The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 1978

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 71 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

23 upsets against 19.3 expected

  • Biggest shockUTEP over San Diego State4.3% chance · won 31-24
  • Runner-upAlcorn State over Central Michigan5.2% chance · won 24-16
  • Runner-upKansas over UCLA9.3% chance · won 28-24

Upsets

Sat, Sep 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 61 games

Final
Richmond@Appalachian State
20%
80%
19
24
✓
APP −14.0
–
–
Final
#6Arkansas@Oklahoma State
91%
8.9%
19
7
✓
ARK −22.2
–
–
Final
Drake@Arkansas State
24%
76%
0
10
✓
ARST −11.9
–
–
Final
Auburn@Virginia Tech
49%
51%
18
7
✗
VT −0.5
–
–
Final
Toledo@#10Ball State
1.0%
99%
0
20
✓
BALL −38.5
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#19BYU
26%
74%
6
32
✓
BYU −10.7
–
–
Final
Pacific@California
5.2%
95%
6
24
✓
CAL −27.0
–
–
Final
Chattanooga@Marshall
87%
13%
27
23
✓
Chattanooga −18.4
–
–
Final
VMI@The Citadel
70%
30%
3
14
✗
VMI −8.8
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Colorado
17%
83%
7
22
✓
COLO −15.8
–
–
Final
Columbia@Harvard
32%
68%
21
19
✗
Harvard −7.8
–
–
Final
Pennsylvania@Dartmouth
40%
60%
21
31
✓
Dartmouth −4.1
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Duke
49%
51%
12
16
✓
DUKE −0.7
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Louisiana
65%
35%
38
9
✓
ECU −6.3
–
–
Final
Indiana State@Eastern Michigan
38%
62%
8
27
✓
EMU −5.3
–
–
Final
#8Florida State@Miami (FL)
88%
12%
31
21
✓
FSU −19.6
–
–
Final
#16Clemson@GeorgiaUpset
76%
24%
0
12
✗
CLEM −11.3
–
–
Final
Tulane@Georgia Tech
33%
67%
17
27
✓
GT −7.3
–
–
Final
Holy Cross@Air ForceUpset
23%
77%
35
18
✗
AF −12.4
–
–
Final
Utah@Houston
40%
60%
25
42
✓
HOU −4.4
–
–
Final
#17Washington@IndianaUpset
72%
28%
7
14
✗
WASH −9.8
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Iowa
58%
42%
31
0
✓
ISU −3.1
–
–
Final
#18UCLA@KansasUpset
91%
9.3%
24
28
✗
UCLA −21.8
–
–
Final
Illinois State@Kent State
23%
77%
3
34
✓
KENT −12.2
–
–
Final
Baylor@#20Kentucky
22%
78%
21
25
✓
UK −13.0
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@LSU
9.1%
91%
11
13
✓
LSU −22.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Texas-Arlington
83%
17%
28
21
✓
LT −15.6
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Louisiana-Monroe
49%
51%
10
27
✓
ULM −0.7
–
–
Final
Louisville@Cincinnati
38%
62%
28
14
✗
CIN −5.4
–
–
Final
#21Maryland@#23North Carolina
45%
55%
21
20
✗
UNC −2.2
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Miami (OH)
48%
52%
3
7
✓
M-OH −1.2
–
–
Final
#9Michigan@#11Notre Dame
45%
55%
28
14
✗
ND −2.3
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Michigan State
29%
71%
21
49
✓
MSU −9.3
–
–
Final
#25Mississippi State@Memphis
57%
43%
44
14
✓
MSST −2.8
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Missouri
43%
57%
14
45
✓
MIZ −2.9
–
–
Final
UNLV@New Mexico
29%
71%
0
24
✓
UNM −9.2
–
–
Final
West Virginia@NC State
13%
87%
15
29
✓
NCSU −18.8
–
–
Final
North Texas@New Mexico State
78%
22%
22
21
✓
UNT −12.9
–
–
Final
Ohio State@Minnesota
60%
40%
27
10
✓
OSU −3.9
–
–
Final
Rice@#5Oklahoma
1.0%
99%
7
66
✓
OU −38.4
–
–
Final
Tennessee@Oregon State
54%
46%
13
13
✓
TENN −1.4
–
–
Final
SMU@#2Penn State
13%
87%
21
26
✓
PSU −19.0
–
–
Final
Temple@#4Pittsburgh
11%
89%
12
20
✓
PITT −20.1
–
–
Final
Cornell@Princeton
27%
73%
14
14
✗
Princeton −10.3
–
–
Final
Ohio@Purdue
18%
82%
0
24
✓
PUR −15.3
–
–
Final
#13USC@#1AlabamaUpset
22%
78%
24
14
✗
ALA −12.7
–
–
Final
West Texas@Southern IllinoisUpset
80%
20%
3
17
✗
West Texas −13.7
–
–
Final
Stanford@Illinois
85%
15%
35
10
✓
STAN −17.0
–
–
Final
Wyoming@#3Texas
4.8%
95%
3
17
✓
TEX −27.7
–
–
Final
#24Texas A&M@Boston College
78%
22%
37
2
✓
TA&M −12.6
–
–
Final
TCU@Oregon
36%
64%
14
10
✗
ORE −6.0
–
–
Final
Arizona@Texas Tech
50%
50%
26
41
✗
TTU −0.1
–
–
Final
#22San Diego State@UTEPUpset
96%
4.3%
24
31
✗
SDSU −28.4
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Tulsa
31%
69%
14
24
✓
TLSA −8.4
–
–
Final
#15Fresno State@Utah StateUpset
78%
22%
22
45
✗
FRES −12.7
–
–
Final
Furman@Vanderbilt
35%
65%
10
17
✓
VAN −6.6
–
–
Final
Virginia@ArmyUpset
10%
90%
21
17
✗
ARMY −21.1
–
–
Final
#14Arizona State@Washington StateUpset
58%
42%
26
51
✗
ASU −3.1
–
–
Final
William & Mary@Villanova
51%
49%
21
17
✓
William & Mary −0.2
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Northwestern
64%
36%
28
7
✓
WIS −5.8
–
–
Final
Yale@Brown
49%
51%
21
0
✗
Brown −0.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 23 · TBD #7 Central Michigan at Alcorn State Central Michigan −26.8 95%
Sat, Sep 23 · TBD Grand Valley State at Bowling Green Bowling Green −16.2 83%
Sat, Sep 23 · TBD Cal State Fullerton at Cal Poly Cal Poly −0.1 50%
Sat, Sep 23 · TBD Stephen F. Austin at Lamar Lamar −0.9 52%
Sat, Sep 23 · TBD Colgate at Lehigh Lehigh −0.8 52%
Sat, Sep 23 · TBD Navy at UConn Navy −24.0 93%
Sat, Sep 23 · TBD McNeese at Northwestern State McNeese −7.4 68%
Sat, Sep 23 · TBD Rutgers at Bucknell Rutgers −21.3 90%
Sat, Sep 23 · TBD Elon at Western Carolina Western Carolina −13.4 79%
Sat, Sep 23 · TBD Idaho at Wichita State Wichita State −18.2 86%