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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 1 slate, 1978

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 10 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

3 upsets against 2.6 expected

  • Biggest shockNorthern Michigan over Eastern Michigan12% chance · won 30-3
  • Runner-upDrake over Texas-Arlington29% chance · won 25-23
  • Runner-upTulsa over Arkansas State44% chance · won 21-20

Fri, Sep 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#6Penn State@Temple
66%
34%
10
7
✓
PSU −6.7
–
–

Sat, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 7 games

Final
#20Nebraska@#3Alabama
29%
71%
3
20
✓
ALA −7.9
–
–
Final
Texas-Arlington@Drake
71%
29%
23
25
✗
Texas-Arlington −9.1
–
–
Final
#25East Carolina@Western Carolina
63%
37%
14
6
✓
ECU −5.7
–
–
Final
West Texas@Mississippi State
30%
70%
0
28
✓
MSST −7.8
–
–
Final
UTEP@#19North Texas
8.9%
91%
0
49
✓
UNT −20.5
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Richmond
79%
21%
10
7
✓
USM −12.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Tulsa
56%
44%
20
21
✗
ARST −2.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 2 · TBD Eastern Michigan at Northern Michigan Eastern Michigan −18.6 88%
Sun, Sep 3 · TBD Idaho State at Utah State Utah State −15.0 84%