The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 1978

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 67 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

20 upsets against 17.9 expected

  • Biggest shockOhio over Western Michigan9.4% chance · won 10-7
  • Runner-upEast Tennessee State over Appalachian State20% chance · won 35-34
  • Runner-upPennsylvania over Yale20% chance · won 17-17

Upsets

Fri, Oct 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Arizona@#13UCLA
21%
79%
14
24
✓
UCLA −12.5
–
–

Sat, Oct 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 60 games

Final
Kent State@Air Force
58%
42%
10
26
✗
KENT −3.8
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@#5Alabama
5.2%
95%
0
35
✓
ALA −25.6
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Texas-Arlington
34%
66%
27
7
✗
Texas-Arlington −6.3
–
–
Final
Colgate@Army
46%
54%
3
28
✓
ARMY −1.2
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Auburn
12%
88%
7
21
✓
AUB −18.0
–
–
Final
#22Ball State@Eastern Michigan
88%
12%
21
0
✓
BALL −19.4
–
–
Final
Baylor@TCU
87%
13%
28
21
✓
BAY −18.6
–
–
Final
Holy Cross@Brown
50%
50%
25
31
✓
Holy Cross −0.5
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Fresno StateUpset
24%
76%
37
8
✗
FRES −10.9
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Bowling Green
54%
46%
38
7
✓
CMU −2.3
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Louisiana
56%
44%
38
13
✓
CIN −2.8
–
–
Final
#12Clemson@#19NC State
50%
50%
33
10
✓
CLEM −0.6
–
–
Final
Colorado@#15MissouriUpset
24%
76%
28
27
✗
MIZ −10.8
–
–
Final
Dartmouth@Cornell
41%
59%
14
7
✗
Cornell −3.0
–
–
Final
Richmond@East Carolina
7.4%
93%
14
21
✓
ECU −22.7
–
–
Final
Florida State@Southern Miss
62%
38%
38
16
✓
FSU −5.1
–
–
Final
Furman@Marshall
69%
31%
42
12
✓
Furman −8.5
–
–
Final
Georgia@Kentucky
57%
43%
17
16
✓
UGA −3.4
–
–
Final
Florida@Georgia Tech
50%
50%
13
17
✓
FLA −0.3
–
–
Final
Princeton@Harvard
32%
68%
24
24
✗
Harvard −7.1
–
–
Final
#9Arkansas@#17Houston
51%
49%
9
20
✗
ARK −0.8
–
–
Final
Illinois@Indiana
32%
68%
10
31
✓
IU −7.0
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Kansas
72%
28%
13
7
✓
ISU −9.8
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Long Beach State
70%
30%
25
27
✗
SDSU −8.7
–
–
Final
Indiana State@Louisiana-Monroe
26%
74%
0
14
✓
ULM −9.8
–
–
Final
William & Mary@Louisville
31%
69%
21
33
✓
LOU −7.6
–
–
Final
#8Maryland@Duke
82%
18%
27
0
✓
MD −15.1
–
–
Final
Chattanooga@McNeese
68%
32%
24
28
✗
Chattanooga −7.8
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Toledo
86%
14%
28
7
✓
M-OH −17.5
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#4Michigan
5.9%
94%
10
42
✓
MICH −24.7
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@#20Michigan State
11%
89%
2
55
✓
MSU −19.0
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Vanderbilt
72%
28%
35
10
✓
MISS −9.6
–
–
Final
Tennessee@#25Mississippi State
17%
83%
21
34
✓
MSST −14.6
–
–
Final
#11Pittsburgh@#14Navy
46%
54%
11
21
✓
NAVY −0.9
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#2Nebraska
3.1%
97%
14
22
✓
NEB −29.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico@UTEP
84%
16%
21
0
✓
UNM −16.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Wichita State
44%
56%
31
21
✗
Wichita State −1.8
–
–
Final
North Carolina@South Carolina
38%
62%
24
22
✗
SC −4.3
–
–
Final
North Texas@Louisiana Tech
48%
52%
16
14
✗
LT −0.4
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Southern Illinois
58%
42%
14
13
✓
NIU −3.6
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@#10Notre Dame
15%
85%
0
20
✓
ND −16.1
–
–
Final
Ohio@Western MichiganUpset
9.4%
91%
10
7
✗
WMU −20.7
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#24Ohio State
0.8%
99%
20
63
✓
OSU −38.3
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#1Oklahoma
1.0%
99%
19
56
✓
OU −37.3
–
–
Final
Washington State@OregonUpset
77%
23%
7
31
✗
WSU −12.1
–
–
Final
Pacific@Hawaii
36%
64%
27
17
✗
HAW −5.3
–
–
Final
#3Penn State@West Virginia
96%
4.4%
49
21
✓
PSU −27.7
–
–
Final
Purdue@Iowa
82%
18%
34
7
✓
PUR −14.9
–
–
Final
Columbia@Rutgers
8.8%
91%
0
69
✓
RUTG −21.2
–
–
Final
California@#6USC
17%
83%
17
42
✓
USC −14.6
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#23Stanford
8.8%
91%
6
24
✓
STAN −21.2
–
–
Final
SMU@#7Texas
19%
81%
3
22
✓
TEX −13.4
–
–
Final
Rice@#18Texas A&M
2.5%
98%
21
38
✓
TA&M −31.1
–
–
Final
Memphis@Tulane
43%
57%
24
41
✓
TULN −2.3
–
–
Final
Drake@Tulsa
16%
84%
20
44
✓
TLSA −15.2
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Utah State
22%
78%
21
31
✓
USU −11.8
–
–
Final
#16Arizona State@#21Washington
47%
53%
7
41
✓
WASH −0.5
–
–
Final
Western Carolina@VMI
37%
63%
41
12
✗
VMI −4.8
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Colorado State
55%
45%
13
3
✓
WYO −2.5
–
–
Final
Pennsylvania@Yale
20%
80%
17
17
✗
Yale −12.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 28 · TBD Delaware at The Citadel Delaware −7.3 66%
Sat, Oct 28 · TBD East Tennessee State at Appalachian State Appalachian State −13.2 80%
Sat, Oct 28 · TBD UNLV at Montana UNLV −16.3 84%
Sat, Oct 28 · TBD Temple at Akron Temple −4.6 60%
Sat, Oct 28 · TBD Villanova at Youngstown State Youngstown State −5.0 63%
Sat, Oct 28 · TBD Illinois State at Western Illinois Western Illinois −11.7 78%