The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 1978

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 69 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

21 upsets against 19.7 expected

  • Biggest shockLamar over Louisiana-Monroe10% chance · won 17-17
  • Runner-upMiami (OH) over North Carolina19% chance · won 7-3
  • Runner-upLouisiana over Louisiana Tech23% chance · won 24-6

Upsets

Sat, Oct 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 62 games

Final
#4Alabama@#17Washington
65%
35%
20
17
✓
ALA −6.2
–
–
Final
#23Arizona State@Northwestern
95%
5.0%
56
14
✓
ASU −27.2
–
–
Final
TCU@#11Arkansas
1.7%
98%
3
42
✓
ARK −35.3
–
–
Final
Indiana State@#9Ball State
0.8%
99%
0
7
✓
BALL −39.8
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Toledo
90%
10%
45
27
✓
BGSU −21.0
–
–
Final
Brown@Princeton
45%
55%
44
16
✗
Princeton −2.3
–
–
Final
Oregon@#24California
6.2%
94%
18
21
✓
CAL −25.6
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Ohio
85%
15%
17
3
✓
CMU −16.9
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Chattanooga
16%
84%
14
72
✓
Chattanooga −16.5
–
–
Final
Marshall@The Citadel
50%
50%
0
41
✓
The Citadel −0.3
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@#19Clemson
19%
81%
7
38
✓
CLEM −14.9
–
–
Final
Kansas@#22Colorado
6.8%
93%
7
17
✓
COLO −24.8
–
–
Final
UTEP@Colorado State
17%
83%
29
39
✓
CSU −15.7
–
–
Final
Wichita State@Drake
67%
33%
22
48
✗
Wichita State −7.1
–
–
Final
Virginia@Duke
10%
90%
13
20
✓
DUKE −20.9
–
–
Final
East Carolina@VMI
76%
24%
19
6
✓
ECU −11.6
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#13Florida State
13%
87%
21
26
✓
FSU −18.7
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Georgia
36%
64%
3
42
✓
UGA −6.3
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Georgia Tech
64%
36%
3
6
✗
SC −5.7
–
–
Final
Colgate@Harvard
42%
58%
21
24
✓
Harvard −3.5
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Hawaii
37%
63%
11
25
✓
HAW −5.7
–
–
Final
Houston@Baylor
50%
50%
20
18
✗
BAY −0.2
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Kansas State
58%
42%
7
18
✗
OKST −3.4
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Long Beach State
41%
59%
19
24
✓
Long Beach State −3.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@LouisianaUpset
77%
23%
6
24
✗
LT −12.4
–
–
Final
LSU@Florida
40%
60%
34
21
✗
FLA −4.4
–
–
Final
Lamar@Louisiana-Monroe
10%
90%
17
17
✗
ULM −20.9
–
–
Final
#20NC State@#12Maryland
36%
64%
7
31
✓
MD −6.0
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Auburn
30%
70%
17
15
✗
AUB −8.7
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@#18North CarolinaUpset
19%
81%
7
3
✗
UNC −14.5
–
–
Final
Arizona@#1Michigan
9.7%
90%
17
21
✓
MICH −21.6
–
–
Final
Illinois@Missouri
12%
88%
3
45
✓
MIZ −19.3
–
–
Final
#21Navy@Air Force
86%
14%
37
8
✓
NAVY −18.2
–
–
Final
#6Nebraska@Iowa State
69%
31%
23
0
✓
NEB −8.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Wyoming
56%
44%
19
15
✓
UNM −2.2
–
–
Final
North Texas@West Texas
86%
14%
35
0
✓
UNT −17.6
–
–
Final
#15Notre Dame@Michigan State
58%
42%
29
25
✓
ND −3.4
–
–
Final
#5Texas@#2Oklahoma
38%
62%
10
31
✓
OU −5.3
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Minnesota
26%
74%
17
14
✗
MINN −10.5
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Pacific
38%
62%
17
35
✓
Pacific −5.1
–
–
Final
#3Penn State@Kentucky
74%
26%
30
0
✓
PSU −10.8
–
–
Final
Columbia@Pennsylvania
33%
67%
19
31
✓
Pennsylvania −7.3
–
–
Final
#10Pittsburgh@Boston College
93%
6.9%
32
15
✓
PITT −24.5
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Purdue
12%
88%
7
14
✓
PUR −19.6
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Yale
54%
46%
28
27
✓
RUTG −1.6
–
–
Final
Fresno State@San Diego State
34%
66%
14
31
✓
SDSU −7.0
–
–
Final
Southern Illinois@Illinois State
49%
51%
26
0
✗
Illinois State −0.4
–
–
Final
#16Ohio State@SMU
53%
46%
35
35
✓
OSU −1.3
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Southern Miss
60%
40%
17
22
✗
MSST −4.0
–
–
Final
Syracuse@West Virginia
32%
68%
31
15
✗
WVU −7.8
–
–
Final
William & Mary@Temple
27%
73%
22
22
✗
TEM −10.1
–
–
Final
Army@Tennessee
47%
53%
13
31
✓
TENN −1.2
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#8Texas A&M
17%
83%
9
38
✓
TA&M −15.6
–
–
Final
Texas-Arlington@New Mexico State
39%
61%
28
17
✗
NMSU −4.7
–
–
Final
Tulane@Vanderbilt
49%
51%
38
3
✗
VAN −0.5
–
–
Final
Louisville@Tulsa
71%
29%
7
24
✗
LOU −9.1
–
–
Final
Stanford@UCLA
44%
56%
26
27
✓
UCLA −2.5
–
–
Final
Utah@Iowa
66%
34%
13
9
✓
UTAH −6.7
–
–
Final
Utah State@#14BYUUpset
24%
76%
24
7
✗
BYU −12.1
–
–
Final
Richmond@Villanova
35%
65%
14
17
✓
Villanova −6.5
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Kent State
60%
40%
14
0
✓
WMU −3.9
–
–
Final
Indiana@Wisconsin
46%
54%
7
34
✓
WIS −1.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 7 · TBD Northwestern State at Arkansas State Arkansas State −11.4 75%
Sat, Oct 7 · TBD Boston University at Dartmouth Dartmouth −9.2 71%
Sat, Oct 7 · TBD Bucknell at Cornell Cornell −5.6 63%
Sat, Oct 7 · TBD Akron at Eastern Michigan Akron −8.7 70%
Sat, Oct 7 · TBD Wofford at Furman Furman −13.5 79%
Sat, Oct 7 · TBD Nicholls at McNeese McNeese −8.4 69%
Sat, Oct 7 · TBD Idaho at UNLV UNLV −15.6 82%