Week 7 slate, 1978

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 70 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

26 upsets against 19.9 expected

Biggest shockMichigan State over Michigan13% chance · won 24-15
Runner-upLong Beach State over Utah State15% chance · won 33-17
Runner-upDartmouth over Yale18% chance · won 10-3

Upsets

Yale 3, Dartmouth 10Dartmouth won; the model gave them 18% before kickoff
Texas A&M 0, Houston 33Houston won; the model gave them 23% before kickoff
Long Beach State 33, Utah State 17Long Beach State won; the model gave them 15% before kickoff
Ball State 7, Louisiana Tech 17#13 Ball State lost to unranked Louisiana Tech
Michigan State 24, Michigan 15Michigan State won; the model gave them 13% before kickoff
Florida State 27, Mississippi State 55#16 Florida State lost to unranked Mississippi State
Colorado 20, Oklahoma State 24Oklahoma State won; the model gave them 23% before kickoff
Pacific 27, Fresno State 7Pacific won; the model gave them 20% before kickoff
Ohio State 16, Purdue 27#19 Ohio State lost to unranked Purdue
East Carolina 16, Southern Miss 17#21 East Carolina lost to unranked Southern Miss
Washington State 31, UCLA 45#24 Washington State lost to unranked UCLA

Sat, Oct 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 60 games

Final

Florida@

#6Alabama

12%
88%

12
23

✓

ALA −19.3

–

Final

#7USC@

#18Arizona State

61%
39%

7
20

✗

USC −4.7

–

Final

Arkansas State@Southern Illinois

67%
33%

26
24

✓

ARST −7.4

–

Final

Auburn@

Vanderbilt

83%
17%

49
7

✓

AUB −15.9

–

Final

Kent State@

Bowling Green

14%
86%

20
28

✓

BGSU −17.8

–

Final

BYU@

Oregon

84%
16%

17
16

✓

BYU −16.6

–

Final

Pennsylvania@Brown

39%
61%

0
14

✓

Brown −4.6

–

Final

California@

Arizona

45%
55%

33
20

✗

ARIZ −2.0

–

Final

Illinois State@

Central Michigan

1.2%
99%

7
45

✓

CMU −37.6

–

Final

#12Clemson@

Virginia

94%
6.0%

30
14

✓

CLEM −25.6

–

Final

Colgate@Villanova

32%
68%

20
14

✗

Villanova −7.9

–

Final

Colorado State@

Air Force

63%
37%

31
13

✓

CSU −5.6

–

Final

Princeton@Columbia

38%
62%

10
14

✓

Columbia −5.0

–

Final

Cornell@Harvard

41%
59%

25
20

✗

Harvard −3.8

–

Final

Yale@DartmouthUpset

82%
18%

3
10

✗

Yale −15.0

–

Final

Georgia@

LSU

39%
61%

24
17

✗

LSU −4.7

–

Final

Miami (FL)@

Georgia Tech

46%
54%

19
24

✓

GT −2.0

–

Final

Holy Cross@

Army

41%
59%

31
0

✗

ARMY −3.9

–

Final

#5Texas A&M@

HoustonUpset

77%
23%

0
33

✗

TA&M −12.4

–

Final

Northwestern@

Indiana

12%
88%

10
38

✓

IU −19.6

–

Final

Drake@Indiana State

49%
51%

0
13

✓

Indiana State −0.4

–

Final

Kentucky@

Ole Miss

67%
33%

24
17

✓

UK −7.1

–

Final

Long Beach State@

Utah StateUpset

15%
85%

33
17

✗

USU −17.3

–

Final

#13Ball State@

Louisiana TechUpset

70%
30%

7
17

✗

BALL −8.7

–

Final

#11Maryland@

Syracuse

89%
11%

24
9

✓

MD −20.5

–

Final

Louisiana-Monroe@McNeese

39%
61%

10
31

✓

McNeese −4.9

–

Final

Wichita State@

Memphis

28%
72%

13
26

✓

MEM −10.0

–

Final

Miami (OH)@

Marshall

82%
18%

29
3

✓

M-OH −15.3

–

Final

Michigan State@

#4MichiganUpset

13%
87%

24
15

✗

MICH −18.5

–

Final

Iowa@

Minnesota

30%
70%

20
22

✓

MINN −9.0

–

Final

#16Florida State@

Mississippi StateUpset

59%
41%

27
55

✗

FSU −3.5

–

Final

Iowa State@

#20Missouri

37%
63%

13
26

✓

MIZ −5.7

–

Final

Duke@

#14Navy

20%
80%

8
31

✓

NAVY −14.1

–

Final

Kansas State@

#3Nebraska

2.6%
97%

14
48

✓

NEB −32.2

–

Final

Hawaii@

UNLV

60%
40%

20
30

✗

HAW −3.9

–

Final

Tulsa@

New Mexico State

62%
38%

20
23

✗

TLSA −5.1

–

Final

#22North Carolina@

Wake Forest

84%
16%

34
29

✓

UNC −16.7

–

Final

#8Pittsburgh@

#15Notre Dame

58%
42%

17
26

✗

PITT −3.1

–

Final

#1Oklahoma@

Kansas

97%
2.9%

17
16

✓

OU −31.4

–

Final

#25Colorado@

Oklahoma StateUpset

77%
23%

20
24

✗

COLO −12.3

–

Final

Pacific@

Fresno StateUpset

20%
80%

27
7

✗

FRES −13.7

–

Final

#19Ohio State@

PurdueUpset

61%
39%

16
27

✗

OSU −4.6

–

Final

Rice@

TCU

38%
62%

21
14

✗

TCU −5.2

–

Final

Ohio@

South Carolina

8.0%
92%

7
24

✓

SC −23.4

–

Final

SMU@

Baylor

54%
46%

28
21

✓

SMU −1.7

–

Final

#21East Carolina@

Southern MissUpset

62%
38%

16
17

✗

ECU −5.0

–

Final

Cincinnati@

Temple

26%
74%

13
16

✓

TEM −10.7

–

Final

North Texas@

#9Texas

24%
76%

16
26

✓

TEX −12.1

–

Final

Texas Tech@

New Mexico

51%
49%

36
23

✓

TTU −0.4

–

Final

Louisiana@Texas-Arlington

52%
48%

3
24

✗

UL −0.7

–

Final

Boston College@

Tulane

25%
75%

3
9

✓

TULN −11.3

–

Final

#24Washington State@

UCLAUpset

45%
55%

31
45

✓

UCLA −2.0

–

Final

VMI@Richmond

51%
49%

23
6

✓

VMI −0.4

–

Final

West Virginia@

Virginia Tech

31%
69%

3
16

✓

VT −8.5

–

Final

#17Washington@

#23Stanford

49%
51%

34
31

✗

STAN −0.5

–

Final

Lamar@West Texas

42%
58%

16
55

✓

West Texas −3.4

–

Final

The Citadel@Western Carolina

45%
55%

24
38

✓

Western Carolina −2.1

–

Final

Toledo@

Western Michigan

7.0%
93%

7
17

✓

WMU −24.6

–

Final

Illinois@

Wisconsin

19%
81%

20
20

✗

WIS −14.7

–

Final

San Diego State@

Wyoming

73%
27%

22
31

✗

SDSU −10.0

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Sat, Oct 14 · TBD	Appalachian State at Lenoir Rhyne	Lenoir Rhyne −4.9	61%
Sat, Oct 14 · TBD	San Jose State at Boise State	Boise State −12.5	77%
Sat, Oct 14 · TBD	Jacksonville State at Chattanooga	Chattanooga −8.8	70%
Sat, Oct 14 · TBD	Furman at East Tennessee State	Furman −5.0	62%
Sat, Oct 14 · TBD	Northwestern State at Louisville	Louisville −22.6	91%
Sat, Oct 14 · TBD	Nevada at Cal State Fullerton	Cal State Fullerton −0.9	52%
Sat, Oct 14 · TBD	Western Illinois at Northern Illinois	Northern Illinois −7.4	67%
Sat, Oct 14 · TBD	UConn at Rutgers	Rutgers −28.2	96%
Sat, Oct 14 · TBD	Weber State at Utah	Utah −24.2	93%
Sat, Oct 14 · TBD	James Madison at William & Mary	William & Mary −18.2	86%