The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 1978

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 68 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

9 upsets against 16.6 expected

  • Biggest shockBoston University over Holy Cross15% chance · won 15-7
  • Runner-upRichmond over North Carolina19% chance · won 27-18
  • Runner-upWestern Carolina over Chattanooga20% chance · won 31-21

Upsets

Sat, Nov 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 62 games

Final
#25Mississippi State@#5Alabama
20%
80%
14
35
✓
ALA −12.8
–
–
Final
California@Arizona State
32%
68%
21
35
✓
ASU −6.8
–
–
Final
Rice@#15Arkansas
2.1%
98%
7
37
✓
ARK −32.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana
55%
44%
16
6
✓
ARST −2.7
–
–
Final
Air Force@Army
32%
68%
14
28
✓
ARMY −6.8
–
–
Final
#21Ball State@Bowling Green
69%
31%
39
14
✓
BALL −8.5
–
–
Final
Wyoming@BYU
24%
76%
14
48
✓
BYU −10.6
–
–
Final
Brown@Harvard
65%
35%
31
30
✓
Brown −6.5
–
–
Final
Toledo@#20Central Michigan
2.3%
98%
3
27
✓
CMU −31.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Cincinnati
20%
80%
7
20
✓
CIN −12.7
–
–
Final
#9Clemson@Wake Forest
94%
6.1%
51
6
✓
CLEM −25.2
–
–
Final
Columbia@Dartmouth
29%
71%
7
37
✓
Dartmouth −8.3
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Appalachian State
79%
21%
33
8
✓
ECU −13.2
–
–
Final
Auburn@Florida
41%
59%
7
31
✓
FLA −3.1
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Fresno State
48%
52%
41
42
✓
FRES −0.2
–
–
Final
VMI@Georgia
11%
89%
3
41
✓
UGA −19.4
–
–
Final
UTEP@Hawaii
14%
86%
13
35
✓
HAW −17.1
–
–
Final
TCU@#17Houston
3.0%
97%
6
63
✓
HOU −29.8
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Iowa State
14%
86%
0
24
✓
ISU −16.5
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Virginia Tech
62%
38%
28
0
✓
UK −5.2
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@LSU
18%
82%
8
30
✓
LSU −14.1
–
–
Final
Lamar@Louisiana Tech
2.3%
98%
3
40
✓
LT −31.7
–
–
Final
Louisville@Wichita State
85%
15%
38
20
✓
LOU −16.7
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Memphis
18%
82%
14
35
✓
MEM −14.2
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Ohio
82%
18%
31
16
✓
M-OH −15.0
–
–
Final
#4Michigan@Iowa
97%
2.7%
34
0
✓
MICH −31.3
–
–
Final
#11Michigan State@Illinois
94%
5.8%
59
19
✓
MSU −25.6
–
–
Final
Indiana@Minnesota
40%
60%
31
32
✓
MINN −3.5
–
–
Final
#3Nebraska@Kansas
96%
4.1%
63
21
✓
NEB −28.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Utah
49%
51%
24
12
✗
PK
–
–
Final
Drake@New Mexico State
25%
75%
20
21
✓
NMSU −10.2
–
–
Final
South Carolina@NC State
37%
63%
13
22
✓
NCSU −4.9
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@North Texas
25%
75%
12
25
✓
UNT −10.5
–
–
Final
Kent State@Northern Illinois
46%
54%
21
27
✓
NIU −0.9
–
–
Final
#14Navy@#10Notre Dame
37%
63%
7
27
✓
ND −4.6
–
–
Final
#24Ohio State@Wisconsin
83%
17%
49
14
✓
OSU −15.7
–
–
Final
#1Oklahoma@Colorado
84%
16%
28
7
✓
OU −16.0
–
–
Final
#18Missouri@Oklahoma StateUpset
78%
22%
20
35
✗
MIZ −12.6
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Washington StateUpset
21%
79%
32
31
✗
WSU −12.2
–
–
Final
#8Maryland@#2Penn State
31%
69%
3
27
✓
PSU −7.4
–
–
Final
#12Pittsburgh@Syracuse
88%
12%
18
17
✓
PITT −18.8
–
–
Final
Pennsylvania@Princeton
58%
42%
0
21
✗
Pennsylvania −3.7
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Purdue
0.8%
99%
0
31
✓
PUR −38.1
–
–
Final
North Carolina@RichmondUpset
81%
19%
18
27
✗
UNC −14.4
–
–
Final
Colorado State@San Diego State
23%
77%
31
34
✓
SDSU −11.2
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@San Jose State
38%
62%
21
30
✓
SJSU −4.4
–
–
Final
#6USC@#23Stanford
65%
35%
13
7
✓
USC −6.8
–
–
Final
Southern Illinois@Indiana State
44%
56%
28
7
✗
Indiana State −1.8
–
–
Final
Duke@Tennessee
43%
57%
0
34
✓
TENN −2.3
–
–
Final
#22Texas A&M@SMU
57%
43%
20
17
✓
TA&M −3.2
–
–
Final
Baylor@Texas Tech
44%
56%
9
27
✓
TTU −2.0
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Tulane
51%
49%
16
20
✗
MIA −1.0
–
–
Final
West Texas@Tulsa
22%
78%
23
44
✓
TLSA −11.7
–
–
Final
Oregon@#16UCLA
9.0%
91%
21
23
✓
UCLA −21.0
–
–
Final
Pacific@Utah State
30%
70%
14
40
✓
USU −8.1
–
–
Final
Boston College@Villanova
38%
62%
16
28
✓
Villanova −4.3
–
–
Final
Arizona@#13Washington
20%
80%
21
31
✓
WASH −13.1
–
–
Final
Virginia@West Virginia
35%
65%
17
20
✓
WVU −5.7
–
–
Final
Western Carolina@ChattanoogaUpset
20%
80%
31
21
✗
Chattanooga −12.8
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Marshall
86%
14%
24
6
✓
WMU −17.5
–
–
Final
The Citadel@William & Mary
18%
82%
8
12
✓
William & Mary −14.5
–
–
Final
Cornell@Yale
19%
81%
14
42
✓
Yale −13.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 4 · TBD Holy Cross at Boston University Holy Cross −17.0 85%
Sat, Nov 4 · TBD Lafayette at Colgate Colgate −14.6 83%
Sat, Nov 4 · TBD Illinois State at Eastern Illinois Eastern Illinois −15.4 84%
Sat, Nov 4 · TBD Davidson at Furman Furman −9.0 72%
Sat, Nov 4 · TBD Rutgers at UMass Rutgers −13.5 79%
Sat, Nov 4 · TBD Northwestern State at Texas-Arlington Texas-Arlington −14.7 83%