The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 1978

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 72 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

20 upsets against 18.1 expected

  • Biggest shockCal Poly over Fresno State4.1% chance · won 24-12
  • Runner-upArmy over Washington State12% chance · won 21-21
  • Runner-upHouston over Florida State15% chance · won 27-21

Upsets

Fri, Sep 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Michigan State@#8USC
24%
76%
9
30
✓
USC −12.1
–
–

Sat, Sep 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 60 games

Final
Vanderbilt@#2Alabama
3.0%
97%
28
51
✓
ALA −31.4
–
–
Final
Iowa@Arizona
19%
81%
3
23
✓
ARIZ −14.4
–
–
Final
UTEP@Arizona State
5.2%
95%
0
27
✓
ASU −27.0
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#5Arkansas
4.5%
96%
13
21
✓
ARK −28.3
–
–
Final
Tennessee@Auburn
28%
72%
10
29
✓
AUB −9.8
–
–
Final
#11Ball State@#15Central Michigan
47%
53%
27
0
✗
CMU −1.2
–
–
Final
#14BYU@New Mexico
74%
26%
27
23
✓
BYU −10.3
–
–
Final
California@West Virginia
74%
26%
28
21
✓
CAL −10.5
–
–
Final
Villanova@Clemson
19%
82%
0
31
✓
CLEM −15.0
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Colorado
4.2%
96%
7
55
✓
COLO −28.7
–
–
Final
Cornell@ColgateUpset
21%
79%
21
12
✗
Colgate −13.3
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Texas-Arlington
84%
16%
23
17
✓
ECU −16.2
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Toledo
58%
42%
17
12
✓
EMU −3.3
–
–
Final
#13Mississippi State@FloridaUpset
76%
24%
0
34
✗
MSST −11.3
–
–
Final
Furman@Appalachian State
25%
75%
52
34
✗
APP −11.2
–
–
Final
The Citadel@Georgia Tech
21%
79%
0
28
✓
GT −13.3
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Hawaii
18%
82%
33
42
✓
HAW −15.1
–
–
Final
Dartmouth@Holy Cross
52%
48%
0
35
✗
Dartmouth −0.8
–
–
Final
Houston@#9Florida StateUpset
15%
85%
27
21
✗
FSU −17.3
–
–
Final
Illinois@Syracuse
26%
74%
28
14
✗
SYR −10.6
–
–
Final
Drake@Iowa State
4.3%
96%
7
35
✓
ISU −28.5
–
–
Final
Air Force@Kansas State
53%
47%
21
34
✗
AF −1.1
–
–
Final
Ohio@Kent State
28%
72%
14
20
✓
KENT −10.0
–
–
Final
Lamar@Louisiana
16%
84%
16
23
✓
UL −16.9
–
–
Final
LSU@Rice
86%
14%
37
7
✓
LSU −18.2
–
–
Final
McNeese@Louisiana Tech
24%
76%
20
34
✓
LT −11.6
–
–
Final
Indiana State@Louisville
3.4%
97%
12
31
✓
LOU −30.3
–
–
Final
#23Kentucky@#18Maryland
38%
62%
3
20
✓
MD −5.2
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Kansas
55%
45%
38
6
✓
MIA −1.9
–
–
Final
Duke@#4Michigan
19%
81%
0
52
✓
MICH −14.7
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Ole Miss
49%
51%
13
16
✓
MISS −0.4
–
–
Final
#20Navy@Boston College
85%
15%
19
8
✓
NAVY −17.3
–
–
Final
#12Nebraska@Indiana
71%
29%
69
17
✓
NEB −9.2
–
–
Final
#24NC State@Wake Forest
84%
16%
34
10
✓
NCSU −16.1
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@North Texas
19%
80%
7
12
✓
UNT −14.4
–
–
Final
Illinois State@Northern Illinois
30%
70%
21
49
✓
NIU −9.0
–
–
Final
Purdue@#16Notre Dame
27%
73%
6
10
✓
ND −10.5
–
–
Final
Baylor@#17Ohio State
24%
76%
28
34
✓
OSU −12.1
–
–
Final
Missouri@#1Oklahoma
18%
82%
23
45
✓
OU −15.6
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Pacific
67%
33%
0
14
✗
Long Beach State −7.1
–
–
Final
TCU@#3Penn State
1.3%
99%
0
58
✓
PSU −36.9
–
–
Final
#21North Carolina@#7Pittsburgh
27%
73%
16
20
✓
PITT −10.4
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@RichmondUpset
81%
19%
28
51
✗
CIN −14.3
–
–
Final
Princeton@Rutgers
11%
89%
0
24
✓
RUTG −20.6
–
–
Final
Georgia@South Carolina
34%
66%
10
27
✓
SC −7.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Southern IllinoisUpset
80%
20%
39
43
✗
NMSU −14.2
–
–
Final
Tulane@#22Stanford
10%
90%
14
17
✓
STAN −21.0
–
–
Final
#6Texas@Texas Tech
66%
34%
24
7
✓
TEX −6.8
–
–
Final
Memphis@#10Texas A&M
13%
87%
0
58
✓
TA&M −18.6
–
–
Final
Minnesota@UCLA
26%
74%
3
17
✓
UCLA −10.9
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Utah
55%
45%
6
30
✗
CSU −2.1
–
–
Final
Utah State@Wyoming
60%
40%
20
13
✓
USU −4.0
–
–
Final
VMI@Virginia
60%
40%
17
9
✓
VMI −4.1
–
–
Final
William & Mary@Virginia Tech
47%
53%
19
22
✓
VT −1.3
–
–
Final
#25Washington@Oregon State
75%
25%
34
0
✓
WASH −11.0
–
–
Final
Army@#19Washington State
12%
88%
21
21
✗
WSU −19.2
–
–
Final
Marshall@Western Carolina
42%
58%
14
21
✓
Western Carolina −3.3
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Western Michigan
61%
39%
20
24
✗
BGSU −4.4
–
–
Final
Wichita State@West Texas
61%
39%
38
37
✓
Wichita State −4.7
–
–
Final
Oregon@Wisconsin
18%
82%
19
22
✓
WIS −15.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Fri, Sep 29 · TBD Lehigh at Pennsylvania Lehigh −7.6 68%
Sat, Sep 30 · TBD Cal Poly at Fresno State Fresno State −28.8 96%
Sat, Sep 30 · TBD Middle Tennessee at Chattanooga Chattanooga −15.4 82%
Sat, Sep 30 · TBD Lafayette at Columbia Columbia −9.2 71%
Sat, Sep 30 · TBD Miami (OH) at Dayton Miami (OH) −1.1 53%
Sat, Sep 30 · TBD UMass at Harvard UMass −7.3 67%
Sat, Sep 30 · TBD Louisiana-Monroe at Northwestern State Northwestern State −4.5 60%
Sat, Sep 30 · TBD Rhode Island at Brown Brown −4.2 60%
Sat, Sep 30 · TBD Santa Clara at San Jose State San Jose State −17.6 86%
Sat, Sep 30 · TBD Delaware at Temple Temple −4.2 60%
Sat, Sep 30 · TBD UConn at Yale Yale −28.4 96%