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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 1978

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 70 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

21 upsets against 17.9 expected

  • Biggest shockWeber State over Utah State3.5% chance · won 44-25
  • Runner-upWisconsin over Purdue10% chance · won 24-24
  • Runner-upOregon State over UCLA16% chance · won 15-13

Upsets

Sat, Nov 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 62 games

Final
#22LSU@#4Alabama
20%
80%
10
31
✓
ALA −13.1
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@VMI
42%
58%
31
10
✗
VMI −2.6
–
–
Final
Arizona@Oregon
62%
38%
24
3
✓
ARIZ −5.1
–
–
Final
#12Arkansas@Baylor
69%
31%
27
14
✓
ARK −8.3
–
–
Final
Boston College@Army
34%
66%
26
29
✓
ARMY −6.2
–
–
Final
Auburn@Mississippi State
27%
73%
6
0
✗
MSST −9.2
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@#17Ball State
18%
82%
14
20
✓
BALL −13.9
–
–
Final
San Diego State@#24BYU
21%
79%
3
21
✓
BYU −12.6
–
–
Final
Washington State@California
36%
64%
14
22
✓
CAL −5.3
–
–
Final
#23Central Michigan@Eastern Michigan
91%
8.9%
41
9
✓
CMU −22.0
–
–
Final
Richmond@Chattanooga
15%
85%
3
30
✓
Chattanooga −16.0
–
–
Final
Ohio@Cincinnati
13%
87%
0
35
✓
CIN −17.7
–
–
Final
North Carolina@#8Clemson
12%
88%
9
13
✓
CLEM −18.1
–
–
Final
Colorado State@New MexicoUpset
21%
79%
26
15
✗
UNM −12.2
–
–
Final
Cornell@Columbia
55%
45%
35
14
✓
Cornell −2.4
–
–
Final
Dartmouth@Brown
34%
66%
31
21
✗
Brown −6.2
–
–
Final
West Texas@Drake
52%
48%
21
24
✗
West Texas −1.3
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Duke
27%
73%
0
3
✓
DUKE −9.5
–
–
Final
William & Mary@East Carolina
24%
76%
3
20
✓
ECU −10.7
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@#18Florida State
8.9%
91%
14
24
✓
FSU −21.1
–
–
Final
Furman@Western Carolina
44%
56%
24
7
✗
Western Carolina −1.8
–
–
Final
Florida@Georgia
39%
61%
22
24
✓
UGA −3.9
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Air Force
83%
17%
42
21
✓
GT −15.6
–
–
Final
Harvard@Pennsylvania
43%
57%
17
13
✗
Pennsylvania −2.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Hawaii
32%
68%
20
35
✓
HAW −7.2
–
–
Final
#13Houston@#7Texas
34%
66%
10
7
✗
TEX −6.2
–
–
Final
Indiana State@Illinois State
57%
43%
14
27
✗
Indiana State −3.2
–
–
Final
Iowa@Indiana
24%
76%
14
34
✓
IU −10.7
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Oklahoma State
53%
47%
28
15
✓
ISU −1.5
–
–
Final
Colorado@Kansas StateUpset
82%
18%
10
20
✗
COLO −14.9
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Kentucky
5.1%
95%
2
53
✓
UK −25.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana Tech
22%
78%
10
24
✓
LT −12.0
–
–
Final
#10Maryland@Virginia
95%
5.2%
17
7
✓
MD −26.4
–
–
Final
McNeese@Lamar
89%
11%
24
23
✓
McNeese −20.1
–
–
Final
Memphis@LouisvilleUpset
17%
83%
29
22
✗
LOU −14.8
–
–
Final
Kent State@Miami (OH)
12%
88%
13
38
✓
M-OH −18.4
–
–
Final
#5Michigan@Northwestern
>99%
0.2%
59
14
✓
MICH −45.6
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#11Michigan State
7.9%
92%
9
33
✓
MSU −22.2
–
–
Final
Tulane@Ole Miss
45%
55%
3
13
✓
MISS −1.6
–
–
Final
Kansas@Missouri
8.4%
92%
0
48
✓
MIZ −21.7
–
–
Final
#2Oklahoma@#3Nebraska
46%
54%
14
17
✓
NEB −1.1
–
–
Final
Wyoming@UNLV
46%
54%
10
12
✓
UNLV −1.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@North Texas
8.9%
91%
6
28
✓
UNT −21.2
–
–
Final
Tennessee@#9Notre Dame
12%
88%
14
31
✓
ND −18.8
–
–
Final
Illinois@#16Ohio State
3.2%
97%
7
45
✓
OSU −29.3
–
–
Final
#19UCLA@Oregon StateUpset
84%
16%
13
15
✗
UCLA −16.1
–
–
Final
NC State@#1Penn State
12%
88%
10
19
✓
PSU −18.3
–
–
Final
West Virginia@#15Pittsburgh
6.9%
93%
7
52
✓
PITT −23.3
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Purdue
10.0%
90%
24
24
✗
PUR −20.0
–
–
Final
Temple@Rutgers
39%
61%
10
13
✓
RUTG −4.0
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Pacific
40%
60%
33
31
✗
Pacific −3.6
–
–
Final
#14Washington@#6USC
29%
71%
10
28
✓
USC −8.4
–
–
Final
Marshall@Southern Illinois
35%
65%
14
15
✓
Southern Illinois −5.8
–
–
Final
SMU@Rice
88%
12%
58
0
✓
SMU −19.4
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Southern Miss
39%
61%
21
38
✓
USM −3.9
–
–
Final
#25Stanford@Arizona State
44%
56%
21
14
✗
ASU −1.9
–
–
Final
#20Navy@SyracuseUpset
81%
19%
17
20
✗
NAVY −14.6
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@TCU
89%
11%
27
17
✓
TTU −20.1
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Toledo
58%
42%
16
35
✗
NIU −3.7
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Wichita State
70%
30%
27
13
✓
TLSA −9.0
–
–
Final
Utah@UTEP
82%
18%
38
0
✓
UTAH −14.8
–
–
Final
Princeton@Yale
16%
84%
7
23
✓
Yale −15.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 11 · TBD Colgate at Bucknell Colgate −6.2 64%
Sat, Nov 11 · TBD Cal State Fullerton at Cal State Northridge Cal State Northridge −0.4 52%
Sat, Nov 11 · TBD Wofford at The Citadel The Citadel −12.8 80%
Sat, Nov 11 · TBD Villanova at Delaware Delaware −3.8 61%
Sat, Nov 11 · TBD Louisiana at Northwestern State Louisiana −7.5 67%
Sat, Nov 11 · TBD UMass at Holy Cross Holy Cross −6.0 66%
Sat, Nov 11 · TBD Montana State at Fresno State Montana State −3.9 58%
Sat, Nov 11 · TBD Weber State at Utah State Utah State −28.8 96%