The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 1978

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 66 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

18 upsets against 18.4 expected

  • Biggest shockRice over Baylor12% chance · won 24-10
  • Runner-upOhio over Bowling Green17% chance · won 19-15
  • Runner-upMissouri over Nebraska18% chance · won 35-31

Upsets

Sat, Nov 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 62 games

Final
Western Carolina@Appalachian State
53%
47%
13
39
✗
Western Carolina −1.5
–
–
Final
Washington State@Arizona
32%
68%
24
31
✓
ARIZ −7.1
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Oregon State
75%
25%
44
22
✓
ASU −11.4
–
–
Final
#21Texas A&M@#13Arkansas
34%
66%
7
26
✓
ARK −6.2
–
–
Final
Lamar@Arkansas State
8.6%
91%
3
6
✓
ARST −21.5
–
–
Final
#18Ball State@Northern Illinois
92%
7.6%
31
13
✓
BALL −23.4
–
–
Final
Brown@Columbia
77%
23%
24
12
✓
Brown −12.1
–
–
Final
#17Central Michigan@Western Michigan
70%
30%
35
14
✓
CMU −8.6
–
–
Final
#8Clemson@#12Maryland
48%
52%
28
24
✗
MD −0.3
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Colorado State
34%
66%
14
50
✓
CSU −6.1
–
–
Final
Pennsylvania@Cornell
40%
60%
17
35
✓
Cornell −3.6
–
–
Final
Dartmouth@Princeton
60%
40%
28
21
✓
Dartmouth −4.7
–
–
Final
Marshall@East Carolina
3.2%
97%
0
45
✓
ECU −29.3
–
–
Final
Florida@Kentucky
48%
52%
18
16
✗
UK −0.2
–
–
Final
#25Navy@#19Florida State
40%
60%
6
38
✓
FSU −3.7
–
–
Final
The Citadel@Furman
20%
80%
13
17
✓
Furman −13.0
–
–
Final
Auburn@Georgia
30%
70%
22
22
✗
UGA −7.8
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Hawaii
43%
57%
22
27
✓
HAW −2.3
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Illinois State
68%
32%
13
14
✗
EMU −7.9
–
–
Final
Wichita State@Indiana State
67%
33%
18
42
✗
Wichita State −7.5
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Iowa
59%
41%
24
38
✗
WIS −3.9
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Colorado
48%
52%
20
16
✗
COLO −0.5
–
–
Final
Kansas@Kansas State
40%
60%
20
36
✓
KSU −3.7
–
–
Final
Toledo@Kent State
35%
65%
13
17
✓
KENT −5.5
–
–
Final
Drake@Long Beach State
28%
72%
0
25
✓
Long Beach State −8.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Louisiana-MonroeUpset
81%
19%
0
18
✗
LT −14.6
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Miami (FL)
41%
59%
14
16
✓
MIA −3.2
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Miami (OH)
38%
62%
24
28
✓
M-OH −4.3
–
–
Final
Purdue@#5Michigan
14%
86%
6
24
✓
MICH −16.6
–
–
Final
#10Michigan State@Northwestern
>99%
0.5%
52
3
✓
MSU −41.4
–
–
Final
Illinois@Minnesota
20%
80%
6
24
✓
MINN −13.1
–
–
Final
LSU@Mississippi State
47%
53%
14
16
✓
MSST −0.7
–
–
Final
#20Missouri@#3NebraskaUpset
18%
82%
35
31
✗
NEB −14.0
–
–
Final
UTEP@UNLV
10.0%
90%
0
27
✓
UNLV −20.1
–
–
Final
Pacific@New Mexico
25%
75%
6
44
✓
UNM −10.1
–
–
Final
Virginia@North Carolina
12%
88%
20
38
✓
UNC −18.1
–
–
Final
Duke@NC State
13%
87%
10
24
✓
NCSU −17.8
–
–
Final
North Texas@Memphis
71%
29%
41
24
✓
UNT −9.4
–
–
Final
#7Notre Dame@Georgia Tech
74%
26%
38
21
✓
ND −10.9
–
–
Final
Ohio@Bowling GreenUpset
17%
83%
19
15
✗
BGSU −14.8
–
–
Final
#15Ohio State@Indiana
81%
19%
21
18
✓
OSU −14.6
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#2Oklahoma
4.0%
96%
7
62
✓
OU −27.6
–
–
Final
Army@#14Pittsburgh
5.9%
94%
17
35
✓
PITT −24.6
–
–
Final
Baylor@RiceUpset
88%
12%
10
24
✗
BAY −19.3
–
–
Final
William & Mary@Richmond
64%
36%
3
17
✗
William & Mary −6.3
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Holy Cross
79%
21%
31
21
✓
RUTG −13.5
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@South Carolina
10.0%
90%
14
37
✓
SC −20.1
–
–
Final
#6USC@#23UCLA
69%
31%
17
10
✓
USC −8.5
–
–
Final
Southern Illinois@Louisiana
28%
72%
10
9
✗
UL −8.6
–
–
Final
Louisville@Southern Miss
54%
46%
3
37
✗
LOU −2.1
–
–
Final
#22Stanford@California
61%
39%
30
10
✓
STAN −4.9
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Boston College
61%
39%
37
23
✓
SYR −5.0
–
–
Final
Villanova@Temple
16%
84%
17
27
✓
TEM −15.2
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Tennessee
36%
64%
17
41
✓
TENN −5.1
–
–
Final
Chattanooga@Tennessee State
44%
56%
23
27
✓
Tennessee State −2.0
–
–
Final
#9Texas@TCU
97%
3.0%
41
0
✓
TEX −30.5
–
–
Final
SMU@Texas Tech
49%
51%
16
19
✓
PK
–
–
Final
Texas-Arlington@McNeese
38%
62%
20
17
✗
McNeese −4.2
–
–
Final
#24BYU@UtahUpset
68%
32%
22
23
✗
BYU −8.0
–
–
Final
Air Force@Vanderbilt
52%
48%
27
41
✗
AF −1.4
–
–
Final
VMI@Virginia Tech
29%
71%
2
28
✓
VT −8.4
–
–
Final
Yale@Harvard
71%
29%
35
28
✓
Yale −9.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 18 · TBD Cal State Fullerton at Cal Poly-Pomona Cal State Fullerton −6.4 64%
Sat, Nov 18 · TBD Colgate at Delaware Delaware −10.0 74%
Sat, Nov 18 · TBD Fresno State at Idaho Fresno State −15.1 82%
Sat, Nov 18 · TBD Montana at San Jose State San Jose State −22.0 92%