The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 1978

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 67 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

20 upsets against 17.2 expected

  • Biggest shockHoly Cross over Colgate3.4% chance · won 27-14
  • Runner-upUC Davis over Pacific13% chance · won 31-14
  • Runner-upSouthern Illinois over Lamar15% chance · won 22-20

Upsets

Sat, Sep 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 52 games

Final
Air Force@Boston CollegeUpset
22%
78%
18
7
✗
BC −11.3
–
–
Final
#1Alabama@#23Missouri
69%
31%
38
20
✓
ALA −8.1
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Marshall
28%
72%
28
7
✗
MRSH −8.5
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Arizona
18%
82%
7
21
✓
ARIZ −13.8
–
–
Final
#9BYU@#8Arizona State
38%
62%
17
24
✓
ASU −4.1
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#16Arkansas
10%
90%
17
48
✓
ARK −19.3
–
–
Final
Auburn@Kansas State
65%
35%
45
32
✓
AUB −6.5
–
–
Final
Kent State@#6Ball State
4.5%
96%
3
27
✓
BALL −26.1
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Eastern Michigan
53%
47%
43
6
✓
BGSU −1.8
–
–
Final
California@Georgia Tech
54%
46%
34
22
✓
CAL −2.2
–
–
Final
#7Central Michigan@Miami (OH)
68%
32%
37
18
✓
CMU −7.8
–
–
Final
Chattanooga@Louisiana Tech
42%
58%
12
7
✗
LT −2.6
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Cincinnati
42%
58%
14
26
✓
CIN −2.6
–
–
Final
The Citadel@Clemson
11%
89%
3
58
✓
CLEM −18.4
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Colorado
16%
84%
7
17
✓
COLO −14.7
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#2Florida State
4.2%
96%
20
38
✓
FSU −26.6
–
–
Final
Baylor@Georgia
43%
57%
14
16
✓
UGA −2.4
–
–
Final
Holy Cross@ColgateUpset
3.4%
97%
27
14
✗
Colgate −28.0
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Iowa
17%
84%
3
20
✓
IOWA −14.6
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Iowa State
44%
56%
13
14
✓
ISU −1.9
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Kentucky
38%
62%
14
14
✗
UK −4.1
–
–
Final
Indiana@LSU
29%
72%
17
24
✓
LSU −8.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana-Monroe
63%
37%
13
21
✗
ARST −5.6
–
–
Final
#20Maryland@Louisville
46%
54%
24
17
✗
LOU −1.0
–
–
Final
McNeese@West Texas
32%
68%
45
13
✗
West Texas −6.7
–
–
Final
Houston@Memphis
34%
66%
3
17
✓
MEM −5.8
–
–
Final
Illinois@Michigan
9.0%
91%
0
31
✓
MICH −20.4
–
–
Final
Toledo@Minnesota
8.9%
91%
12
38
✓
MINN −20.5
–
–
Final
Navy@Virginia
75%
25%
32
0
✓
NAVY −10.7
–
–
Final
Hawaii@#15Nebraska
19%
81%
10
56
✓
NEB −13.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Wichita State
60%
40%
16
14
✓
UNM −4.4
–
–
Final
UTEP@New Mexico State
8.4%
92%
32
35
✓
NMSU −21.0
–
–
Final
East Carolina@North Carolina
39%
61%
10
14
✓
UNC −3.9
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#14NC State
11%
89%
19
27
✓
NCSU −18.4
–
–
Final
Texas-Arlington@#19North Texas
4.6%
95%
23
28
✓
UNT −25.9
–
–
Final
West Virginia@#5Oklahoma
6.9%
93%
10
52
✓
OU −22.6
–
–
Final
#3Penn State@#25Ohio State
63%
37%
19
0
✓
PSU −5.7
–
–
Final
#13Pittsburgh@Tulane
82%
18%
24
6
✓
PITT −14.5
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Purdue
50%
50%
14
21
✗
MSU −0.5
–
–
Final
#12USC@Oregon
89%
11%
37
10
✓
USC −19.6
–
–
Final
Southern Illinois@LamarUpset
15%
85%
22
20
✗
Lamar −15.9
–
–
Final
SMU@Florida
39%
61%
35
25
✗
FLA −3.7
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Stanford
29%
71%
9
38
✓
STAN −8.1
–
–
Final
Temple@Drake
90%
9.7%
36
29
✓
TEM −20.6
–
–
Final
#17Texas@Rice
91%
9.2%
34
0
✓
TEX −21.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Tulsa
58%
42%
3
10
✗
UL −3.8
–
–
Final
#18UCLA@Tennessee
64%
36%
13
0
✓
UCLA −6.2
–
–
Final
Utah State@Colorado StateUpset
23%
77%
21
20
✗
CSU −10.8
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Wake Forest
47%
53%
28
6
✗
WAKE −0.7
–
–
Final
Kansas@#21Washington
6.2%
94%
2
31
✓
WASH −23.6
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Northern Illinois
54%
46%
44
30
✓
WMU −2.2
–
–
Final
Richmond@Wisconsin
13%
87%
6
7
✓
WIS −17.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Lafayette at Army Army −22.4 93%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Long Beach State at Boise State Boise State −11.3 78%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Santa Clara at Cal State Fullerton Cal State Fullerton −1.3 55%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD UC Davis at Pacific Pacific −16.7 87%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Western Carolina at East Tennessee State Western Carolina −1.9 54%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD #24 Fresno State at Weber State Fresno State −15.3 83%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Carson Newman at Furman Furman −11.3 78%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Western Illinois at Indiana State Western Illinois −7.6 68%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Nevada at UNLV UNLV −13.9 82%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Villanova at UMass UMass −7.9 71%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Bucknell at VMI VMI −11.9 79%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Idaho at #22 Washington State Washington State −36.3 99%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Western Kentucky at Illinois State Illinois State −4.0 62%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD William & Mary at UConn William & Mary −1.9 54%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD South Dakota at Wyoming Wyoming −21.1 92%