The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 1978

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 35 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

12 upsets against 10.1 expected

  • Biggest shockColgate over Rutgers6.4% chance · won 14-9
  • Runner-upBaylor over Texas17% chance · won 38-14
  • Runner-upLamar over Long Beach State23% chance · won 36-31

Upsets

Thu, Nov 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Colorado State@Pacific
57%
43%
20
13
✓
CSU −3.3
–
–

Fri, Nov 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Cal State Fullerton@UNLV
26%
74%
7
24
✓
UNLV −10.0
–
–
Final
#15Pittsburgh@#2Penn State
19%
81%
10
17
✓
PSU −13.3
–
–

Sat, Nov 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 30 games

Final
Arizona State@Arizona
53%
46%
18
17
✓
ASU −1.9
–
–
Final
#11Arkansas@SMU
63%
37%
27
14
✓
ARK −5.6
–
–
Final
#7Texas@BaylorUpset
83%
17%
14
38
✗
TEX −15.4
–
–
Final
#23BYU@Hawaii
73%
27%
31
13
✓
BYU −10.4
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Memphis
61%
39%
34
14
✓
CIN −5.0
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#9Clemson
18%
82%
23
41
✓
CLEM −14.2
–
–
Final
Colgate@RutgersUpset
6.4%
94%
14
9
✗
RUTG −24.0
–
–
Final
Florida@#14Florida State
31%
69%
21
38
✓
FSU −7.6
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@LamarUpset
77%
23%
31
36
✗
Long Beach State −12.3
–
–
Final
Tulane@#25LSU
15%
85%
21
40
✓
LSU −15.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana@McNeese
27%
73%
18
44
✓
McNeese −9.5
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Miami (FL)
35%
65%
9
21
✓
MIA −5.7
–
–
Final
#4Michigan@#18Ohio State
66%
34%
14
3
✓
MICH −6.8
–
–
Final
Iowa@#10Michigan State
2.2%
98%
7
42
✓
MSU −31.9
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Ole Miss
72%
28%
7
27
✗
MSST −9.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@West Texas
48%
52%
33
31
✗
West Texas −0.4
–
–
Final
Duke@North Carolina
21%
79%
15
16
✓
UNC −12.6
–
–
Final
NC State@Virginia
89%
11%
24
21
✓
NCSU −19.7
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Ohio
42%
58%
23
14
✗
OHIO −2.6
–
–
Final
Oregon@Oregon State
42%
58%
24
3
✗
ORST −2.7
–
–
Final
Indiana@Purdue
21%
79%
7
20
✓
PUR −12.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico@San Diego State
50%
50%
24
27
✓
UNM −0.5
–
–
Final
#8Notre Dame@#6USC
35%
65%
25
27
✓
USC −5.6
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Tennessee
51%
49%
14
29
✗
UK −1.0
–
–
Final
TCU@Texas A&M
3.8%
96%
7
15
✓
TA&M −28.2
–
–
Final
#12Houston@Texas TechUpset
65%
35%
21
22
✗
HOU −6.8
–
–
Final
Utah@Utah State
46%
54%
23
20
✗
USU −1.0
–
–
Final
#17Washington@Washington State
74%
26%
38
8
✓
WASH −10.5
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Wisconsin
56%
44%
10
48
✗
MINN −2.9
–
–
Final
Wyoming@UTEP
84%
16%
51
21
✓
WYO −16.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 25 · TBD UConn at Holy Cross Holy Cross −12.2 79%
Sat, Nov 25 · TBD Boston College at UMass UMass −12.0 78%