance · won 24-23
  • Runner-upIllinois over Iowa17% chance · won 20-16
  • Runner-upArmy over Air Force18% chance · won 21-11

Upsets

Sat, Nov 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 46 games

Final
#15Arizona@Washington State
72%
28%
31
6
✓
ARIZ −9.6
–
–
Final
California@#7Arizona State
2.2%
98%
0
49
✓
ASU −31.9
–
–
Final
Air Force@ArmyUpset
82%
18%
11
21
✗
AF −14.8
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#9Auburn
5.2%
95%
7
52
✓
AUB −25.6
–
–
Final
#21Arkansas@#19Baylor
40%
60%
14
29
✓
BAY −3.8
–
–
Final
Boston College@Temple
39%
61%
38
29
✗
TEM −4.0
–
–
Final
Ball State@Bowling Green
37%
63%
17
20
✓
BGSU −5.0
–
–
Final
#25BYU@Hawaii
64%
36%
10
3
✓
BYU −6.0
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Clemson
31%
69%
10
38
✓
CLEM −7.4
–
–
Final
Kansas@Colorado
5.8%
94%
10
17
✓
COLO −24.8
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Duke
63%
37%
36
38
✗
WAKE −5.9
–
–
Final
#23Georgia@#20Florida
38%
62%
19
31
✓
FLA −4.3
–
–
Final
#14Florida State@South Carolina
72%
28%
45
28
✓
FSU −9.9
–
–
Final
Fresno State@UNLV
62%
38%
36
7
✓
FRES −5.2
–
–
Final
#12Iowa@IllinoisUpset
83%
17%
16
20
✗
IOWA −15.9
–
–
Final
Indiana@#16Michigan StateUpset
21%
79%
17
14
✗
MSU −12.3
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Kent StateUpset
86%
14%
23
24
✗
M-OH −17.8
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Kentucky
11%
89%
22
34
✓
UK −19.6
–
–
Final
#13LSU@#5Alabama
27%
73%
14
10
✗
ALA −9.4
–
–
Final
Louisville@Tulane
28%
72%
23
12
✗
TULN −8.8
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@Pittsburgh
89%
11%
37
10
✓
MIA −20.2
–
–
Final
#3Michigan@Purdue
96%
4.0%
31
7
✓
MICH −28.4
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Wisconsin
46%
54%
27
20
✗
WIS −1.2
–
–
Final
#8Nebraska@Iowa State
90%
10%
35
14
✓
NEB −20.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Northern Illinois
56%
44%
14
21
✗
EMU −2.8
–
–
Final
SMU@#18Notre Dame
27%
73%
29
61
✓
ND −9.2
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#11Ohio State
2.9%
97%
9
30
✓
OSU −30.0
–
–
Final
Missouri@#2Oklahoma
0.3%
>99%
0
77
✓
OU −43.6
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Kansas State
76%
24%
23
3
✓
OKST −11.6
–
–
Final
Maryland@#4Penn State
10%
90%
15
17
✓
PSU −19.7
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Cal State Fullerton
85%
15%
48
24
✓
SJSU −17.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Southern Miss
41%
59%
0
17
✓
USM −3.2
–
–
Final
#24Stanford@#10UCLAUpset
21%
79%
28
23
✗
UCLA −12.6
–
–
Final
Navy@Syracuse
19%
81%
22
31
✓
SYR −13.5
–
–
Final
Memphis@Tennessee
10%
90%
3
33
✓
TENN −20.0
–
–
Final
Houston@Texas
27%
73%
10
30
✓
TEX −9.5
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@TCU
54%
46%
36
14
✓
TTU −2.2
–
–
Final
Toledo@Central Michigan
41%
59%
26
14
✗
CMU −3.1
–
–
Final
Tulsa@New Mexico
56%
44%
34
27
✓
TLSA −3.0
–
–
Final
Colorado State@UtahUpset
77%
23%
28
38
✗
CSU −12.1
–
–
Final
Utah State@Pacific
29%
71%
14
10
✗
Pacific −8.2
–
–
Final
NC State@Virginia
70%
30%
16
20
✗
NCSU −8.7
–
–
Final
#6Washington@Oregon State
94%
6.5%
28
12
✓
WASH −24.6
–
–
Final
West Virginia@RutgersUpset
19%
81%
24
17
✗
RUTG −13.7
–
–
Final
Ohio@Western Michigan
30%
70%
17
45
✓
WMU −7.7
–
–
Final
UTEP@Wyoming
21%
79%
12
41
✓
WYO −12.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 8 · TBD VMI at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −38.8 99%
Sat, Nov 8 · TBD Illinois State at Wichita State Wichita State −8.0 70%
Sat, Nov 8 · TBD Eastern Washington at Long Beach State Long Beach State −16.2 85%
Sat, Nov 8 · TBD Virginia Tech at Richmond Virginia Tech −21.0 90%