The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 1978

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 14 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

2 upsets against 3.0 expected

  • Biggest shockMiami (FL) over Florida26% chance · won 22-21
  • Runner-upUtah over San Diego State47% chance · won 20-18
  • Runner-upHoly Cross over Boston College58% chance · won 30-29

Sat, Dec 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 14 games

Final
Auburn@#3Alabama
9.9%
90%
16
34
✓
ALA −20.2
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#10Arkansas
20%
80%
7
49
✓
ARK −12.9
–
–
Final
UNLV@#22BYU
15%
85%
24
28
✓
BYU −16.1
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Georgia
29%
71%
28
29
✓
UGA −8.3
–
–
Final
Holy Cross@Boston College
58%
42%
30
29
✓
Holy Cross −3.6
–
–
Final
Rice@#12Houston
1.9%
98%
25
49
✓
HOU −33.0
–
–
Final
Wyoming@#23LSU
17%
83%
17
24
✓
LSU −14.6
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Florida
26%
74%
22
21
✗
FLA −9.9
–
–
Final
Army@Navy
12%
88%
0
28
✓
NAVY −18.7
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@San Jose State
39%
61%
6
24
✓
SJSU −3.9
–
–
Final
#6USC@Hawaii
91%
8.6%
21
5
✓
USC −22.3
–
–
Final
Tennessee@Vanderbilt
88%
12%
41
15
✓
TENN −19.0
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@#11Texas
25%
75%
7
22
✓
TEX −10.4
–
–
Final
Utah@San Diego State
47%
53%
20
18
✗
SDSU −0.7
–
–